What are reasonable expectations for Huascar Ynoa in 2024?

One of the "other options" commonly thrown out when discussing the rotation depth for the Atlanta Braves in 2024 is righty Huascar Ynoa. The 25 year-old missed all of last season rehabbing from September 2022 Tommy John surgery, but is reportedly healthy and will have no restrictions for spring training next month.

What are reasonable performance expectations for Ynoa's return to the active roster? 

It'd be wise to not expect much, at least early

Ynoa's last full season in the majors was 2021, where he went 4-6 with a 4.05 ERA in 17 starts. Pitching 91 innings, he struck out 100 batters (9.9 K/9) and walked 25 (4.1), but homers were a problem, with 14 (1.6 HR/9) on the season. 

The trouble started when Ynoa broke his hand against Milwaukee on May 16th, in an outing where he allowed five runs on nine hits in only 4.1 innings. 

(And if you were curious, he broke the hand by punching a dugout bench during that Milwaukee start.)

Going on the injured list for three months, he wasn't the same pitcher when he came back, putting up a 5.05 ERA in his final nine starts of the season. Those difficulties continued into 2022, and after giving up ten combined runs in his first 6.2 innings, he was sent to Gwinnett for the rest of the season (where he had a 5.68 ERA in seventeen starts). 

From a workload perspective, Ynoa pitched two seasons under 100 innings each, and then missed all of 2023. So his rehab work notwithstanding, Ynoa's initial capacity to handle full-length outings is a question and something we'll be watching for at spring training. 

Additionally, one of the last things to come back for a pitcher after Tommy John surgery is typically their control. Ynoa was already a pitcher with only average walk rates, having walked 3.3 batters per nine innings across his 122.1 MLB innings in his career. 

Shorter outings, potentially with traffic on the bases, will probably be the norm for Ynoa's early starts next season.

But there's reason to be hopeful

For all of those reasons to be cautious, there's a reason that Ynoa is one of the few injured pitchers that Atlanta chose to keep this offseason when they overhauled their 40-man roster. 

Look at what he did to open 2021, prior to that disastrous Milwaukee start: a 4-1 record in seven starts, with a 2.23 ERA and 44 strikeouts to only nine walks. 

Sporting 90th percentile fastball velo of 97 mph (on average), Ynoa combined that fastball with a vertical-breaking slider to confound hitters, racking up a 32% CSW (Called Strikes plus Whiffs) in that stretch. 

With some increased use of the changeup (only thrown 6% of the time), Ynoa's got weapons that profile as better than 5th starter quality. 

So what should Atlanta do with him?

Great question. Our own Jake Mastroianni wrote about him back in October, saying that Atlanta could either use him out of the bullpen initially or exercise his final minor league option to let him start the season in AAA Gwinnett. 

Now that the Braves have bolstered both the rotation and the bullpen for 2024, sending Ynoa to Gwinnett to start the season makes the most sense. Let's make sure that the walks are under control, let's see what pitch he added during the rehab process (as many pitchers take that opportunity to figure out a new addition to their arsenal), and let's set him up for sustained success over the long-term before calling him back up. As he hits his first year of arbitration this season, he's got multiple years of team control and could be needed in the rotation for 2025, depending on what happens with Max Fried, Charlie Morton, and Chris Sale. 

But that's another article. 

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