FanGraphs projects Jarred Kelenic to outproduce Eddie Rosario in left field

The only position player that the Atlanta Braves targeted this offseason, per president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos, is new left fielder Jarred Kelenic. The Braves acquired the outfielder last week from the Seattle Mariners in a five player trade that saw them take on the bad contracts of both Marco Gonzales and Evan White, now both traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates and Los Angeles Angels, respectively. 

Kelenic's technically in a position battle with infielder Vaughn Grissom, who's in winter ball in Puerto Rico right now converting over to outfield after a career spent playing exclusively infield, but Kelenic's the favorite to be the Opening Day starter given his much greater track record of competently playing in the grass and manager Brian Snitker's preference for experience. 

And Steamer, the proprietary projection system of Fangraphs, thinks that not only will Kelenic win the job, he'll out perform last year's left field starter Eddie Rosario. 

Per the updated Steamer projections, Kelenic is projected for 110 games in left field as the larger side of a platoon with Vaughn Grissom, with a slash line of .245/.322/.434. For counting stats, he's projected to hit 16 homers and steal 11 bases, with a total wRC+ of 101 (with 100 being MLB average).

For comparison, Eddie Rosario had a better batting average last season (.255) and home run total (21), but a lower on-base percentage (.305) and stolen base total (3/7). He finished with a 100 wRC+ for 2023 and is predicted for a 95 in 2024.   

(Kelenic should also be more valuable defensively, as he's capable of playing right and center field, as well. Rosario is almost exclusively a left fielder at this point in his career, Gold Glove nomination notwithstanding.)

And honestly, an "average" wRC+ is good enough in this Braves lineup. Atlanta returns the other eight lineup regulars from an offense that tied the MLB record for homers in a season and easily outpaced the rest of baseball in runs scored. 

Kelenic's notorious for feeling the "pressure" of his draft stock and importance to his team - he was the #6 overall pick of the New York Mets in the 2018 MLB Draft and was the centerpiece of their trade for 2B Robinson Canó. He's admitted to feeling the obligation to not only perform, but carry Seattle's offense at times, leading him to kick a cooler in frustration after a strikeout last season and breaking his foot.