Putting Together an Adalberto Mondesi Trade Package With Red Sox

The 2022-23 offseason hasn't gone according to plan for the Boston Red Sox, and a large reason why stems from two-time All-Star shortstop Trevor Story undergoing elbow surgery. Boston has been reviewing free agent and trade options alike, as Story is expected to miss a considerable portion of the upcoming 2023 campaign. As recently as a week or so ago, one of those options was reportedly Kansas City Royals infielder Adalberto Mondesi.

According to Chad Jennings of The Athletic, Boston has discussed Mondesi but there's "absolutely no indication" that talks have advanced past the exploratory stage. If there's even remote interest in the 27-year-old, Kansas City would be wise to at least entertain communicating with the other party about it. In the event of a trade, what could Mondesi net in return? Because of recent injuries (ACL in 2022, most notably) and inconsistent play throughout his career, his value is difficult to get a read on.

A low-tier prospect may be the best place to start. This is a very imperfect science, but the Baseball Trade Values trade simulator gives Mondesi a median trade value of 1.5. In Boston's farm system, there are three pitchers with respective median values of 1.4, 1.7 and 1.7. The highest prospect ranking of the group in the organization's top 30 list is 25th, so an overpay in a straight-up swap is unlikely. Let's take an individual look at what these pitchers could offer Kansas City if one of them were hypothetically sent over in exchange for Mondesi this winter or spring. 

1. Franklin German 

Franklin German, a 25-year-old who was selected in the fourth round of the 2018 MLB Draft by the New York Yankees, spent his first couple of years with that organization before ending up in Boston in 2021 in an intra-division trade. The No. 25 prospect in Boston's system, German posted a 5.12 ERA in 84.1 Double-A innings in 2021 before returning and having a great 11.1-inning stretch in 2022. He spent most of his season in Triple-A, tossing just over 38 innings and posting a 2.58 ERA with a 10.80 K/9 and a 0.47 HR/9 in 32 appearances. German made his big-league debut in September and appeared in five games overall for Boston, but he allowed eight runs in four innings.

A former starter from early in his professional career, German has been exclusively a relief option since the beginning of last year. He boasts an electric fastball that reportedly touched 99 mph last spring, and he complements it with a developing slider and a splitter that, while improved, still needs some work. German seemed thoroughly overmatched in his brief MLB stint at the end of last season, seeing his command issues creep back up (four walks in four innings) while also giving up a pair of home runs. Boston's patience could be running thin with him, and the same thing could possibly be said about Kansas City and Mondesi. 

2. Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz

Another former fourth-round pick, Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz was picked up by Boston with the No. 105 overall pick in 2021. Still just 19 years old, the only sample size he has at the minor league level is 32.1 innings of Complex play and six innings at Low-A this past year. In those two stints, he kept his ERA low (1.95 and 1.50) and struck out a decent amount of bats (10.02 and 9.00 K/9) but also had underlying peripherals (2.80 and 3.35 FIP) that indicate he was benefitting from a bit of small sample size fortune. Nevertheless, Rodriguez-Cruz flashed some of his upside in his first professional season.

Praised for his projectability coming out of college and his smooth mechanics and delivery, Rodriguez-Cruz has a four-pitch mix that he relies on. His fastball and curveball are his best two offerings, as both have enough movement to provide some intrigue. His slider and changeup, however, both need work in order to become consistently quality pitches. Reportedly weighing just 160 pounds, putting muscle on will help Rodriguez-Cruz fill out his frame. His decent ceiling makes him a wild card in regard to the Red Sox wanting to trade him, but he's so far away from the big leagues that it's hard to rule shipping the org's 27th prospect away out of the question. David Lesky at Inside the Crown agrees.

3. Shane Drohan 

Ranking just one spot below Rodriguez-Cruz on MLB's Red Sox prospect list, Shane Drohan was a fifth-round pick in 2020 and turned 24 in January of this year. After a mixed bag of a debut in Low-A (3.96 ERA in 88.2 innings with a 4.57 BB/9 in his 23 starts), the lefty started 2022 at High-A and saw a spike in strikeouts (8.73 K/9 to 11.58) over the course of 22 games before being promoted to Double-A to end the season. In 24 innings there, he had a 3.38 ERA but his FIP (5.75), strikeout average (7.88 K/9), walk rate (4.13 BB/9) and home run rate (1.88 HR/9) were all worse than his previous stop.

Drohan's changeup has been his best pitch since getting out of college, as his low-90s fastball is nothing to write home about and his curveball has some great triumphs mixed in with plenty of failures as well. Almost exclusively a starter so far in his professional career, the Red Sox have yet to pull the plug on that experiment. They don't have a reason to, but 2023 is a big year for Drohan. If he comes back with a vengeance and performs like more of his High-A self, he'll possibly pitch big-league innings. If he continues to trend in the wrong direction, he may get moved to the bullpen. In the case of a Mondesi trade, Kansas City could do worse.

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