Texas Rangers pitcher Jordan Montgomery. Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

MLB Playoff picks: Best bets for Rangers vs. Astros ALCS Game 5

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated 10/20/23

The Texas Rangers were in firm control of the ALCS after two straight road victories to start the series, but all the momentum has shifted since then. On Thursday night, the Houston Astros rolled to a 10-3 win in Game 4 to knot the ALCS at 2-2.

Texas has one more chance to salvage some home-field advantage in Game 5 (Friday at 5:07 p.m. ET), but can Jordan Montgomery outduel Justin Verlander in Arlington? Let's get to the picks.

Under 9 (-110 FanDuel)

This is a scary bet to place after watching the Astros and Rangers combined for 26 runs in Games 3 and 4, but we're trusting the starting pitchers here.

Montgomery got smacked around by the Baltimore Orioles in the ALDS, but he didn't give up a single run in his other two playoff starts this year. The left-hander went 6.1 shutout innings with six strikeouts against the Astros in Game 1, and we're expecting a similar performance on his home field.

Verlander was also solid in Game 1, as he gave up just two earned runs in 6.2 innings of work. The first matchup between these two pitchers ended with a 2-0 Tex victory, so let's hope for the same script in Game 5.

Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 total bases (+110 DraftKings)

Alvarez has been simply unstoppable in the postseason. The Astros slugger is batting .419 with six home runs and 13 RBIs, and he has multiple hits in five of his eight playoff starts this October.

Surprisingly, Alvarez has been better against lefties than he has against righties. In 13 at-bats against lefties this postseason, he's batting .538 with two home runs. With a left-hander in Montgomery on the mound for the Rangers, Alvarez could cash this ticket in his first at-bat of the game.

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