2024 NBA playoff picture: Final magic numbers, scenarios, predictions

The Milwaukee Bucks control their destiny. If they beat the Magic on Sunday, they're the 2-seed. The Knicks and Cavaliers can't finish lower than fourth after their wins Friday. So 2-4 will be the Bucks, Cavs and Knicks in some order.

The Cavs have the tiebreaker over the Bucks but not the Knicks. The Bucks have the tiebreaker over the Knicks but not the Cavs. And the Knicks have the tiebreaker over the Cavs but not the Bucks.

If the Bucks lose and the Cavs and Knicks win for a three-way tie, the Cavs get the edge thanks to winning the division over the Bucks with a division record. So, they would be the 2-seed. Then, the Bucks would clear the Knicks by season series and get third, with the Knicks fourth.

If the Bucks lose, the Knicks win and the Cavs lose, then the Bucks stay in second, the Knicks get third and Cleveland goes fourth.

If the Bucks lose, the Cavs win and the Knicks lose, then the Cavs edge the Bucks with the tiebreaker for the 2-seed, the Bucks get third and New York falls to fourth.

The Bucks need to win Sunday not only to secure the 2-seed and get home court in the first two rounds, but the Magic losing decreases the chances the Bucks will see the Sixers or Heat in the first round.

All three teams will be motivated Sunday because they won't want to see the Celtics in the second round.

On the other end of the bracket, the Bulls are locked into ninth and the Hawks 10th. No 10-seed has ever made the playoffs through three years of the Play-In Tournament.

Then there's the 5-8 clump. This is where it gets nasty.

The Magic, Sixers and Pacers are tied. The Magic lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to both teams, but in multi-team ties, the division winner gets the first tiebreaker. Currently, that's the Magic. That's why Orlando remains fifth despite losing the tiebreaker to both teams.

However, if the Magic lose to the Bucks and the Heat win Sunday, they'll be tied. Miami won the season series, so they get the tiebreaker for the division, which means they'll jump the Magic and any other team tied with them. So if, theoretically, the four teams wind up in a tie, the Heat would jump all the way to fifth.

The Magic have the tiebreaker over the Pacers but not the Sixers, and the Sixers have the tiebreaker over the Magic but not the Pacers. The Pacers have the tiebreaker over the Sixers but not the Magic. So Orlando comes out on top of almost any tiebreaker that doesn't involve Miami. But if Orlando loses to the Bucks on Sunday, they could fall all the way to eighth.

Indiana is in a pretty good spot. The Pacers just need to avoid the weird division tiebreaker scenarios with Orlando and Miami to be fine. They have the tiebreaker over both the Sixers and Heat. If they win, they clinch a playoff spot.

The Sixers can still climb as high as fifth if both the Magic and Sixers lose and Philly wins.

The Western Conference is Bonkers

The Nuggets loss to the San Antonio Spurs on Friday night sent everything into complete chaos in the West.

The Nuggets, Thunder and Timberwolves are now tied again and will be if each wins Sunday. Here's how this works. You have to get division winner first since they're all in the same division. So, you take the cumulative head-to-head record between the three. The Thunder are 5-3, the Wolves are 4-4 and the Nuggets are 3-5.

So if the three teams finish tied, Oklahoma City gets the highest spot. If just the Thunder and Wolves are tied, though, the Wolves have the head-to-head tiebreaker and take home the 1-seed.

The Wolves play the Suns, who have given them a world of trouble the last few seasons. The Thunder, meanwhile, play the Mavericks, who not only are locked into the 5-seed. But if the Mavericks lose, they ensure Denver can't move up to the No. 1 spot, and in doing so, Dallas can avoid having Denver on its side of the bracket. The Mavs were maybe the biggest winner from Friday night's chaos.

If the Thunder lose, somehow, and the Wolves and Nuggets both win, then the Wolves get the 1-seed and Denver gets the second spot.

