Craig Counsell looking to reset the market for managerial salaries

With Craig Counsell no longer under contract as manager of the Brewers and strong interest from other clubs, there has been much speculation about what factors he will be taking into account in deciding where to go for 2024. Per a report from Curt Hogg and Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, he is looking to reset the market for managers in terms of salary. Though the interest from the Mets will likely lead to a hefty offer, it seems he will give the Brewers a chance to match that figure.

Counsell is in high demand due to his successful track record as a skipper. He took over as the bench boss for the Brewers when they were at a weak point and saw the results gradually improve in his first few seasons, winning 61, 73 and 86 games in his first three campaigns from 2015 to 2017. Since then, the club went on to qualify for the postseason in five of the past six years, despite the club generally having payrolls on the lower end of the league.

That success had garnered him interviews with the Mets and Guardians for their managerial vacancies. The Astros also have interest but it seems they are planning to take their time in their hiring process, which may prevent them from having a shot with Counsell. The fit with the Mets has been speculated upon since David Stearns left the Brewers to become president of baseball operations with the Mets. Given that Stearns and Counsell spent so much time working together, it’s been assumed by many that Stearns would poach Counsell and bring him to Queens.

Despite that outside interest, there would be logic to Counsell preferring to stay in Milwaukee, given his longstanding ties to the region. He grew up in Wisconsin and his father worked for the Brewers. Craig then spent part of his playing career with the club before his managerial career began.

Per the report from Hogg and Rosiak, Counsell is motivated by pushing the market forward in terms of manager salaries, particularly in smaller markets. Although Joe Torre once secured a salary of $8M when managing the Yankees in the past, the market has apparently softened since then. It has been reported that Terry Francona had the highest salary of any manager in the league in 2023. Previous reports stated his contract with the Guardians had an average annual value of $4.5M but Hogg and Rosiak relay that it was an even $5M in 2023.

Counsell himself wasn’t too far off, getting $3.5M from the Brewers in 2023, but he is now looking to “at least double” that figure next year, per Hogg and Rosiak. It wouldn’t be a shock if the Mets stepped up with the offer of $7M that Counsell appears to be seeking. Owner Steve Cohen has quickly earned a spendthrift reputation since buying the Mets, seemingly having little hesitation about plonking down money when he wants something.

But that may not be enough in this case. Per the report, Counsell will return to Milwaukee with whatever offer he has in hand and give the Brewers a chance to match it. If they are willing to do so, he will “almost certainly” stay in Milwaukee, but he doesn’t appear willing to take a hometown discount. The Brewers reportedly offered him a raise at the end of the season but it seems it wasn’t enough to prevent him from sniffing around and seeing what else is available to him.

Whether the Brewers will match the Mets is a fair question to ask. The club generally walks a fine line when it comes to payroll, occasionally having to make tough roster decisions based on money rather than targeting optimal on-field alignments. The most infamous example of this was the trade of Josh Hader, who was flipped to San Diego as his salary increased, with the club hoping the less-expensive Taylor Rogers could pick up the slack while other cheaper players bolstered other parts of the roster.

It has been speculated that another such trade could be coming this winter, with Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Willy Adames each about to enter their respective final arbitration seasons with projected eight-figure salaries. Woodruff’s injury may complicate that matter, but the point remains that it may be tough for a penny-pinching club to have the most expensive manager in the league.

Resolution may not take much longer, as a decision is “likely” by the end of the general manager meetings, which run from November 7 to 9.