Predicting the 2018 Grammy nominations

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Best Rap Album

Four time nominees with zero wins, perhaps Grammy can finally get around to recognizing one of the greatest, most pioneering rap groups ever to exist, as their surprise late-2016 comeback album topped the charts with zero radio support, proving their paths of rhythm still resonate all these years later. In short, the Recording Academy would be foolish not to at least recognize the Tribe's work.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Best Metal Performance

The exciting thing about post-"St. Anger"/"Lulu" Metallica has been their commitment to keeping it simple, keeping it raw. They had a few songs that were primed for eligibility last year, but songs like "Now That We're Dead" play straight down the line with their fans, and it would be surprising if they didn't snag at least one nod for Best Metal Performance.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: None.

Wait, what? Drake isn't going to get any Grammy nominations this year? Even after getting one of the covered Album of the Year nods last year for his mega-smash "Views"? Well as fate may have it, one has to actually submit your album for awards consideration, which, this year, he just didn't do. It happens sometimes – Frank Ocean did it last year –but whether intentional or no, don't expect to see Drizzy get any Grammy love this year (just fake love, maybe).

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Best Pop Solo Performance, Best Music Video, Producer of the Year (Non-Classical)

T-Swift made a big deal out of her 2016 acceptance speech for Album of the Year, indicating she was the first woman to pull off the hat trick twice (incidentally, she was followed by Adele the next year in this regard). Yet while someone's main goal in life shouldn't be to win Grammys, Swift is nonetheless cunning about it. Maybe she even remembers what U2 did back in the early 2000s, with "Beautiful Day" right at the eligibility cutoff one year and the parent album "All That You Can't Leave Behind" coming after. The end result? Nominations aplenty across two years, keeping the album and its singles in the spotlight long after they were released.

Thus, even with having 2017's best-selling album only four days after release, that album nonetheless came out after the Grammy eligibility period, meaning Swift's only hope at a nomination is with her critically-derided lead single. It topped the chart for three weeks, so look for this to get a lesser nomination like Best Pop Solo Performance – not one of the "big" major awards. (Her song with Zayn for the "Fifty Shades Darker" soundtrack, "I Don't Wanna Live Forever", might get a spoiler nomination for Best Song Written for Visual Media to boot.)

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Record of the Year

Even without the Justin Bieber remix, Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee's undisputed song of the summer was headed for greatness. Did you know that as of this writing, it is the most streamed song of all time? Despite all the love it received at the Latin Grammys, the original ceremony cannot deny the power of the biggest Latin crossover song of its generation. It's safe to say that without this, the J Balvin/Willy William/Beyoncé smash "Mi Gente" would never have taken off. Song of the Year is a songwriter's award, while Record of the Year celebrates songwriting, production, and performance. This is "Despacito's" natural fit.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Song of the Year, Best Country Solo Performance

Despite Sam Hunt's status as a cute little backwoods cutie-pie, this song was an absolute smash and one of the year's few mainstream country crossovers. While country albums did pretty well, Hunt's sexy little strut of a number topped Billboard's Hot Country Songs chart for twenty-four straight weeks – a record shared by only one other song: Florida Georgia Line's "Cruise." While FGL has yet to net a Grammy nomination, Sam Hunt pickin' up a little somethin' here and there just makes sense.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Best Rap Performance, Best Rap Song, Best New Artist

While Cardi B sells isn't dexterous wordplay but instead unquestionable attitude. "Bodak Yellow" may go down as one of rap music's most staggering breakout debuts, but for a song this aggressive, expect its nods to remain firmly in the rap categories – save, of course, the biggest lock for Best New Artist you've ever seen.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Best Rock Performance, Best Rock Song

There's an outside chance that this could break into one of the "Big Three" general categories, but any song that has verses starting with "first thing's first" and then "second thing's second" and then "third thing's third" (really, look it up) doesn't scream of stellar songwriting. Its status as hit is still undeniable, so look for the Dragon boys to at least snag a Best Rock Performance nod, if anything.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Record of the Year, Best New Artist, Best Rock Performance

Portugal. The Man really had a Modest Mouse-styled mainstream breakthrough with this, the lead single from their eight album. The interpolation of "Please, Mr. Postman" is pretty stellar, making this more of a production showcase than a real songwriting moment, which is why it has a chance in the Record of the Year category. But after eight albums, would this really be an artist viable for Best New Artist? Look no further than Fountains of Wayne or Shelby Lynne, artists who were nominated in this category several albums into their career. Remember, the "New" here basically means "coming into mainstream prominence for the first time", which Portugal absolutely did here.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Song of the Year, Best Pop Solo Performance

