MLB stretch run means it's parlay time

Baseball season is headed for the stretch run, which means we're starting to find out which teams are for real, and which teams aren't.

You know what that means?

Betting the moneyline and runline should be getting a little bit easier. Now that doesn't mean you should go crazy and start spending more than ever before. But if you're someone who likes parlays but doesn't bet them because of the risk, now is the time to overcome that fear and bet a parlay.

When it comes to parlays, you always want two things: value and an ongoing trend. Monday's parlay checks those boxes. That's why we're taking the New York Mets +2.5 on the runline and the Philadelphia Phillies on the moneyline. The best part is you're getting better than even odds (+115 via DK).

Let's start with the Mets at +2.5 on the road against the Braves. It's a little surprising to see the Mets as moneyline underdogs against the Braves, but hey, don't complain. Take advantage instead. New York is 17-3 in its last 20 games and 8-4 against the Braves. It's far from ideal that each loss to Atlanta has been by three or more runs, but Mets starter Carlos Carrasco may be pitching the best baseball of his career right now. 

Carrasco is 13-4 with a 3.76 ERA in 22 games this season, 5-0 with a 1.69 ERA over his last seven starts and 2-0 with a 1.92 ERA in two starts against Atlanta this season. Best of all, the Mets are 7-0 in Carrasco's last seven starts. 

Atlanta is definitely capable of beating New York on Monday, especially with NL Rookie of the Year frontrunner Spencer Strider starting for the Braves. However, with New York +2.5 on the runline and Carrasco rolling, that's just too good to pass up. I know Atlanta has won six straight, but still, expect a close game and maybe even a Mets victory. 

What did we say you should look for when placing a parlay bet? Value and an ongoing trend. Obviously with +111 odds, the value is there. The Mets are playing arguably their best baseball of the season, which is a hot trend. But you know what else is a hot trend? How bad the Cincinnati Reds have been when Mike Minor starts. 

Minor is starting on Monday for Cincinnati, and the Reds are winless in each of his last nine starts. It's not like Minor is getting a bunch of no-decisions or tough-luck losses. Minor has just been bad. The southpaw is 1-9 with a 6.24 ERA in 12 starts this season and has allowed four runs or more in seven of his last 10 starts. Not exactly good.

Also, the Phillies are in the thick of a playoff race; Cincinnati is not. This is even more incentive for Philadelphia to come out and win on Monday. 

Philadelphia is the significantly better team, and they should have very little trouble with Cincinnati. The Phillies may be getting closer to having Bryce Harper back after fracturing his thumb in June. If Philadelphia can make the postseason and get Harper back, look out. The Phillies could sneak up on some teams. 

The Parlay bet: New York Mets +2.5 vs. Atlanta Braves AND Philadelphia Phillies over Cincinnati Reds (+111 Odds via DraftKings)

Bet $100 to win $111

In other news ...

Zalatoris wins FedEx St. Jude Championship — Will Zalatoris won the FedEx St. Jude Championship in a three-hole playoff for his first PGA Tour win on Sunday. Zalatoris opened at 25/1 to win and now stands atop the FedEx Cup standings. 

Burrow returns to practice — Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow returned to practice on Sunday for the first time since undergoing an appendectomy. Burrow is a 12/1 favorite to win NFL MVP and lead the NFL in passing yards. 

Phillies' Harper set to take batting practice — 2021 National League MVP Bryce Harper is scheduled to take batting practice on Monday for the first time since fracturing his thumb back in June. The Philadelphia Phillies are currently the third and final seed in the Wild Card standings and are -400 to make the playoffs via Caesars.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Jared Shlensky