College basketball odds, pick for FAU vs. USF for Sunday, Feb. 18

FAU vs. USF Odds

Sunday, Feb. 18, Noon ET, ESPN

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here.

Florida Atlantic Owls

After making the Final Four a year ago, coach Dusty May brought back 14 of his 15 players to run it back for another season. The Owls are one of just five teams in the country to not have an incoming transfer on the roster.

One of those key returners is guard Johnell Davis, who's having another excellent season. He ranks fourth in the conference in scoring (18.52 PPG) and sits in the top 10 in rebounding (6.72).

Over the year, Davis has earned multiple accolades, including Associated Press National Player of the Week and AAC Player of the Week twice.

Another key piece that came back for May is starting center Vlad Goldin. The junior 7-footer ranks fifth in the country in field goal percentage at 64.3%.

South Florida Bulls

There are some big surprises and turnarounds around the country in college basketball, but none may be bigger than the job Amir Abdur-Rahim is doing at USF.

USF's 18 wins so far are the most by the school since the 2018-19 season. Its 11 victories in conference play are the second most in program history behind its 12 wins in the Big East in 2011-12.

The Bulls are also riding a 10-game winning streak into this pivotal matchup — the longest winning run since claiming 12 straight back in 1981.

Abdur-Rahim’s key man this season has been Chris Youngblood. For the season, he paces USF with 14.7 PPG while shooting over 82% from the free-throw line.

Because of their weak nonconference schedule, the Bulls need wins like this to improve their ranking in the NET.

Florida Atlantic vs. USF

Betting Pick & Prediction

As Stuckey likes to point out on the Big Bets on Campus podcast, it feels like every single FAU game is tied with two minutes to go. I also believe this is closer than the oddsmakers think.

So, my best bet is to take South Florida at +4 at DraftKings. I believe you can wait for a better number closer to tip, but I wouldn’t play it lower than +3.

The breakdown for this game starts and finishes with how Florida Atlantic has played in true road games. The Owls played one contest on an opponent’s floor before AAC play — a loss to an 11-win Florida Gulf Coast team.

In league action, FAU lost at Charlotte and UAB and needed overtime to win at Wichita State and UTSA. That doesn’t even include a one-point victory at Tulane.

Meanwhile, USF is perfect at home against AAC foes, which includes a solid win over the 49ers.

One worry I do have is the fact that this will be the best team the Bulls have played this season. They've won only one game over a Quad 1 opponent, which was the dramatic comeback victory at Memphis.

However, I’m buying into the solid form in league play. So, give me the home underdog to keep this one close or spring an upset.

Pick: USF +4 (Play to +3)