Here's another lead single/album split, where Smith's latest album came in after the eligibility period but the song swooped in before. Given it's a legit hit, given Smith's blue-eyed soul-pop is still connecting on the charts months after its release – meaning it's still fresh in Grammy voters' minds -- we can expect some love here, maybe even sneaking into the Song of the Year category. Admittedly, his song is a bit more of the same as to what he's given us before, but given he won four awards at the 2014 ceremony –including Best New Artist, Record of the Year, and Song of the Year – it's safe to say that Grammy won't be saying goodbye to him anytime soon.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Best Country Song, Best Country Album

Stapleton is no stranger to Grammy territory, walking into this year with two wins off of seven previous nominations. "From a Room: Volume 1," part of his two-tiered follow up his Best Country Album-winning "Traveller," didn't set the world on fire quite like that first album did (what with its redemptive songwriter-turned-main-artist narrative), but people still liked what they heard. "From a Room: Volume 1" pulled off its hat-trick of winning the CMA Award for Album of the Year just like "Traveller" did, so his country community has his back, but it's doubtful he'll receive another AOTY nod at the Grammys again. Look for a Best Country Album nod and maybe even win, while "Broken Halos" scoots its way into Best Country Song.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Best Pop Solo Performance

Give the girl a win, dagnabbit. Despite only one previous nomination, Demi has been playing the diva game for so long that it's amazing to think that "Sorry Not Sorry," her nineteenth single as a solo artist, has turned into her biggest hit to date. It's a bop and also an effective showcase for her powerhouse vocals, so maybe she can finally turn this into Grammy gold. Maybe.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Record of the Year, Song of the Year, Best Rap/Sung Performance, Best New Artist

It's hard to deny the influence of this song, cemented after all three artists involved did a show-stopping performance at this year's VMAs. Even with Logic getting a chart-topping album earlier this year, it's this song wrestling with the difficult topic of suicide that has connected with people the world over, sending the Suicide Prevention Hotline number that is the song title into some record-shattering days of call volume. That lush production doesn't hurt either, so even though it has an outside chance of winning, expect Logic to net nominations for Record of the Year, Song of the Year, and maybe even Best New Artist to boot.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Best Rap/Sung Performance

Of all the Soundcloud-originating artists to break into the mainstream this year... well, at least Post Malone is not gnash, right? Even with Post Malone likely still topping the charts with "Rockstar" when the actually Grammy nominations come out, "Congratulations" will likely still be ready to receive some Grammy love, and Best Rap/Sung Performance is its easiest target.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Best Music Video

It's hard to say explicitly what of the cloying, obvious Top 40 pop songs Maroon 5 put out this eligibility cycle will be nominated (fun as "Don't Wanna Know [ft. Kendrick Lamar]" is, boy did that get annoying real quick), but the genuinely psychedelic video for the single "Cold [ft. Future]" was the kind of thing that only artists with a big budget like Maroon 5 could afford, and it was worth every trippy moment of it.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Best Rap/Sung Performance

Despite topping the charts last year with "Black Beatles," the boys of Rae Sremmurd and long-standing rap stalwart French Montana have yet to see their names reflected in the glare of the golden gramophone There's a chance they may get denied yet again, but not too likely, given this multi-platinum smash would've topped the charts during any given non-"Despacito" summer.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Song of the Year, Best Rock Song

Remember: Shawn Mendes isn't even 20 years old yet and has already put out two chart-topping albums. He doesn't rely on guest spots or features to do what he does: just straight-up songwriting. Despite existing in a cycle where songs like "Mercy" have done well and play into his perpetual themes of power dynamics in a relationship, "There's Nothing Holding Me Back" is pretty undeniable as a pop music force, begging the question of whether this song will be submitted as either a pop or rock entry. We're guessing that if it doesn't rack up a Song of the Year nod, Best Rock Song is probably going to be its best fit.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Record of the Year, Best Pop Solo Performance

Say what you will about Charlie Puth – and there is a lot to say, both positive and negative – the kid knows how to produce. "Attention" is a self-produced creation, and unlike his previous critically-slammed hits, that thumping bassline is one of many notable elements that prove what a force Puth is behind the boards. With three nominations previously for "See You Again," a nomination in the Pop category could very well go down, but Record of the Year is also very much within his sights (for a nomination, definitely not a win).

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Best R&B Performance

What's a great way to help lock in a Grammy nomination? By copping a previous Grammy-winning song of course. In this case, the basis of DJ Khaled's monster Rihanna collaboration was recreating Carlos Santana's "Maria Maria" from scratch, using the same chord structure and instrumental tics while adding a nice heaping of RiRi all over it (oh, and Bryson Tiller is here too). It was a smash, but was it a critical darling? Absolutely not, but that won't stop it from at least picking up an R&B nod here or there.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Album of the Year, Record of the Year, Best Rap Performance, Best Rap/Sung Performance, Best Rap Song, Best Rap Album, Best Music Video, Producer of the Year (Non-Classical)

It's Kendrick's year, yet again. "Damn." is one of the year's best sellers, a critical favorite, a fan favorite, and also arguably his best release yet, which is amazing given how many other times you can say that about his discography. It's rare that a conscious rapper of Kendrick's ilk actually runs the rap game, but "Damn." was his commercial breakthrough in a way that his previous albums were not. So what kind of Grammy hardware can he look at? Album of the Year is a lock, leaving lead single "Humble" as the likely recipient of Record of the Year, Best Rap Performance, and probably even Best Music Video. Yet the Music Video duties could also go to the Don Cheadle-starring "DNA," which could pick up its own Best Rap Song nomination. Plus, the Rihanna collaboration "Loyalty" could snag a Best Rap/Sung Performance trophy easily. Then there's "Element" somewhere in the mix, too. Ya know what? Just play it safe and count on Kendrick to get a ton of nominations. That feels about right.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Album of the Year, Record of the Year, Song of the Year, Best Pop Vocal Album, Best Pop Solo Performance, Best Rock Performance

Here's your other big contender entering into Grammy night: Ed Sheeran's planet-swallowing pop zeitgeist moment. "Shape of You" was inescapable, and will likely get entered into every pop-related category it can get nominated in, to say nothing of his locks in Record and Song of the Year. With a little luck, "Castle on the Hill" might even sneak into the Best Rock Performance category to boot, and by being released just a few days before the eligibility cutoff, prom night ballad "Perfect" may also have a shot at the generals.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Record of the Year, Best R&B Performance

Despite a decorated Grammy history, Bruno Mars' "24K Magic" was a weirdly indulgent album, coming in at a concise nine tracks but featuring nothing but songs about the excesses Mars' success has allowed him. "24K Magic" was a hit, sure, but the slow-burning "That's What I Like" too a bit before it finally turned into a chart-topper, and its strut was far more relatable than his other blinged-out numbers like "Versace on the Floor." There's an outside chance he'll get an Album of the Year nod, but Record of the Year for "That's What I Like" is the safer bet.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Best Dance Recording

Alessia Cara has played her guest appearances pretty well this past year, so while she can expect to get a little somethin' for her guest appearance with Logic, this is as good as you can have as a lock for Best Dance Recording. It's still probably stuck in your head right now, isn't it?

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Best Music Video

As usual, Best Music Video is going to be a pretty competitive category, but with any luck, one of the best music videos of the year won't get lost in the shuffle. Daringly released, the video for this run-of-the-mill Young Thug track subverts narrative convention in unexpected ways, mainly due to the fact that Young Thug simply didn't show up for the shoot, forcing the director to get insanely creative. It's snarky, it's funny, and craziest of all, it's all true.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Best Alternative Album

There's a lot to say about Arcade Fire's bizarre, bungled album rollout campaign... but 'ya know what? We agree with you. It was weird. Yet a chart-topping album and headlining Lollapalooza spot are nothing to sniff at, and given they are currently four-for-four when it comes to Best Alternative Album nominations, they are a lock here.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Record of the Year, Best Pop Solo Performance, Best Pop Vocal Album

We might be hedging the bets a little here, but with that truly redemptive comeback narrative leading to a chart-topping album – to say nothing about how utterly diverse, fun, emotional, and thrilling that album was – Kesha is back, that's for sure. "Rainbow" is pretty much a lock for Best Pop Vocal Album, but given how react videos to that high note she hits on "Praying" went viral, there's a slight chance that Ryan Lewis-produced weeper might even sneak into one of the generals, like Record of the Year. It's a long shot, but if anyone deserves it, it's definitely, definitely Kesha.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Best Dance Recording, Best Dance/Electronic Album

