NCAAF News

Home

Teams

Quizzes

Newsletter

James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

NCAAF futures, Cal win totals: When will Bears come out of hibernation?

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 6/27/23

Aaron Rodgers is in the NFL news a lot and for good reason. I think what gets lost in his story is that he went to Cal and once upon a time Cal was a "power" in the Pac-12 (then Pac-10 — challenging USC). In 2004 they finished ninth in the national polls but have not had a season where they finished anywhere in the final rankings since 2006. That is unlikely to change in a very competitive league this season.

Head coach Justin Wilcox has been there for six seasons now with middling success. I am not sure how much better they can do, but he is under scrutiny, though perhaps the likes of USC and UCLA leaving help out the Bears in the long term. That is not until next year. This season they are still going to take some lumps.

2023 Cal Bears Win Total

Over 4.5 -150 / Under 4.5 +120

Since their last winning season, the Bears have won one, five, and four games. This number is suggesting that at the very least they can get back to the success they had two seasons ago. which is a very low bar. Right now Cal has evolved into a feeder school for other programs, turning over the roster significantly most years (though they have some continuity heading into this season). That does not mean that they are going to be demonstrably worse but it does make it harder to cycle up when/if you hit on the right quarterback and are experienced (or talented) at the right spots on the field. The markets say they should win more than a year ago. I am not so sure.

Cal has a tough schedule this season. They begin the year at North Texas and then host Auburn. As a representative of the Pac-12, they should beat the Mean Green with ease, but I am not totally sold on that. The only real gimme on the slate is a home game against Idaho. After those three they are into the Pac-12 schedule and it is not pretty. The Bears will be heavy underdogs on the road in all but one game, at rival Stanford the second to last week of the season. Stanford is in transition too, but they could be a lot better then than they are now. On the home slate, there is one for-sure loss to USC, but the rest are 50-50 games. They would need to win them all to get the over.

The Bears have no obvious strength to lean on this season. Wilcox is a defense guy but that side of the ball was in the bottom half of the league last season and there are no indicators that things are really improved from 2022. The offense was in the bottom half too and even though a number of starters return, they are replacing the quarterback with the two most likely candidates transfers that were not even at Berkeley last season. They might be more talented than the departed Chase Garbers, but that is hard to bet on right now. Until the offense is more effective it is hard to expect the defense to come through. That might be pessimistic but it is hard to feel the opposite with the Bears right now. I would go under today and maybe some positive news in fall camp gives us even more value on that side.

More must-reads: