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Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27). Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

MLB betting: An early look at the AL MVP

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 2/7/24

It is not often that an MVP switches leagues (without changing their home address), but that is what we got when slugger/ace Shohei Ohtani went from the Angels to the Dodgers. Ohtani has won the award in two of the last past three years in the American League and might have even been the favorite again this season, even without pitching this season.

Without him to contend with, there is actually a little bit of excitement for the AL MVP Award, made that much more interesting because the New York Yankees have the top two candidates, at least in terms of odds right now (Outfielders Aaron Judge and Juan Soto). That might make you hate them even more but it could also be a fascinating race (you could pick them both).

When I look at the AL MVP odds table I see a of interesting prospects. Here are the players and odds that most caught my eye.

AL MVP Portfolio

Yordan Alvarez +800, DH/OF Houston Astros

Put simply, he is one of the elite sluggers in the game. He has hit 30+ homers in three straight seasons and being with Houston puts him into a favorable spot because they will definitely contend. Not to be overlooked is that he might be in his physical prime as he gets his age 27 season. He only finished 13th in the AL MVP race last season but also played just 114 games. If he can play 150 games the numbers should be there. I put him on par with Aaron Judge and Juan Soto but you get a much better payoff.

Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Kansas City Royals, +2200 (Best Bet)

The Royals just made a big investment (understatement) in the phenom, who improved across the board in his second year last year. They have also made investments in the team around him and that is why I like this pick a lot. If Witt puts up the same numbers he did a year ago (likely) and the team improves to being playoff worthy I will be shocked if he is not in the top five. A 40/40 season is within reason and we do not get many of those. With Ohtani out of the picture, winning might matter more for this award this season.

Vlad Guerrero Jr, 1B/DH, Toronto Blue Jays +2800

The Jays have not made any significant splashes in free agency, or in going long-term with Vlad or teammate Bo Bichette. The working theory is that they want to see more from their star hitter, a second act to 2021 when he was second to Ohtani in the MVP race. I get it, his numbers are far from bad but trending in the wrong direction. However, he rarely misses a game and will be in the thick of a playoff race once again. If the Jays finish at the top of the division, that could get him the award. Plus I think he might be finally motivated by that lack of extension.

The Long Shot

Alex Verdugo, OF, New York Yankees +18000

Some projections have DJ LeMahieu leading off for the Yankees, but I am seeing a chance that it is the lefty-swinging Verdugo instead and that hitting in front of Soto and Judge in some order sets him up to score a ton of runs and maybe sneak into the discussion (look at that payoff). He is the right age to pop, and with those hitters behind him, he could score 130 runs easily (to lead the league). That will get some attention for sure.

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