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Eight big predictions for the 2016 NBA Draft
Kris Dunn from Providence looks like a lock as a top 10 pick tonight. Daniel Zuchnik/Getty Images

Eight big predictions for the 2016 NBA Draft

For better or worse, tonight could be the night that determines the course of your favorite NBA team's future for the next decade. It’s draft night in the NBA, and with that comes a great deal of excitement and uncertainty. For the Philadelphia 76ers and Los Angeles Lakers, who own the first and second overall picks respectively, it appears both franchises are in positions to grab future All-Stars in Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram.

Past the first two picks, however, it’s hard to gauge who else in this draft is going to become a great NBA player. Jamal Murray, Kris Dunn and Dragan Bender could all turn out to be All-Stars but could just as easily go bust. Despite the sense of unpredictability that lies beyond the second overall pick, we’re going to make some sense of it. Here are eight predictions for tonight’s NBA Draft.

1) The Celtics trade the third overall pick

If there’s one thing you can be just about 100 percent sure of, it’s that the Boston Celtics will do everything they can to trade their third overall pick. The pick is in no-man's land as it sits just outside of Simmons and Ingram, and the Celtics are no longer looking to get younger. Boston has been looking to add a legitimate star to its roster for quite some time now, and the third overall pick is the best asset to acquire such a player.

Unfortunately for Celtics general manager Danny Ainge, there doesn’t appear to be a star out there to be had for the third pick. The Kings are doing everything they can to hold on to DeMarcus Cousins, it’s too soon for the Cavs to trade Kevin Love and it’s going to take a far more grand offer for a team to pull Jimmy Butler away from the Bulls.

It's much more likely that the Celts will work out a deal with the 76ers for center Jahlil Okafor, or a team like the Minnesota Timberwolves will find a way to trade up to Boston’s spot. Regardless, however…

2) Kris Dunn is selected with the third pick

With just a few hours to go before the draft commences, the general consensus appears to be that Kris Dunn will be the third player taken. Besides the fact that most teams have him rated as the third best player in the draft, you can expect this to happen for several reasons.

First of all, if the Celtics do trade down, it will likely be with a team that covets Dunn. The 76ers, Timberwolves, Pelicans and Kings are all teams that would love to have the draft rights to the Providence guard at the end of the night. The best way to accomplish such a task would be to make a deal with Boston.

Secondly, even if the Celtics don’t trade their pick, there’s still a great chance they’ll select Dunn. Taking Dunn third overall and holding out for a better offer isn’t a poor strategy by any means. He’s a young player multiple teams are after, and the Celtics hold his fate.

3) Buddy Hield will fall out of the top five

Sorry, college basketball fans, but the NBA is a different kind of monster than what you see year after year in March Madness. Yes, Buddy Hield is a lights-out shooter, and for that reason alone he’ll be a quality NBA player. The real question is what else can he do?

Hield stands at just six-feet-three-inches, not great size for a shooting guard. His athleticism can make up for some of this, but in the NBA, size matters. Also, Hield never stood out during his time at Oklahoma for his defense. Combine this with the fact that he isn’t a natural passer, and it’s hard to envision what Buddy Hield will be able to do in the NBA other than score. It’s a good skill to have, but there are other important areas of the game of basketball where Hield is lacking. And for that, he’ll fall out of the top five.

4) Dragan Bender is the first international player taken

He’s not the next Kristaps Porzings, but for almost a year now, Dragan Bender of Croatia has been the consensus top international prospect. He could theoretically go as high as third to Boston, but it’s much more likely that the 18-year-old power forward will fall somewhere in the four to seven range, with the Suns and Nuggets looking like natural fits. On a night filled with uncertainty, you can be assured that Dragan Bender will be the first international prospect taken.

5) Jaylen Brown falls into the Kings’ lap

Swingman Jaylen Brown has the size, athleticism and physicality teams look for in a high-end wing player. However, from picks four through seven, Brown just isn’t a fit for any of the teams drafting. So expect the Cal-Berkeley product to fall squarely into the Sacramento Kings’ lap at the eight spot. The Kings need stronger play along the perimeter, in particular on defense, and Jaylen Brown is the man to provide such services.

6) Skal Labissiere is the first center taken

Although Utah center Jakob Poeltl looks like a surefire NBA starter, he doesn’t have the upside that Kentucky center Skal Labissiere has. A year ago, many scouts pegged Labissiere as a top three pick for the 2016 Draft, but a dismal freshman season at Kentucky saw the seven-footer's stock drop.

Labissiere is a project but one who could be worth the time and patience. If the Bucks at 10th overall or the Magic at 11th are interested in taking a player with supreme upside on the defensive side of the floor, nabbing Labissiere should be their top priority.

7) Thon Maker is not taken in the first round

YouTube sensation Thon Maker was supposed to be a freshman in college in the fall. However, the South Sudan-born player lobbied the NBA for eligibility in the 2016 NBA Draft, which he was granted in April. Maker, the rare seven-footer who can handle the basketball, was thought to be a potential lottery pick, but his stock has dropped dramatically over the past week for one major reason: his age.

Maker is documented as being 19 years old, but reports have been circling that many NBA teams believe he is actually as old as 23. The gap between the ages of 19 and 23 eliminates a tremendous amount of room for a player to grow. This red flag will be too much for NBA teams to ignore. It would be very surprising if an NBA team was a willing to take the chance of using a first-round pick, which comes with a guaranteed contract, on Maker.

8) Diamond Stone sneaks into the first round

Similar to Skal Labissiere, center Diamond Stone was one of the most sought-after basketball prospects in the nation coming out of high school. However, a lukewarm year at Maryland and character concerns have caused a player with lottery-level talent to find himself on the outside looking in on the first round.

Still, Stone has innate athletic and basketball abilities that no coach can ever teach. Some team will find taking a chance on him at the end of the first round is worth the risk.

Can you name the top three overall picks in every NBA Draft since 1985?
SCORE:
0/111
TIME:
10:00
1985-NYK
Patrick Ewing
1985-IND
Wayman Tisdale
1985-LAC
Benoit Benjamin
1986-CLE
Brad Daugherty
1986-BOS
Len Bias
1986-GSW
Chris Washburn
1987-SAS
David Robinson
1987-PHO
Armen Gilliam
1987-NJN
Dennis Hopson
1988-LAC
Danny Manning
1988-IND
Rik Smits
1988-PHI
Charles Smith
1989-SAC
Pervis Ellison
1989-LAC
Danny Ferry
1989-SAS
Sean Elliott
1990-NJN
Derrick Coleman
1990-SEA
Gary Payton
1990-DEN
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf
1991-CHH
Larry Johnson
1991-NJN
Kenny Anderson
1991-SAC
Billy Owens
1992-ORL
Shaquille O'Neal
1992-CHH
Alonzo Mourning
1992-MIN
Christian Laettner
1993-ORL
Chris Webber
1993-PHI
Shawn Bradley
1993-GSW
Anfernee Hardaway
1994-MIL
Glenn Robinson
1994-DAL
Jason Kidd
1994-DET
Grant Hill
1995-GSW
Joe Smith
1995-LAC
Antonio McDyess
1995-PHI
Jerry Stackhouse
1996-PHI
Allen Iverson
1996-TOR
Marcus Camby
1996-VAN
Shareef Abdur-Rahim
1997-SAS
Tim Duncan
1997-PHI
Keith Van Horn
1997-BOS
Chauncey Billups
1998-LAC
Michael Olowokandi
1998-VAN
Mike Bibby
1998-DEN
Raef LaFrentz
1999-CHI
Elton Brand
1999-VAN
Steve Francis
1999-CHH
Baron Davis
2000-NJN
Kenyon Martin
2000-VAN
Stromile Swift
2000-LAC
Darius Miles
2001-WAS
Kwame Brown
2001-LAC
Tyson Chandler
2001-ATL
Pau Gasol
2002-HOU
Yao Ming
2002-CHI
Jay Williams
2002-GSW
Mike Dunleavy
2003-CLE
LeBron James
2003-DET
Darko Milicic
2003-DEN
Carmelo Anthony
2004-ORL
Dwight Howard
2004-CHA
Emeka Okafor
2004-CHI
Ben Gordon
2005-MIL
Andrew Bogut
2005-ATL
Marvin Williams
2005-UTA
Deron Williams
2006-TOR
Andrea Bargnani
2006-CHI
LaMarcus Aldridge
2006-CHA
Adam Morrison
2007-POR
Greg Oden
2007-SEA
Kevin Durant
2007-ATL
Al Horford
2008-CHI
Derrick Rose
2008-MIA
Michael Beasley
2008-MIN
O.J. Mayo
2009-LAC
Blake Griffin
2009-MEM
Hasheem Thabeet
2009-OKC
James Harden
2010-WAS
John Wall
2010-PHI
Evan Turner
2010-NJN
Derrick Favors
2011-CLE
Kyrie Irving
2011-MIN
Derrick Williams
2011-UTA
Enes Kanter
2012-NOH
Anthony Davis
2012-CHA
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
2012-WAS
Bradley Beal
2013-CLE
Anthony Bennett
2013-ORL
Victor Oladipo
2013-WAS
Otto Porter
2014-CLE
Andrew Wiggins
2014-MIL
Jabari Parker
2014-PHI
Joel Embiid
2015-MIN
Karl-Anthony Towns
2015-LAL
D'Angelo Russell
2015-PHI
Jahlil Okafor
2016-PHI
Ben Simmons
2016-LAL
Brandon Ingram
2016-BOS
Jaylen Brown
2017-PHI
Markelle Fultz
2017-LAL
Lonzo Ball
2017-BOS
Jayson Tatum
2018-PHO
Deandre Ayton
2018-SAC
Marvin Bagley
2018-ATL
Luka Doncic
2019-NOP
Zion Williamson
2019-MEM
Ja Morant
2019-NYK
RJ Barrett
2020-MIN
Anthony Edwards
2020-GSW
James Wiseman
2020-CHO
LaMelo Ball
2021-DET
Cade Cunningham
2021-HOU
Jalen Green
2021-CLE
Evan Mobley

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