The only way for Denver to sneak back into the 1-seed is if they beat the Grizzlies (likely) and both the Wolves and Thunder lose. But even if the Thunder look like they're going to roll, the Nuggets still have to play hard for a chance at home court in the second round vs. the Wolves should both teams advance. The second seed, honestly, could be the sweet spot in the conference. You avoid LeBron James/Anthony Davis or Stephen Curry, get home court through two rounds at least and play more beatable teams in the Suns or Pelicans.

The Clippers and Mavericks are locked into the 4-5. They can't move up or down, so they'll play for the third time in five years.

Finally, there's the play-in mess.

The Pelicans' win makes their magic number for a playoff spot one. If they win Sunday, they clinch a playoff berth. If they lose, however, they lose the tiebreaker to the Suns and could wind up in the play-in.

Phoenix needs a win and a Pelicans loss to sneak out of the play-in tournament and into the sixth seed. Any other scenario and Phoenix finishes seventh.

The Lakers can clinch at least the 8-seed with a win Sunday. If they lose, they will almost certainly be in ninth or 10th because both the Warriors and Kings have the tiebreaker over them.

The Kings hold the tiebreaker over the Warriors. The Warriors can get eighth if they win and the Lakers and Kings lose. Likewise, the Kings can get eighth if they win and the Lakers lose. The Kings win all three-way tiebreaker scenarios.

What's Most Likely to Happen?

In the East, the Bucks have the motivation to beat the Magic. There's a chance they can knock the Magic into the play-in tournament, getting rid of at least one of the Heat or Sixers out of their bracket and potentially both. If they lose, there's also a chance they wind up having to play Boston in the second round. Nonetheless, the Bucks might rest the final game anyway with a playoff seed locked; the Magic are 4.5-point favorites.

The Cavaliers and Knicks are 15.5- and 16.5-point favorites, respectively. Let's assume the Bucks, Knicks and Cavaliers all win. That gives us this:

2: Bucks
3: Knicks
4: Cavaliers

The Sixers are 14.5-point favorites Sunday vs. the Nets, while the Pacers are 13-point favorites and the Heat are 16-point favorites.

There's a chance obviously for chaos and everything falls apart. But it should be noted that teams favored by 13 or more points in Game 82 — as all these teams are — are 29-2 since 2003, and teams favored by 15 or more points are 14-0 in Game 82.

So, the most likely outcome is that we finish with:

2: Bucks
3: Knicks
4: Cavaliers
5: Pacers
6: Sixers
7: Heat
8: Magic

In the West, the two games that are within two possessions on the spread are Suns vs. Timberwolves and Lakers vs. Pelicans. The Suns are 2-0 vs. the Wolves this season.

Let's assume Denver beats Memphis, the Thunder beat the Mavericks (who have already said they are resting and have zero incentive to win this game) and the Suns pull off the upset vs. the Wolves. However, the Pelicans have had a really bad time with the Lakers, who absolutely trounced them in Vegas. Let's say the Lakers pull off that upset. Then let's say the Kings and Warriors both win their games they are favored in. Here's the layout:

1: Thunder
2: Nuggets
3: Wolves
4: Clippers
5: Mavericks
6: Suns
7: Pelicans
8: Lakers
9: Kings
10: Warriors

This is where the trap really lies for the Lakers. They want to beat the Pelicans to avoid falling into the 9-10 bracket. But by doing so, it gives the Suns extra incentive to beat the Wolves. And the Suns beating the Wolves makes it virtually certain that Denver will be the 2-seed (unless they punt on the game and Memphis wins). So the Lakers can get this amazing sequence where they get the Pelicans twice for a playoff spot… only to wind up facing Denver.

We have a lot to figure out — Sunday's going to be wild. For bettors, be prepared that if you are playing a team whose outcomes are sealed in the second half, they're very likely (but not certain) to pull starters.

Enjoy the wild ending to the season.