The Chainsmokers were the belle of the ball last year, winning Best Dance Recording and getting a coveted Best New Artist nomination as well. Since then, boy did they get oversaturated. By focusing so hard on their party-bro-but-with-emotions brand of emo-EDM, they started to sound like a parody of themselves, leading to their full-length album being the lowest-rated 2017 release on Metacritic , behind Incubus, Katy Perry and Imagine Dragons. Still, that Coldplay collaboration marks Coldplay's second-highest charting song in history, so expect a couple of Dance nominations all around.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Best Rap Song

Earlier this year, Future pulled off a rare feat by releasing his new albums "Future" and "Hndrxx" a week apart, and, amazingly, they both went No.1  back to back. Their individual qualities are debatable, but the lead single "Mask Off" is not, that hypnotic flute sample serving as a stark basis for his constant rhymes about Percocet. He may not get a lot of Grammy love (his guest on Drake's "Views" netting him his only nomination so far), but this song may change that.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Best Dance Recording

Selena Gomez is at an interesting place in her career, moving into this distinct brand of minimalist pop craftsmanship while also guesting on the occasional monster song or two. This Kygo collaboration is pretty easy-breezy, but the fact that it comes off as effortless is the result of a lot of studio perfection. This seems like an easy nod for her and Kygo (but less likely a win). At least she can look forward to her Marshmello guest spot getting nominated in the same category next year...

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Best Pop Solo Performance

This is purely wishful thinking, but as one of 2017's best standalone pop songs this side of Tove Lo's "Disco T***" this Talking Heads-sampling little strut of come on may very well be the best song Gomez has ever written, a fact that's even more remarkable given her last album was full of instant-classics. The song struggled to get into the Billboard Top 20 (it managed), but with any luck, the Recording Academy will recognize the level that Gomez is operating on right now. Heck, even that Haim cover of it is a bop.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Best Rap Song

Having been working the mixtape circuit since 2014, Lil Uzi Vert had a breakout year in 2017, guesting on Migos' chart-topper "Bad and Boujee" and also landing his own Top 10 with this song talking about how all his friends are dead. The album is came from also topped the albums survey, but perhaps a Best Rap Song nomination will be enough to satisfy the Vert for the time being.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Best Rap/Sung Performance

Again, hedging our bets here, but after a great guest spot on Donnie Trumpet & the Social Experiment's "Surf" from 2015, Kyle's breezy, funny introduction to the masses "iSpy" left us feeling filled with warmth and sunshine in our hearts. Lil Yachty must be feeling pretty good too, 'cos he could also maybe score a nomination for appearing on D.R.A.M.'s "Broccoli."

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Album of the Year, Record of the Year, Best Rap Performance, Best Rap Album, Best New Artist

Although they've been around since 2011, Migos had an absolute breakout year in 2017. Donald Glover gave their song "Bad and Boujee" a shoutout from the Golden Globes stage, their album "Culture" topped the charts, member Offset engaged in a high-profile romance with Cardi B, and Quavo (born Quavious Keyate Marshall) appeared on three other Top 10 songs in 2017 alone, rubbing shoulders with Justin Bieber, Katy Perry, Chance the Rapper, and Drake. Love them or hate them, they're a lock in multiple Grammy categories, potential winners of every rap nomination they get their hands on.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Album of the Year, Record of the Year, Best Dance Recording, Best Pop Duo/Group Performance, Best Urban Contemporary Album

This is your other big Album of the Year lock next to Kendrick and Sheeran. The real question is how the rest of his song nominations will be split up, because while "Starboy" will repeat its Best Urban Contemporary Album nomination that his last album did, the rest of his songs are more poppy and dance-oriented than his previous efforts, making you wonder if "Starboy" will be introduced as a pop entry or if the disco-tastic "I Feel It Coming" will be registered as a Best Dance Recording applicant. Either way, although he's not on the charts at the moment, The Weeknd will be flush with nominations this year, perhaps even with a win or two to go with the two gongs he's already received from the Recording Academy.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Best Rap Performance, Best Rap Album

Give credit where it's due. Despite Big Sean's latest penthouse-peaking rap album having guest spots from Eminem, Migos, and The-Dream, all of the singles he released from it had no assists whatsoever, meaning that when "Bounce Back" became his highest-charting song to date, Sean can take credit for doing it all himself. Expect the Recording Academy to take notice.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Best Alternative Album

Finally, James Murphy is back! His life long dream of topping the album charts has been realized! And... oh, this is the album he gave us? Uncut just named this their Album of the Year, but most fans were left thinking this was half of a good album. Watch as that doesn't stop this from getting a Best Alternative Album nomination regardless.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Best Country Album

