College basketball best bets: 6 Thursday late-night picks 

New Mexico State vs. Western Kentucky

Thursday, March 14, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN+
Western Kentucky -6 (BetRivers)

By Brett Pund

If you read my Conference USA Tournament preview, one of my favorite betting angles was to bet against both FIU and New Mexico State. I’m sticking with that here by fading the Aggies.

On the road in CUSA play, only Middle Tennessee and FIU are rated lower by BartTorvik, with all three very similar. NMSU also won only one of its seven road games in league play, and the losses were not very competitive.

The Aggies lost six of those by double digits, outscored on average on the road by 16.14 points per game. When you add it all up, this is the same team that only covered the spread once away from home, which came against Jacksonville State.

I also just struggle to see how NMSU finds consistent scoring in this one. In CUSA action, the Aggies are last in AdjO, effective field-goal percentage, PPP and 3-point percentage.

New Mexico State also has to be able to attack the basket to be successful. The Aggies score over 50% of their points from 2-pointers.

However, WKU ranks in the top 100 in the percentage of opponents’ points that come from inside the arc. The Hilltoppers are also third in the conference in opponents 2-point percentage.

If you’re building a moneyline parlay, the Tops would be a great entry, but I also think they have enough to cover this spread too.

Pick: Western Kentucky -6 (Play to -9)

Boston College vs. Virginia

Thursday, March 14, 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Virginia -4 (FanDuel)

By Mike McNamara

Virginia likely needs one win in the ACC Tournament to punch its ticket to the Big Dance, and as a result, I think it got a big break last night with BC upsetting Clemson.

The Eagles are a good matchup for Tony Bennett’s pack-line defense, which really forces offenses to be methodical and make shots from outside to score.

In the only regular-season meeting between these two, UVA won in Chestnut Hill, 72-68.

Reece Beekman was a monster in that game, going for 18 points, eight assists and five rebounds.

I think you’ll see the Cavaliers come out really sharp and energized in this one, knowing exactly what’s on the line.

Boston College has been a nice story to start this tournament, already rattling off two wins, but the third game in as many nights could always mean some potential fatigue issues.

Virginia is hardly a joy to watch on the offensive end, but I think its defense will be the best unit on the floor for 40 minutes, and the Hoos will be able to score it enough to pull away.

I’d back UVA up to -5.

Pick: Virginia -4 (Play to -5)

Bethune-Cookman vs. Southern

Thursday, March 14, 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+
Southern -3.5 (BetMGM)

By Patrick Strollo

The No. 4 seed Southern Jaguars will face the No. 5 seed Bethune-Cookman Wildcats in the opening round of the SWAC tournament.

This will be the third meeting between these two programs this season, and Southern will be looking for redemption after dropping both contests.

Even though Bethune-Cookman has gotten the best of Southern this year, I think this is a good spot to back the Jaguars for a bounce back.

Southern has the best defense in the SWAC, as measured by Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, allowing just 103.3 points per 100 possessions.

The Jaguars’ defense is excellent at forcing turnovers, ranking ninth in the nation in takeaways by forcing a turnover on 22.3% of plays.

In addition to forcing turnovers, Southern has an excellent 3-point defense (second in SWAC) and hasn’t realized its full potential in two losses to Bethune-Cookman this year.

Both offenses are nearly identical in terms of efficiency, so I like backing the league’s best defense in this contest.

My model has Southern as a 4.5-point favorite in this neutral-court contest, and I like laying the chalk up to that number as the third time should be a charm between these two schools.

Pick: Southern -3.5 (Play to -4.5)

UC Riverside vs. Long Beach State

Thursday, March 14, 11:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+
UC Riverside +3 (DraftKings)

By Sean Paul

This second-round Big West Tournament matchup features the coldest team in the tourney in Long Beach State against the hottest team in UC Riverside.

Long Beach State lost its final five games in Big West play, while UC Riverside won seven of its final nine conference games and secured one conference tourney win.

Mike Magpayo’s squad cobbled together a double-digit comeback against Bakersfield yesterday, after trailing by 19 in the first half. The Highlanders' second-half shooting surge changed the tide, as they shot 11-of-23 from 3 for the game.

Shooting is why I’m backing Riverside again. Long Beach State allows 3-point attempts on 44% of opponent’s field-goal attempts, which plays right into Riverside’s hands.

Plus, what’s the motivation factor for the Beach? Dan Monson already got canned.

Freshman phenoms Barrington Hargress and Kaleb Smith are getting hot at the perfect time for Riverside. Hargress leads the Highlanders in scoring and assists and is coming off a 20-point, six-assist outing in the first-round matchup.

It took Smith time to get into the starting lineup, but he’s scored 14-plus points in the past two games. He’s brought a little extra shooting to Magpayo’s lineup.

I think Riverside has a great shot of winning, but I’ll roll with the points for a conservative bet.

Pick: UC Riverside +3 (Play to +2)

SFA vs. UT Arlington

Thursday, March 14, 11:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+
UT Arlington -2 (Bet365)

By Sean Paul

Stephen F. Austin avoided overtime in the first round of the WAC Tournament, courtesy of AJ Cajuste drilling the game-winner with about 0.2 left when the ball left his hands.

UT Arlington and SFA split the season series, but UTA didn’t have DaJuan Gordon and Phillip Russell in the first meeting. Having those two scorers in the fold changes the dynamic for first-year head coach KT Turner.

Both teams turned it over 20-plus times in the second game when the Mavs won.

Turnovers are a concern for the Mavericks, who give the ball away on 21% of possessions. That’s a recipe for disaster against the relentless pressure from the Lumberjacks. Similarly, UT Arlington forces turnovers on 19% of defensive possessions, so SFA could cough the ball up as well.

UT Arlington needs the perimeter shots to fall. The Mavs attempt 3s on 41% of field-goal attempts, led by Makaih Williams shooting 42% and Russell shooting 38%.

I don’t think Stephen F. Austin can score enough to keep pace with UTA’s shooting.

I’m backing the scalding hot team against a program that ranks 79th in defensive efficiency and 239th in offensive efficiency. I just can’t take the Lumberjacks’ terrible offense here.

Pick: UT Arlington -2 (Play to -2.5)

Utah vs. Colorado

Thursday, March 14, 11:30 p.m. ET, FS1
Colorado -3.5 (BetMGM)

By Doug Ziefel

If you read my Pac-12 Tournament betting preview, you would know that the Colorado Buffaloes are a team that can win this whole thing. Their journey to do that starts tonight against the Utah Utes.

These two teams split the season series, but the Buffaloes made a statement in the second meeting by winning by 24. It's not a coincidence that their big win was also the last time we saw Colorado star freshman Cody Williams.

Williams makes this team dynamic when he’s on the floor, and all signs point to him returning tonight after practicing all week. His scoring ability will only amplify a Colorado team that was red-hot in this absence, rattling off six straight wins to close out the year.

While the Utes can't be overlooked, they’re going to lose one key area in this matchup: the rebound column.

Despite being the taller team in terms of average height, Utah is not on the same level as Colorado when it comes to rebounding. This edge will allow the Buffs to clean up misses and control the tempo off defensive boards.

If Bufflao can limit turnovers and stay out of their own way, they should cruise to the semifinals.

Pick: Colorado -3.5 (Play to -4.5)