Projecting Slade Cecconi's Opportunities for 2024

As a starting pitcher prospect with clear strengths and weaknesses, it can be difficult to make an accurate projection as there are many potential outcomes in play. The projection is for Cecconi to make 10 starts and 20 relief appearances in 2024, totaling 81 innings on the season. This implies not only will the young right-hander be shuttled between Triple-A and the majors, but also varying roles on the pitching staff. That's not a particularly uncommon practice for young pitchers, as it's a means to see if they can handle opposing hitters before deciding a long term role. 

From a performance standpoint, Cecconi is projected to be a slightly below-average pitcher with a 4.30 ERA and 4.39 FIP thanks to peripherals that are close to the league average. One area he's been strong at his whole career has been limiting free passes, with a 6.6% walk rate in the minors and a 3.6% clip in his first major league stint. As such, the projection has him walking only 6.2% of hitters. One area that points out a big concern is his strikeout rate of 19.3%, something that would have to improve for Cecconi to reach his ceiling as a No. 3/4 starter long term. As listed in the expectations of his prospect report, the development of his changeup will be the key for him to reach that ceiling.

Why Cecconi May Outperform the Projection?

The way this happens is if Cecconi simply forces his way onto the major league roster in some capacity. Over the course of a season, teams need 9-10 starting pitchers, which means he'll get his opportunities. How many opportunities he'll get very much depends on the health and performance of the pitchers ahead of him on the depth chart, but in the event Cecconi does take advantage of his first chances he'll get a longer leash. If he is able to make the improvements necessary to stick, starting with the development of a third usable pitch to complement his fastball and slider, the D-backs will have a very solid rotation to work with for the next two seasons.

The other possibility is Cecconi simply becomes a back of the bullpen reliever. The chances of that are fairly low given that he has yet to fail at the MLB level and the long term look of the rotation. His stuff would play up in shorter bursts, although there's no indications on how he'd handle the switch. 

Why Cecconi Might Underperform the Projection?

The hardest part in developing a starting pitcher prospect is the final push necessary for them to stick in a major league rotation. Very often it is a bumpy ride filled with tough stretches, which can be either a handful of games or even as long as the entire season. He's very much in the same area of development that Nelson was in a year ago, with the latter struggling to find the right feel for his slider for much of the season. Cecconi very well could see a similar arc play out, but won't have the same leash given the better rotation depth in 2024.

His opportunities are very much tied to the health and performance of other pitchers on the roster, so there is always the possibility that those opportunities don't come. Given that starting rotations rarely ever stay intact over the course of a season, the lack of opportunities would be a bad sign as it suggests he didn't earn it.

Summary

Cecconi is a starting pitcher prospect with a solid chance of sticking in the rotation for the long haul if he can develop a key third pitch. At the current stage of his career, he's not ready to be that guy who takes the ball every fifth day by the words of his own general manager. However given how he has improved every season in the minor leagues, it's very possible he forces the organization's hand and earn opportunities to pitch in the big leagues. With the team's best two pitchers possibly leaving after the 2025 season, Cecconi's development is going to be a key part of the team's success in 2024 and beyond.