What Should We Expect From Starter Reynaldo López in 2024?

The Atlanta Braves have, with seven Grapefruit League games left, already set the Opening Day roster. 

Optioning Bryce Elder to AAA Gwinnett on Monday morning means they've decided on the final rotation spot. 

So what should we expect from Reynaldo López, who is entering the season as a starting pitcher for the first time since 2020? 

The conversion to starting

López has admitted that converting to starting after three years as a reliever isn't a simple or quick process, but he feels good about where he's at as we enter the final week of Grapefruit League action.

"It’s been three years since I’ve been a starter, so I think it takes a little while for the body to catch up and get accustomed to the differences and the toll it takes on the body. Obviously it’s different to go out there and throw five innings, as opposed to just throwing a bullpen or throwing an inning and something like that. So, yeah, I think it’s just the process and the evolution of transitioning back into a starting role.”

The biggest question has been about his fastball velocity - after sitting around 99 or 100 as a reliever, he's mostly throwing 94 or 95 mph this spring. He's occasionally hit 96 on the fastball and expects that to happen more often: "As the body keeps adapting to it (starting), I feel like velocity will continue to go up,”

So in our best-case scenario here, let's assume that his velocity, while not consistently sitting in the upper-90s or 100, does level out at 95-96. What's a reasonable production expectation for him, in that case?

López had a positive fastball run value in 2018 (+5) and a negative in 2019 (-7) despite virtually identical velocities - 95.5 vs 95.4 - but López has previously discussed his vision issues and how they caused him to struggle in all respects in 2019. It's reasonable to believe that, given similar velocity, he can outperform those early-career stats. 

FanGraphs has López at a high-3's ERA, for the most part, with ZiPS DC at 3.67 (on 105 innings) and FGDC at 3.99 on 114 innings. 

And for a fifth starter, that's absolutely something you'd take, yes. 

But there's a caveat on both projections: That's at 16 starts, with the rest of his appearances coming from the bullpen.  

And that workload issue is the next big question for López. His last two full years as a starter (2018 & 2019, excluding the shortened season), he pitched 180+ innings. While a jump of that size isn't realistic, as he's not exceeded 70 innings in the last two, a jump into the 110s could theoretically be done if his workload is managed (potentially with a bullpen move later in the season, as FanGraphs is projecting.) 

Atlanta hasn't explicitly said what they're expecting from López as far as innings as they look to help both him and oft-injured Chris Sale make it through the season. “We’ll just use common sense as we navigate the whole seven months,” manager Brian Snitker told the media on Monday.

But the good news is, this organization is uniquely primed to manage the innings of two starters this season, owing to the rotation depth that they were forced to develop last season. 

Triple-A Gwinnett projects to have a full six-man rotation even if returning Huascar Ynoa, who made his spring training debut on Sunday, is in the bullpen.