MLB best bets: 4 expert picks for Sunday 4/14

Brewers vs. Orioles

Sunday, April 14, 1:35 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Orioles F5 -1.5 (+138, FanDuel)

By Andy Fenelon

After the Orioles dropped the first two games against Milwaukee, Corbin Burnes is left trying to salvage the series finale on Sunday. 

He’s opposed by Colin Rea, a classic outs-getter who doesn’t strike out many batters and walks even fewer. In two starts this season, Rea is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over 11 innings. 

Burnes has allowed just 12 hits and four runs with 20 strikeouts and just two walks over 18 2/3 innings this season – his first in Baltimore after being traded by Milwaukee in the offseason. 

While he ranks in the 90th percentile in several advanced metrics, Burnes has been susceptible to hard contact in his first three starts with the Orioles. 

Against him, hitters have a higher barrel rate (6.3%), exit velocity (90.3), hard-hit rate (39.6) and launch angle (12.7) than at any point since he won his Cy Young in 2021.

That should be concerning since Milwaukee leads the majors in home runs per game (1.6) after hitting a combined five Friday and Saturday and 10 in their last six games. They also own MLB’s fourth-highest barrel rate (9.1%).

But there's a reason Baltimore traded for Burnes. He's a slump-buster who keeps teams from getting on extended losing streaks.

Mix in some potential bad blood against his old team (or at least team management after a bitter arbitration hearing a little over a year ago), and we have the makings for another dominant performance in a revenge spot.

With Rea due for some regression, look for Burnes to hold down this hot Brewers lineup and for Baltimore to grab an early lead.

Pick: Orioles F5 -1.5 (+138)

Twins vs. Tigers

Sunday, April 14, 1:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Twins ML (-104, FanDuel)

By Anthony Dabbundo

Bailey Ober ran into an opening start annihilation against Kansas City in which the Twins righty allowed eight runs, three homers and couldn't complete two full innings. His second start against the Dodgers was a much more respectable five=inning, one-run outing with seven strikeouts and two walks. Ober has plus command, plus extension and his stuff plays up as a result of those two factors. Ober's early-season underlying metrics are a bit wonky through two starts. Hitters have been incredibly passive against him, taking a lot of called strikes and swinging and missing way less.

Ober's stuff profile looks the same as last year and I'm still a believer in his command in the future. He had the poor outing on opening day but I'm willing to chalk that up to an early season dud. The homers will remain a problem given how much he fills up the zone, but Ober's plus command suggests he'll have more outings like the Dodgers one than the Royals one. The Tigers love to be patient early in counts as well, so Ober should pitch from ahead most of this game.

Flaherty has tweaked his pitch mix to try to hide his declining fastball this season. Through two starts, the underlying statistics look quite impressive. He has a career high CSW%, career best swinging strike rate and a 12:1 K:BB ratio through two starts. If you just take those stats at face value, you might think Flaherty is a bet-on pitcher this season going forward. The problem is that hitters will be able to quickly catch onto this slider-heavy approach, and Flaherty without his fastball is a seriously diminished pitcher that's been largely ineffective for multiple seasons now.

Flaherty has a 78 Stuff+ fastball and not a single one of his pitches grades out as above average. It's hard to see him maintain his solid xStats through starts, especially when you consider opponent. His first two starts came against the White Sox and Athletics, two of the worst lineups in all of baseball. Now facing a competent Twins group, Flaherty is clearly overvalued as a pick'em at home against Bailey Ober for me.

Pick: Twins ML (-104)

Cubs vs. Mariners

Sunday, April 14, 4:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Cubs ML (+124, DraftKings)

By Kenny Ducey

Talk to any Mariners fan about Luis Castillo and you’ll be met with delusion in regards to his poor start. They’ll tell you “he’s just not locating” or “it’s a small sample size," but there’s a lot to be concerned about considering the numbers.

Yes, I am aware that Castillo’s 3.56 xERA does not quite match his 6.89 real-life ERA, and surely that and the flamethrower’s track record is the reason why Seattle still comes in as a rather sizable favorite here. Well, his walk rate is down all the way to 5.3%, which is the likely cause of that, though his expected slugging has dropped back down to .387 after finishing higher than .400 a season ago.

Great! Batters aren’t bothering to wait around for Castillo’s offerings because they’re utterly hittable right now. He’s lost 1 mph off his fastball to this point in the season, and while the ball hasn’t exactly been struck dangerously, this is actually a huge issue. Castillo is rolling up more ground balls this season and doing so with a .268 Expected Batting Average overall, and that’s come at the expense of a three-point dip in strikeout rate.

Castillo has long thrived off strikeouts, pitching around scattered barreled balls. Furthermore, playing in Seattle, you actually do want to pitch to more fly balls given it’s nearly impossible to hit the ball out with the roof open.

The Cubs have done two things well: They have hit the ball hard (doing plenty of it on the ground) and they also have limited strikeouts. This start from Castillo is very problematic in my eyes with his incredibly important fastball dropping off in quality and his slider not moving as much.

On the other hand, you have a pitcher in Javier Assad that has given up plenty of balls in the air and posted some excellent strikeout numbers to this point going against a team that will hit fly balls into the rough Seattle air and one that leads the way in strikeout rate. The choice is clear to me.

Pick: Cubs ML (+124)

Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks

Sunday, April 14, 4:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Over 8.5 (-115, Caesars)

By Collin Whitchurch

This line has been floating around the 8.5 to 9 range since it opened Saturday afternoon, and 9 is the high-end of the range I'm willing to bet. Be sure to shop around for the best odds if you're placing this Sunday morning or afternoon.

Miles Mikolas' results through three starts have been fine. He basically got shelled by the Dodgers on Opening Day and followed it up with a couple of quality starts, dancing around trouble against both the Padres and Phillies.

I think Mikolas is a ticking time bomb, combining below-average stuff with an increased walk rate, a lot of fly balls and a lot of hard-hit balls. He's avoided barrels through his first three starts, but we should see some regression there as hitters square him up when he hits the strike zone.

Concerns about Zac Gallen's potential decline may be a bit overblown, but I do think it's fair to say he's not going to be in the Cy Young discussion, as he was the last two seasons. It's worth noting that two of his first three starts were against the abysmal Rockies offense, and while he did put together his best start in the bandbox of Coors Field, there's reason to believe he won't be as effective facing more prolific offenses.

Nobody is confusing the Cardinals for the '27 Yankees, but even with expected declining performances from aging veterans like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, this unit is still better than the 88 wRC+ they've put together entering Saturday night's game. With Gallen's velocity still down about 1 mph from last year, they should have some success, while the D'backs — who have been much improved from last year's unit that reached the World Series — have plenty of firepower against Mikolas.

Both bullpens are about middle-of-the-pack, while Arizona's has been enduring a particularly rough stretch. If either or both starters leave the game earlier than expected, I wouldn't expect a shutdown day from either unit, particularly on a getaway day.

Pick: Over 8.5 (-115)