Why Padres – yes, Padres! – could win World Series in next five years

The Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs won the past three World Series championships, and the high-profile New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers have enjoyed steady success. But the team set up superbly for continued dominance may be way off your radar: the small-market San Diego Padres. 

After the failed pursuit of relevance that included additions of big-name veterans Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Craig Kimbrel, James Shields, Brad Hand and Fernando Rodney, San Diego GM A.J. Preller took a giant step back to make a quantum leap forward. The Padres traded ...

• Kemp to Atlanta, greatly reducing their financial obligation to the outfielder.
• Kimbrel to Boston for a package headlined by center fielder Manuel Margot and pitching prospect Logan Allen.
• Shields to the Chicago White Sox for a raw, young infielder named Fernando Tatis Jr.
• Hand to the Indians at the trade deadline last summer for switch-hitting catcher Francisco Mejia.
• Rodney to Miami to help its bullpen down the stretch, acquiring young, Class A pitcher Chris Paddack. 

Preller and his staff feverishly poured manpower into international scouting, player development and the draft. And in doing so they've transformed a once-barren minor league talent pool into the top-rated system in the game for back-to-back years.

In addition to adding Margot, Allen, Mejia, Tatis Jr. and Paddack in trades, San Diego drafted pitchers Cal Quantrill, Mackenzie Gore and Ryan Weathers and infielder C.J. Abrams in the first round and crushed home run after home run in the international market. In infielders Luis Urias and Gabriel Arias and pitchers Luis Patino, Michael Baez, Adrian Morejon, Andres Munoz and Ronald Bolanos, San Diego has imported an influx of high-end talent that is bubbling to the surface at the same time. 

The moves haven’t paid immediate dividends — the Padres are 49-56, 19 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West — but San Diego is set up to challenge its division rivals. 

For a team that hasn't qualified for the postseason since 2006, and hasn't finished with a winning record since 2010, a dynamic farm system can only do so much. That's why San Diego's situation didn't turn in its favor until it signed highly decorated first baseman Eric Hosmer to a massive free-agent contract before the 2018 season. The former Royal struggled a little in his first season in southern California (18 HR | 69 RBI | .253), but that only mattered to a small extent. The fact that the little San Diego Padres had the finances and wherewithal to attract one of the offseason's most high-profile free agents got the attention of front offices and players. And Hosmer himself said one of the organization's biggest draws (in addition to the San Diego climate) is the state of its farm system.

What the Padres pulled off this past offseason was even more important. Two 26-year-old players in their prime (3B Manny Machado and OF Bryce Harper) were available in free agency, an unprecedented occurrence, and San Diego was determined to land one of them. The Padres had to wait longer then they'd have hoped, but just as spring training camp was opening in mid-February, San Diego got its man. Machado agreed to a 10-year, $300 million deal that at the time was the richest contract in American sports history. (The deal has since been passed by Harper’s and Mike Trout’s.)

Now armed with one of the best players in the game patrolling the hot corner at Petco Park, and an above-average veteran across the diamond at first, San Diego entered this season believing it was close to a return to prominence. Fast forward four months, and their reasons for optimism are evident: Shortstop Tatis Jr. and second baseman Urias are playing regularly as the team's double play combination. If not for the outstanding play of Mets' first baseman Pete Alonso, Tatis Jr. would be the favorite for NL Rookie of the Year.

Mejia spent a month in the minor leagues beginning around Mother's Day, but he has hit .284 while sharing time behind the plate with Austin Hedges. Paddack has displayed ace-like stuff and tenacity on the mound as a rookie.

San Diego clearly has a young offensive core it believes in, but its pitching depth, at least while it waits for minor league reinforcements, is lacking. Outside of Paddack, Quantrill and left-hander Joey Lucchesi, the club lacks reliable big -league starters. And while the Padres’ dominant closer, Kirby Yates, may be MLB’s best reliever in baseball, getting the ball to him has been an adventure.

That’s why Preller's greatest challenge may be to come. He has spent years tearing down an unsuccessful, aging roster in favor of a more athletic and exciting team. But he remains a pitcher or two away — which is why San Diego is involved in rumors swirling about seemingly every upper-echelon, controllable starter —-- whether it's the Mets’ Noah Syndergaard, Cleveland's Trevor Bauer, Texas' Mike Minor or someone else. The Padres have minor league talent to acquire just about any pitcher they desire, but they want to bring in the right player and not overpay. 

The Padres deem Gore off limits, as they envision him becoming their version of the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw. In 15 starts in High-A this season before his recent promotion, the left-hander compiled a 1.02 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP and .137 batting average against in 79.1 innings. His teammate, Patino, has been nearly as good. It’s unclear if the team would consider moving him. 

The other pressing issue for Preller is the status of Yates, whose fate quite possibly ties in with the team's pursuit of a starter. The market this time of year for a reliever of his caliber is red-hot, but it's far from a sure thing San Diego would deal him. Should San Diego acquire Syndergaard or Bauer, however, a Yates deal would be the most surefire way to offset the prospect capital it would have sent east. But for a team with visions of overthrowing its rival from Los Angeles in the NL West as early as next summer, Yates is probably more valuable to the Padres than minor leaguers. These are all examples of why the final touches of a rebuild are always the toughest.

Regardless of what happens this week, look for San Diego to be actively involved in the free-agent market for starters Gerrit Cole and Zack Wheeler in the winter. The Padres may have to get creative with either their own young internal options or the trade market to address the bullpen, as the free-agent class of relievers is not exciting.

The 2019 season was always built to be a stepping stone for this organization, as Paddack and Quantrill are assuredly going to face innings limits, and Tatis Jr., Urias, and Mejia will  experience growing pains. But this is a team that is an improved pitching staff away from dominating, and Preller and Co. have worked too hard on this to not see it through.

San Diego's 2020 opening-day starting pitcher is not on its roster, but his identity will be revealed soon. With organizational depth built to deal with injuries that could derail weaker teams’ hopes, the Padres could win their first World Series championship in the next five years.