Tommy Troy to Establish Himself as a Top Prospect in 2024

This article is part of a series counting down the Diamondbacks' Top 30 prospects entering the 2024 season. These rankings are determined by Michael McDermott, in conjunction with the Inside the Diamondbacks staff.

Summary: The D-backs were high on Tommy Troy in the 2023 draft process due to his well-rounded skill set and high makeup grades. A northern California native who grew up rooting for the D-backs due to playing various tournaments in the state, he'll have the opportunity to suit up for them after Arizona selected him at No. 12 and signing a $4.4 million bonus. Troy's long term position is a question mark, but that's more due to the current roster dynamics at play and how the farm system turns out than his actual defensive skill. Depending on how the next two seasons unfold, he could be a starting second baseman, shortstop, or third baseman.

Rank: 3

Age: 22

Height/Weight: 5'10" 197 lbs.

Bats/Throws: Right/Right

Tools: Hit 55, Power 50, Defense 55, Run 60, Arm 50, Overall 50

ETA: 2026

What the D-backs are saying about him?

"He's a player we scouted back to high school. We scouted him a lot in high school. We think he's a shortstop, we're really excited about the bat, obviously being a three-year performer at Stanford. He's had a lot of success at the Cape and in wood bat leagues. We think he profiles well as a hit and power, defending, up the middle player. He's super athletic, he's a plus runner. There's a lot of conviction from both our scouting and analyst group on that bat, so really excited to get him with the first pick." - Scouting Director Ian Rebhan, July 2023

2023 Recap: Troy began the season as Stanford's starting third baseman, but suffered a foot injury in March. He played through the injury, putting up an impressive .394/.478/.699 slash in 58 games as Stanford got into their third straight College World Series appearance. The D-backs selected him with the No. 12 pick and after a short run with the complex was assigned to High-A Hillsboro. With Hillsboro, he hit .247/.343/.447 (114 wRC+) with four home runs and eight stolen bases in 23 games. The strikeouts were a bit elevated, with 26 in 99 plate appearances, but not enough of a sample size to place much stock in long term. After the season was over he had surgery on his injured right foot, which turned out to be fractured. He should make a full recovery by the time minor league camp opens in February.

2024 Expectations: Troy will repeat Hillsboro, but could be in Double-A Amarillo pretty quick. The D-backs expect him to fly up the system with the possibility of a major league debut in the second half of the 2025 season. He'll continue to develop at the shortstop position in the minors, although he could move positions if top prospect Jordan Lawlar establishes himself as the guy on the major league roster. Over the course of a season, the main area to look toward improvement is in quality of contact without the cost of plate discipline. Every year at Stanford he improved, and the expectation is he will continue to do the same in the pros. Depending on how next year goes, he could very well be the D-backs top prospect a year from now.

Projection: Troy is one of three players in the D-backs system that have above-average regular upside in the system and has perhaps the highest floor of them all. He has the ceiling of an everyday shortstop who could hit .270 with above-average strikeout and walk rates, 25 home runs, and 25 stolen bases. Once Troy gets into Double-A, it will be a quick ascension towards Arizona. His ability to square up high velocity fastballs already yields a high floor as a hitter, his ability to recognize breaking balls will determine the ceiling.