Rangers RHP Jake Odorizzi's readiness for Opening Day in doubt

Rangers GM Chris Young provided an update on right-hander Jake Odorizzi, who has spent the beginning of the spring battling arm fatigue, via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Odorizzi has been throwing bullpen sessions, but has yet to face live hitters. As Young notes, that puts his readiness of Opening Day into question.

Odorizzi, who is entering his age-33 season, was an All Star in 2019 as a member of the Twins, posting a 3.51 ERA (129 ERA+) and 3.36 FIP in 159 innings of work that season. Since then, however, the righty has struggled to reach those heights: a 4.45 ERA (93 ERA+) and 4.48 FIP in 224 2/3 innings split between the Twins, Astros and Braves indicate Odorizzi could be more of a back-end option than the mid-rotation arm he appeared to be in 2019.

Odorizzi’s slow ramp-up isn’t too significant of a concern for a Texas organization that managed to build up exceptional pitching depth this offseason. In addition to acquiring Odorizzi from the Braves, the Rangers signed Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney, while 2022 standout Martin Perez accepted a qualifying offer to stay in Texas for the 2023 season. Those signings, combined with the steady presence of Jon Gray in the Rangers rotation, had seemingly pushed Odorizzi out of the starting rotation headed into camp. Grant indeed notes the club was planning on using the right-hander as a long reliever entering the season.

With Odorizzi seeming likely to miss time, the Rangers are likely to turn their attention to the youngsters who’ve been pushed into depth roles by this offseason’s acquisitions. Each of Dane Dunning, Glenn Otto, Cole Ragans and Spencer Howard made at least eight starts for the Rangers in 2022, with Dunning and Otto each taking on essentially a full season’s workload in the rotation. Each of those four hurlers, while pushed down the depth chart significantly this offseason, could make sense to replace Odorizzi as the long man in the club’s Opening Day bullpen, and that same group is surely where the next man up will come from should any member of the high-risk, high-upside big league rotation hit the injured list early in the year. Howard, it’s worth noting, is dealing with some arm fatigue of his own, but the club does not consider his situation to be a significant concern, per Grant.

Dunning appears to be the best of the bunch, even in spite of the weak 4.46 ERA (88 ERA+) he posted in 2022 across 153 1/3 innings of work. That’s because despite those mediocre numbers, Dunning actually led the quartet in ERA, FIP and strikeout rate last year, and his overall career line is one of a roughly league-average starter in the big leagues: The 28-year-old sports a 4.43 ERA (94 ERA+), a 4.20 FIP and a 21.6% strikeout rate against an 8.9% walk rate in 305 career innings in he majors. With that being said, Dunning is held back from being a quality big league rotation option by a penchant for allowing too much high-quality contact. The right-hander was in the bottom 22% of qualified big leaguers at preventing barrels last year and sports a worrisome hard-hit percentage of 39.6% for his career, numbers that help explain why 14.6% of his fly balls have left the yard for his career.

If Dunning’s contact quality issues concern the Rangers, they could turn to one of the other three options, but Otto ranked among the league’s worst in virtually every Statcast category last season and Howard has struggled to an ERA over 7.00 for the first 111 2/3 innings of his big league career, leaving Ragans as perhaps the best alternative. Although Ragans struggled in his first taste of big league action in 2022, with a 4.95 ERA (80 ERA+) in 40 innings, he pitched effectively in the minors last year, posting a 3.04 ERA in 94 2/3 innings of work split between Double-A and Triple-A.