MLB best bets, strikeout props for Friday 8/11: Looking for a gem from Verlander

The first weekend of preseason NFL games is nearly upon us, but before we turn the page to football season, we're heading back to the diamond for some strikeout props. Let's finish the week strong with my three favorite K props for Friday's MLB slate. 

Aaron Civale under 4.5 Ks (+124 FanDuel)

Aaron Civale hasn't been an effective swing-and-miss pitcher this year. The right-hander is striking out a career-low 6.9 batters per nine innings in 2023, and he's gone over 4.5 Ks just once in his last five starts. Now he has to go up against a Cleveland Guardians lineup that's recorded the fewest strikeouts per game (6.9) and the lowest strikeout rate against righties (20.6 percent) in MLB this season. Take the under.

Justin Verlander over 6.5 Ks (-115 DraftKings)

Justin Verlander isn't the same strikeout artist he once was. His 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings is his lowest mark since the 2014 season, and he's cleared 6.5 Ks just three times in his 17 starts this year. So, why in the world are we taking the over here?

Well, the Los Angeles Angels have been lost at the plate recently. Over the last 15 days, the Angels have a .230 batting average and 10.8 strikeouts per game, which is the worst mark in the league in that span. This will be Verlander's first home start with the Houston Astros this season, and I think it has all the makings of a vintage gem from the future Hall of Famer.

Luis Castillo under 7.5 Ks (-140 DK)

It's a scary time to fade Luis Castillo. The Seattle Mariners starter has racked up 33 strikeouts over his last four starts, but 20 of them came in two starts against the Minnesota Twins, the worst team in MLB this season in terms of Ks. If you take out those two performances, Castillo has gone under 7.5 Ks in eight straight starts. The Baltimore Orioles have struck out just 7.4 times per game over the last week, which is the third-best mark in the league in that span. This line is a tick too high.