Shania Twain topped the charts with her fifth studio album, "Now," but it quickly fell out of the charts, the victim of these album/tour package bundles which inflate an artists' first-week sales abut leads to a total collapse the second week out. Why the collapse? No radio support. As Stephen Thomas Erlewine noted in his review for AllMusic, "'Now" feels fussy, as if every element was triple-guessed because the pressure to have a triumphant comeback was too great." Thus, Twain cruised to penthouse of the Billboard 200 on the strength of her rep alone, and it's for that reason we're expecting her to land a Best Country Album and nothing else.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Best Country Song, Best Country Solo Performance

Jason Aldean was shocked and stunned as any of us were by the tragic 2017 Las Vegas mass shooting, and for his part, Aldean was respectful and a voice of reason following that horrific event, releasing measured statements and performing "I Won't Back Down" by Tom Petty on SNL. We're still processing that event to this day, and it overshadows what was otherwise a respectable year for Aldean. The minor-key rock of "They Don't Know" may seem like a gimme, but the understated classicist-leaning "Any Ol' Barstool" is our likely vote for some key nominations in the country side of things this year.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: None.

Excuse me? Really? Are you really insinuating that Blake Shelton, the Sexiest Man Alive™ isn't going to get a Grammy Award nomination this year? Well, as it turns out, yes, because even after representing the genre on "The Voice" week after week and even lending his own voice to "The Angry Birds Movie," Shelton ended up in the same category as Kenny Chesney and Jason Aldean at the 2017 CMA Awards: none whatsoever. Maybe some view him as too Hollywood to be a true country artist these days, but even the songs he put out during this year played the line pretty rigidly. He could well snag something or another, but all odds are against it.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Best Alternative Album

In a year replete with long-overdue comebacks, Gorillaz return to the stage with "Humanz" is unquestionably one of the most surprising. It may not have been a critical darling and the group kept releasing non-album cuts after the set came out, but no matter: with one win off of nine previous nominations, it's fair to say that these monkeys will be out to play on the Grammy stage for at least a nod.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Best Dance Recording

Justin Bieber has got it pretty nice, no longer feeling the need to release an album given that virtually song he guests on turns into a smash, netting two No. 1's this past year alone, with "Despacito" and his DJ Khaled feature "I'm the One" leading the way. It may not have topped the charts, but the easy, relatable nature of his appearance on this catchy DJ Snake jam should be a shoe-in for Best Dance Recording... assuming that's the category they've submitted it under.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Best Rock Album

No matter how you cut it, Linkin Park's "One More Light" remains their worst reviewed album, topping the charts even with tepid fan response. However, the absolutely tragic passing of Chester Bennington this year has forced some to reevaluate the album in a new light, and warranted or no, this is a very easy album to give a Best Rock Album nomination to.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Best Alternative Album, Producer of the Year (Non-Classical)

It's Jack's world: we're just all living in it. While Lorde topped the charts and received some of her best reviews to date, she also happened to be one part of the rich tapestry that is former fun. member Jack Antonoff's increasing prominence as the go-to pop producer. Lorde? Taylor Swift? St. Vincent? He's got it all down pat. He already has three Grammys to his credit, but his nomination for Producer of the Year is a lock. Him winning it? Even more likely.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Best Rap Song, Best Rap Album, Best Music Video

Even those that loved Jay-Z's thirteenth studio album did so with reservations, as some of the lyrics on here are problematic, to put it lightly. However, his legacy is undeniable, and a Best Rap Album nomination is close to assured. What's really exciting, however, are any of the candidates that could be nodded for Best Music Video, as Jay-Z's game in this was unparalleled. From the Mark Romanek-helmed clip for "The Story of O.J.", playing up some racist Disney stereotypes to emotional effect, to the Alan Yang-helmed "Moonlight," in which Jerrod Carmichael, Issa Rae, Tessa Thompson, and others recreate a "Friends" episode word-for-word while questioning a black actor's place in a white entertainment industry – there's a lot of exemplary choices to go around.

EXPECTED NOMINATIONS: Best Pop Solo Performance, Best Pop Vocal Album

While there's an outside chance Gaga could land an Album of the Year nod (she's managed three before), the critical reception she received for her almost-country turn was pretty middle-of-the-road. Lead single "Perfect Illusion" tried way too hard, but her lighters-up ballad "A Million Reasons" – which hit the Top 5 after she performed it during the Super Bowl halftime show – sounds like it was mined from a vein of pop classicism that makes it feel both new and like it's been around for decades at the same time. If anything, she'll net a few pop nominations, easy.