Blue Jays Offseason May Dictate Kikuchi’s Path

The Blue Jays will have to decide what to do with Kikuchi in 2023. It just might depend on everything else they do.

The Toronto Blue Jays will have a decision to make with regard to Yusei Kikuchi. He still has two more seasons left on his deal at $10M per. A year ago, when they signed him, his deal seemed a necessary cost for a 5th starter. Now, after watching him struggle, it is not clear that he is a starting option, at least not an obvious one. Could his struggles relegate him to the bullpen? Or, could offseason attempts to land pitching necessitate him starting?

We knew that the Blue Jays were taking some sort of risk signing the somewhat enigmatic starter. He was an All Star in 2021, but suffered through a 5.98 ERA in the second half of the season. Still, throwing upper 90’s from the left side of the plate was something Toronto was intrigued by. They needed a 5th starter, a position where being solid is more important than being a star and they may have thought that working with Pete Walker would help the then 30 yr old.

Standard Pitching

Year	Age	Tm	W	L	ERA	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	FIP	WHIP
2019	28	SEA	6	11	5.46	32	0	161.2	195	98	36	50	116	5.71	1.515
2020	29	SEA	2	4	5.17	9	0	47.0	41	27	3	20	47	3.30	1.298
2021	30	SEA	7	9	4.41	29	0	157.0	145	77	27	62	163	4.61	1.318
2022	31	TOR	6	7	5.19	32	1	100.2	93	58	23	58	124	5.62	1.500
4 Yr	4 Yr	4 Yr	21	31	5.02	102	1	466.1	474	260	89	190	450	5.08	1.424
162	162	162	7	11	5.02	36	0	165	168	92	32	67	159	5.08	1.424
SEA	SEA	SEA	15	24	4.97	70	0	365.2	381	202	66	132	326	4.93	1.403
TOR	TOR	TOR	6	7	5.19	32	1	100.2	93	58	23	58	124	5.62	1.500

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/30/2022.

Given credit for turning Robbie Ray around, Pete Walker had his work cut out for him. This time around with Kikuchi it didn’t amount to the same kind of rebound. Instead, it ended up limiting his role. By the end of the season, he saw himself as the most expensive piece in the bullpen. Now, heading into the offseason, Toronto faces a tough decision regarding how Kikuchi fits into this roster. Do they keep him in the bullpen? Do they keep working with him and give him another shot at the rotation in 2023? The answer may lie in the wake of whatever moves they make this winter.

Playing into this decision is the potential departure of Ross Stripling. He will be a free agent and has earned the right to head to the open market for the first time and get the best payday for him and his family. It is entirely possible he does not return. Obviously, the Blue Jays would like him back, but there are other teams who will be competing for his services. So, the reality is that the Blue Jays are looking at a three-man rotation in Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios, arguably two aces and a question mark. It’s not a comfortable position to be in to  make a serious run at a World Series.

So, once again, GM, Ross Atkins, will be tasked with obtaining pitching. This time, though, he will be doing so with fewer resources at his disposal. It is not clear how much higher payroll could be allowed to go since their projected to eclipse the $200M mark and be within reach of that $232M Luxury Tax. Simply throwing money at the problem is not an option this time around. That means that the trade route will be explored. That could play out any number of ways, including trading money in the form of an outfielder.

The Blue Jays’ front office has some interesting decisions ahead of them this winter. The problems are pretty straightforward, but the solutions are anything but. The same can be said for the immediate future of Yusei Kikuchi. Obviously, the club is working with more information than we are, but the decision of how he is best utilized doesn’t seem to be an easy one.

One might argue that Kikuchi could be included in a trade in order to shed some money, but the fact that we’re having this conversation means his trade value is likely non-existent. In fact, it’s possible that Toronto may have to pay more to convince another team to take him on. As of right now, they almost have to consider him a rotation option and should be pouring over video, stats, etc in order to figure out how to “fix” him. If those efforts lead to the determination that he is not a viable starter, then he can be moved to the bullpen. But, that decision is not likely to be a quick one. They need starting pitching and right now don’t have better options.

That could all change over the next few months. And, if you’re a fan of the Blue Jays, craving that parade, you’re probably crossing your fingers and toes for serious starting pitching options so that Toronto isn’t forced to rely on Kikuchi to turn things around. There’s no guarantee he will. In 2022, he stopped being a reliable starting pitcher for a playoff team. That means that the team will need to address their needs and then figure out where Kikuchi fits in. Otherwise, it could be a long, and disappointing, 2023 season.