Yankees acquire starting pitcher from Pirates

Brubaker, 30, missed the entire 2023 season after requiring Tommy John in mid-April. In the three preceding seasons, he had been one of the steadier arms on Pittsburgh’s staff. He tossed 315 2/3 innings over the 2020 to 2022 campaigns, one of which was shortened by the pandemic, with an earned run average of 4.99.

Though that ERA may not be terribly exciting, it’s possible that it doesn’t represent his true skill level, with some underlying metrics painting a more favorable picture. He struck out 23.3% of batters faced in that stretch and walked 7.8%, with both of those numbers being slightly better than average for a starting pitcher in the modern game. His 44% ground ball rate was also right around typical league average.

The discrepancy may be down to luck, as his .313 batting average on balls in play and 70.1% strand rate have both been on the unfortunate side of par. ERA estimators like his 4.43 FIP and 4.04 SIERA suggest he may have deserved better. That was especially true in 2022, when he had a 4.69 ERA but a 3.92 FIP and 3.97 SIERA.

But it’s also possible the difference is down to Brubaker’s struggles with lefties, something explored by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco prior to Brubaker’s surgery. He only throws his changeup about 5.5% of the time and hasn’t had great results with it, meaning he doesn’t have a great weapon for tackling lefty hitters. They have hit .269/.339/.481 against him, compared to a line of .272/.342/.391 from righty-swinging opponents.

Whether the Yankees can help Brubaker find another gear remains to be seen, but there’s likely some appeal even if he remains a back-of-the-rotation kind of guy. The Yankees were looking for starting pitching this offseason, even after signing Marcus Stroman. Their need for rotation reinforcements was only increased with the recent news that Gerrit Cole is going to miss some time with an elbow issue.

Cole and Brubaker may be on somewhat similar timelines, as Cole was also placed on the 60-day IL, putting him on the shelf until at least late May but with an uncertain timeline after that. Brubaker won’t be able to help out during Cole’s absence but other injuries could crop up throughout the season that could require reinforcements. The Yankees currently have Stroman, Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodón in three rotation spots, all three of whom missed significant time last year. Luis Gil won a rotation spot out of camp despite missing most of the past two seasons recovering from his own Tommy John surgery.

Brubaker comes into 2024 with exactly four years of service time. He first qualified for arbitration going into 2023 and earned a salary of $2.275M. After sitting out the whole campaign, he agreed to the same mark this year, with one more arbitration season remaining.

For the Bucs, they were looking at another season and a half of Brubaker’s services, including next year and the post-All-Star portion of 2024. Once healthy, he would have been entering a rotation mix that currently consists of Mitch Keller, Martín Pérez, Marco Gonzales, Jared Jones and Bailey Falter, but prospects like Paul Skenesand Quinn Priester might be in there by midseason. Bubba Chandler will be a bit behind that group and Johan Oviedo, who will miss 2024 due to his own Tommy John, will be back in the picture next year.

General manager Ben Cherington spoke to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, saying that the club preferred to get something in return now. That return is unknown at this time but will become more clear when the PTBNL is revealed. In the meantime, they will save a small amount of money.

The Yanks will be taking on slightly more than the Bucs are saving since they are over the fourth line of the competitive balance tax and a third-time payor. That means they are paying a 110% tax on any money they add to the payroll at this point. On top of Brubaker’s $2.275M salary, they will also have to pay $2.5025M in taxes.

If Brubaker is healthy in a few months but the Yankee rotation is in decent shape, he has a couple of options and could be sent to Triple-A. That could provide the club with some extra depth, it could also give them an extra year of control. As mentioned, Brubaker is coming into 2024 with exactly four years of service time. He’s currently accruing more service time while on the 60-day IL but an optional assignment of a few weeks would prevent him from getting to the five-year mark this year.

Regardless of how that plays out, the Yankees are adding some rotation depth for the latter half of this year and for the future as well. Additionally, they’ve added some unknown amount of international bonus pool space. The Bucs have saved a bit of money and bolstered their system with another player who is presumably younger and more controllable than Brubaker, though the details of their return have not yet emerged.