Predicting the odds for the Baseball Hall of Fame class of 2018

Highlights: 762 home runs, seven-time MVP

The sixth time through the voting process will be an interesting one for Bonds, who has seen his approval total rise nearly 20% from the 36.2% he received in his debut year. He's seen significant jumps in support in each of the last two years, and if he stays at his current rate of improvement, he would make it in by 2020. This will not be his year, but the ice around him seems to be thawing rapidly. 

Prediction: Out, but improving

Highlights: 2005 NL Cy Young Award winner, 10 postseason victories

Had his health been more favorable, Carpenter would have likely been able to put together a run that could make this a worthwhile debate. He was great at his best, finishing in the top three of the NL Cy Young voting three times in five years and winning the award in a 21-win 2005 showing. He also had a legendary showing against Roy Halladay in the decisive game of the 2011 NLDS, but he missed over three years due a mixture of injuries and finished with 144 wins. 

Prediction: One and done on ballot

Highlights: 354 wins, seven-time Cy Young Award winner

Much as as been the case with Bonds, Clemens has seen favor toward him improve greatly in recent years. He hit a new high with last year’s 54.1% of the vote, but a crowded ballot could marginalize that growth continuing at the same pace. As things are, Clemens is the only 300-game winner who is not currently enshrined in Cooperstown. 

Prediction: Stays on, slight improvement

Highlights: Two-time World Series champion, 2,769 hits

Damon was very good for a very long time, and he made an impact with every team he spent substantial time with. While he was a major contributor for a pair of World Series winners, hit .300 five times and stole over 400 bases, there was nothing remarkable enough about Damon to garner much attention at this level. 

Prediction: One and done

Highlights: 2004 AL MVP, .318 batting average, 449 home runs

Guerrero made quite an impact in his first year on the ballot, falling just 15 votes short of achieving first-ballot status. The second time around could be tough again, as this year’s class is full of similarly qualified first-year types as he was a year ago. However, in the last 10 years, only Roberto Alomar topped 70% of the vote in his first year of eligilibility and was not elected in. In the next season, he easily cruised in by appearing on 90% of the vote, and at least a 10% improvement should come his way. 

Prediction: Voted in

Highlights: National League all-time saves leader (601), seven-time All-Star

Hoffman missed election a year ago by just five votes, a margin he will easily surpass this year. Hoffman’s entrance will put half of the guaranteed modern-day reliever duo into play, as Mariano Rivera will likely walk into Cooperstown two years from now. His three-year tenure on the ballot has been a good litmus test for what many elite closers could face in years to come, as the position is more widely accepted and adopted into the Hall. 

Prediction: Elected in, second highest vote total

Highlights: 10-time Gold Glove winner, 434 career home runs

One of the most interesting names that will appear for the first time is Jones, who had a particularly interesting career. One of the most talented and exciting players of his era, Jones became a teenage World Series sensation at 19 and made five All-Star Games by the time he was 29 — but his fall-off after age 30 was swift and creates a big canyon in the image of his career. After seeing a contemporary in Jim Edmonds suffer a surprising one-and-done stay on the ballot a few years ago, there could be reasonable concern for a similar outcome for Jones, although his membership on an era-defining team in Atlanta could salvage his stay. I think the latter happens, barely. 

Prediction: Low teens on ballot, but survival

Highlights: 1999 NL MVP, 2008 MLB batting champion (.364)

Jones is a quintessential first-ballot candidate and one of the greatest switch-hitters of all time. He is in the short conversation for greatest third baseman ever, finishing in the top six in batting average, home runs, RBIs, hits, doubles and runs scored at the position. He is the only switch-hitter in MLB history to hit both .300 and 400 home runs in his career. He was the most productive everyday player during Atlanta’s 14 consecutive division title winners, producing 56.5 WAR during the stretch. Chipper has the complete recipe to walk in with a massively impressive percentage of the vote. 

