Ketel Marte Looks to Maintain High Production in 2024

A brief look at Marte's 2024 projection looks similar to the solid season he had in 2023, with a slight decrease in power. His batting average and on-base percentage are both within five points, but His slugging percentage and ISO (isolated power) rate both dip more than 10 points, although they remain well above league average. Despite the drop in power, his OPS is still projected to be solidly above .800. 

Where the projections are likely looking to take away some power are in the home run department. Both systems actually predict an increase in exra-base hits for Marte, ZiPS giving him 39 to last year's 35, while Steamer raises him to 42. Despite this predicted increase in extra-base hits, both systems expect a drop in the home run category. ZiPS projects his home run production to drop from 25 to 19, while Steamer predicts a decrease to 21. 

Both systems expect a very slight increase in strikeout percentage, and slight dip in walks.

However, his aWAR (average of fWAR and bWAR) is projected nearly a full win lower, which could stem from the fact that Marte is projected to have an average of 37 fewer plate appearances (nearly 70 fewer according to ZiPS), and that he slightly outperformed his defensive expectations in 2023, despite being just an average defender. His 3.6 aWAR is still that of a very good player, but lower than the stellar 4.5 of 2023.

Why Marte might outperform his projection

As a player, nothing suggests that any part of his excellent 2023 season was a fluke. His underlying metrics have been solid for the most part throughout his entire career. If anything, his .240/.321/.407/.728 slash in 2022 is the most anomalous season of his career. He's shown the ability to hit well above .300 and slug into the .500s in multiple instances.

In 2023, he hit close to or over .300 in four of six full regular-season months. And even when slumping, he still got on base at a decent rate without seeing a large increase in his strikeout numbers.

The switch-hitter has been able to put the bat on the ball consistently through his entire career. There's little danger of him becoming a whiff or strikeout machine, and according to Savant, he was near or above average in every offensive percentile category except sweet-spot, showing signs of being not only a slugger, but a reliable contact hitter with situational poise.

When healthy, Marte has mostly been known to rack up extra-base hits, spreading the ball around the yard from both sides of the plate. After jump-starting himself again in 2023, he could be in store for an even bigger breakout in 2024, now that he looks more comfortable in his role. 

With a slight possibility that the D-backs might throw him some DH opportunities--barring a big DH acquisition--we might see him outperform his aWAR by getting some time off his defensive role and focusing on his offensive production as well as keeping him from spending too much time on the injured list and upping his plate appearances.

It's worth noting that Marte is also more productive facing left-handed pitching, as he hit .313 against them as a righty batter in 2023, while hitting only .259 against right-handers as a lefty bat. If the D-backs pick up a big left-handed bat, Marte's efficiency at the plate could potentially increase as a result of facing fewer right-handed pitchers, although it's still likely he will retain a mostly everyday role.

Why Marte might underperform his projection

Marte has an eerie ability to alternate hot and cold years through his career. After a cold 2022, he heated up considerably in 2023, which could see him due for another dip. While not a hard factor to consider, there is some reasoning behind it that could justify Marte underperforming.

Now, much of this "trend" is due to his tendency to spend time on the injured list, which is unfortunately another aspect that could factor into a less-than-stellar 2024. Marte played the second-most games of his career in 2023 (150), with minimal injury issue. While that is something to be encouraged by, the veteran infielder is now north of 30 years old, entering his 10th major league season. To expect him to be fully healthy for another 150 or more games is likely wishful thinking, and we could see his plate appearances diminish heavily, or his game decrease as a result of injury.

It will also be hard for him to maintain such a strong production of home runs and extra-base hits. While his ability to make contact remains solid, he ranks significantly lower in barrel rate, hard-hit % and sweet-spot %, and his speed has decreased greatly with age. It could be difficult to maintain his near-.500 slugging, and he's only ever hit more than 14 home runs one other time in a season (32 in 2019).

Defensively, we could see a return to his below-average form of the previous few years, which could also factor in to a lower aWAR.

Summary

It's hard to justify projecting Marte to have a much better season than his excellent 2023, although there is a potential for it. These projections generally expect a small regression, but due to Marte's longevity and relative consistency of production, coupled with his shown ability to go nuclear on occasion, this is a solid projection for another very good season from the veteran. If he remains healthy for another full season, he could very well produce at an even higher level.