Agent: Why Juan Soto, Padres extension talks fizzled last summer

2023 ended up being Juan Soto’s final year in San Diego, as the Padres swapped the star outfielder to the Yankees in a blockbuster deal last December.  Given the Padres’ inconsistent play during their disappointing 82-80 season, there was plenty of trade buzz surrounding Soto during the year, and a trade began to look like more of a reality once reports filtered out after the season that San Diego was looking to reduce payroll.

However, some attempts were made to keep Soto in SoCal via a long-term extension.  Agent Scott Boras told Jon Heyman of the New York Post that former Padres owner Peter Seidler had started to explore a multi-year deal last summer.  

“Peter called about wanting to pursue [Soto], and there were discussions about wanting to keep him.  And unfortunately, it did not work out because of [Seidler’s] health,” Boras said.

Seidler passed away in November at age 63, leaving behind a huge legacy during his three-plus years as the Padres’ majority shareholder.  Eager to bring San Diego its first World Series championship, Seidler turned the Padres into one of baseball’s biggest spenders.  Players like Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, and Jake Cronenworth were all signed to pricey extensions, while Xander Bogaerts was signed to an 11-year, $280MM free agent contract.

Extending Soto would’ve required the biggest expenditure of them all, considering Soto’s youth and contractual situation.  The three-time All-Star is set to hit free agency this upcoming winter (just after his 26th birthday), and has already posted numbers during his seven MLB seasons that indicate a future spot in Cooperstown.  Soto already turned down a 15-year, $440M extension offer from the Nationals in 2022 before Washington traded him to San Diego, and a big 2024 campaign in the Bronx will surely move his asking price even further into the stratosphere.  Boras is sure to seek far beyond the deferral-influenced $460M present value of Shohei Ohtani’s contract, and seek a new record guarantee in Soto’s next contract.

Ohtani’s deal with the Dodgers wasn’t yet a reality when Seidler and Soto’s camp talked last summer, though it wouldn’t have been surprising if a mega-deal had been reached.  As Heyman puts it, “Seidler did everything to win without regard to payroll or tax,” and “some connected to the team say they believe a Soto deal in San Diego would have gotten done had Seidler lived.”  There is also the interesting detail that the early discussions might’ve been limited to Seidler himself, as Heyman writes that “the talks were kept quiet at the time (even to folks around the team).”

Negotiating directly with owners has been a common move for Boras over the years in finding big contracts for his clients, and the agent has explained the tactic by simply noting that since the owners are the ones ultimately signing off on the huge deals, why not talk directly to the person signing the checks?  Unsurprisingly, front-office executives and even rival owners haven’t always been impressed with this strategy, as it can be seen as an agent bypassing the usual methods of negotiating with a GM or president of baseball operations (who might have qualms about signing a Boras client for various reasons).  

It isn’t known if Padres president of baseball ops A.J. Preller knew about Seidler’s talks with Boras, or even if Preller would’ve had any objections — Preller is a famously aggressive exec in his own right, and surely would’ve welcomed having Soto remain a Padre for years to come.

Extending Soto would’ve added yet another big contract to the Padres’ books, and complicated the plans to reduce payroll that were reportedly in the works well before Seidler’s passing.  The Padres ended up cutting payroll rather drastically in going from $254.5M in 2023 to around $167.2M at the start of the 2024 season (all figures via RosterResource), plus San Diego has now gotten under the luxury tax threshold after surpassing the tax line in each of the previous three years.