Prediction: First-ballot election, leading vote recipient

Highlights: 2000 NL MVP, five-time All-Star

Kent has never sniffed the level needed for even a serious discussion about reaching induction consideration with his 16.7% total last year representing a personal high. Despite some calls for his accolades to be considered more seriously, Kent seems destined to live out his remaining five years on the ballot as a distant participant who will finish far outside of the fray.

Prediction: Low teens on ballot, but survival

Highlights: Two-time batting champion (1992, 1995), five-time Silver Slugger winner

It is a big year on the ballot for Martinez, who has become one of the fastest risers in recent years on the ballots as further investigation into his career has yielded historically favorable returns. After getting a 15% jump from 2016 to 2017, things look good for Martinez’s sentiment among voters, and he could be next in line for a last-stand jump that Tim Raines and Bert Blyleven experienced most recently. We will see how accepting the role of the designated hitter will be by the voting body. If Martinez can get within 10% of the necessary 75% for induction this year, he would have a great chance of getting over the hump in his 10th and final year in 2019. 

Prediction: Not elected, but an interesting final stand next year

Highlights: 493 home runs, led both AL and NL in home runs in a season (1989, 1992)

What a difference that seven home runs can apparently make. The peak of McGriff’s tenure on the ballot has come and gone, as he has been regularly passed not only by his contemporaries, but those who both preceded and followed him on the ballot. He seems to be destined for re-evaluation on the Today's Game era ballot after two more years on the general electorate come and go. 

Prediction: Stays in same range, not elected

Highlights: 270 wins, seven-time Gold Glove winner

Mussina’s position has rapidly improved each year and should continue to trend up again in his fifth time through the process. He may still have a few years ahead of him, but it would be surprising if it took the full decade wait for Moose to make it in after gaining a 31% improvement since his first year of eligibility in 2014. Remember, with his career record of 270-153 — with the current exception of Roger Clemens — Mussina stands as the only hurler ever with 100 more wins than losses who is not enshrined. It is likely to be a temporary status for him as well. 

Prediction: Another improvement, still not elected

Highlights: 555 home runs, 12-time All-Star

Ramirez seems destined to remain in the "egregious, we don’t feel guilty about leaving you out" zone of Hall voting. Only Bonds and Clemens have been able to somewhat move out of the shadow of the PED-associated shadow of their careers on the ballot, while even the 23.8% that Ramirez received in his debut year on the ballot was somewhat shocking. It would be surprising to see him gain any substantial ground the second time around. 

Prediction: Hovers south of 30% still, not elected

Highlights: Eight-time Gold Glove winner, seven-time All-Star

Rolen is a bit of an anomaly. There are many things that say clear Hall of Famer in on his résumé, as well as several issues that could stand in the way. On one hand, Rolen is one of the greatest infield defenders of all time. He also had nine seasons of 20-plus home runs and seven 90-plus RBI years. He has a World Series title, was Rookie of the Year and made seven All-Star Games. However, injuries limited him to averaging under 140 games a season in his career and thus hurt is counting stats at a position that looks for those from its all-time greats. He could also fall victim to being compared to a contemporary in Jones who will also make his first appearance this year. Things could go really right or shockingly wrong for where Rolen debuts on the ballot. 

Prediction: Gets enough votes to live for reassessment another year

Highlights: Two-time AL Cy Young winner (2004, 2006), Triple Crown winner (2006)

Santana’s career was that of a shooting star. He was arguably the best pitcher in baseball from 2004-2008, but his workload took a toll on him by 2010, when he tore his anterior capsule in his pitching shoulder and only pitched 112 innings after his 31^st birthday. While there is a precedent for pitchers with injury-shortened careers to make the Hall, Santana does not have the feel of a player whose absence changed the course of the game in the same fashion as, say, a Sandy Koufax did in his abbreviated career. 

Prediction: One and done on ballot, not elected

Highlights: Three-time World Series champion, .846 postseason win percentage

Entering his sixth year on the ballot, Schilling could be in much better position than he has been. However, after his much-publicized feud with the media and controversial political statements, he has done some damage to his image at an inopportune time. If the debate can return to simply around his body of work on the mound, Schilling could see a jump back above the 51% peak he reached in 2016. However, Schilling could be the 11^th man on the 10-man ballot moving ahead. 

Prediction: Rise back toward 50%, but still well short of induction

Highlights: 509 home runs, nine-time All-Star

Much like he was throughout his career, Sheffield has become the forgotten man in the mix. Despite his undeniable production and longevity, his image has done him no favors. A penchant for the controversial moment throughout his career, coupled with a reputation for being difficult to deal with and rumors of PED use, have proved to be a cocktail of negative intangibles on his career. Sheffield has a long time to go on the ballot, but the forecast doesn’t look good. 

Prediction: A drop in votes in a crowded year

Highlights: 609 home runs, 1998 NL MVP

Sosa’s image (both literally and figuratively) has declined in recent years, and his standing on the ballots has followed suit. While the process has never been kind to Sosa, he did hit a new personal high in 2017, although it was far from a promising prognosis. In a year when there are many existing candidates seeing improvements in their own standings, along with a large group of worthwhile first-year candidates, Sosa could be in danger of dropping below the 5% minimum threshold soon. 

Prediction: He will linger for another year, south of 10% but slight higher than 5%

Highlights: 612 home runs, six 40-homer seasons

The question is not if Thome is a Hall of Famer; he certainly is that. The bigger question is if he will be a first-ballot selection. Although he was devastatingly consistent throughout his career, he never finished higher than fourth in an MVP race and was only a five-time All-Star selection. On the other hand, there is the chance that he was just chronically underappreciated in his time. Along with Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, Ted Williams and Mel Ott, Thome is one of five players ever with 500 home runs, 1,600 RBIs, 1,700 walks and a .400 on-base percentage, a four-statistic cocktail that screams Hall of Famer by association. He also passes the moral compass test of suspicion that is seemingly all-important in today’s process (ask Mike Piazza or Jeff Bagwell about this). That being said, it feels like Thome may fall a few votes short of walking in on his first time around. 

Prediction: Finishes north of 70% but just south of 75% needed, elected in 2019

Highlights: 11-time Gold Glove winner, 404 stolen bases

Vizquel’s defensive prowess is legendary. He won his first Gold Glove at age 26 and his last as a 39-year-old. No shortstop has ever turned more double plays than Vizquel, and he has the highest fielding percentage in history at the position. His 28.4 defensive WAR is 10th all time and fourth highest all time among shortstops, behind a trio of Hall of Famers in Ozzie Smith, Cal Ripken and Luis Aparicio. Add in that he is among five other Hall of Famers to total 2,500 hits, 400 stolen bases and 600 extra-base hits, and Vizquel is clearly Cooperstown-bound — it just may take a few years. 

Prediction: Not a first-ballot pick, but should break 40%

Highlights: 422 saves, seven-time All-Star

Wagner took a step back in his second year on the ballot and continues to be questionable about how far he can rise throughout the process. However, once Hoffman and Rivera are elected over the next two years, it could clear space for a more specific analysis of Wagner, who in many regards was superior to Hoffman outside of save totals. It remains to be seen how much the writers will warm to the idea of modern closer induction. 

Prediction: Not elected, but will remain in same neighborhood

Highlights: 1997 NL MVP, three-time batting champion (1998, 1999, 2001)

The underestimation of Walker’s abilities and accomplishments along with the overemphasis of the impact that Coors Field had on his numbers continue to kill Walker’s chances. He seems destined to move on to the Today's Game ballot, where a further re-evaluation of his impact could do him some favors that the contemporary ballot has not facilitated. 

Prediction: Walker rides out his final two years on the ballot in the same range, but well short of election