Major July NBA storylines to watch

Where will Damian Lillard and James Harden land?

A pair of stars who have earned 14 All-NBA berths between them have requested trades from their respective teams, with Lillard seeking a move out of Portland and Harden looking for an exit from Philadelphia.

There should be no shortage of suitors for Lillard, who averaged a career-high 32.2 points per game in his 58 contests last season and still has four years left on his current contract. However, he has reportedly conveyed that he only wants to go to the Heat, limiting the Trail Blazers‘ leverage in trade talks.

The other 28 teams not on Lillard’s wish list may be reluctant to give up their best assets without knowing how he’ll respond if they acquire him. And the Blazers might be wary of taking a reputational hit if they send arguably the best player in franchise history somewhere he doesn’t want to go.

Still, Portland will want to maximize the return in its most important move of the season, so if Lillard’s going to end up in Miami, it will likely require a multi-team structure that gets the Blazers the assets they want — Tyler Herro reportedly isn’t one of them.

As for Harden, he’s said to be focused on the Clippers. The former MVP has requested three trades since the start of the 2020-21 season and is on an expiring contract that can’t be extended, so it’s unlikely that any team is prepared to give up a massive haul for him. However, Sixers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey is known to operate very deliberately in these situations and is unlikely to settle for an offer he doesn’t feel good about.

Will a restricted free agent sign an offer sheet?

As we outlined on Tuesday, many of this year’s best remaining free agents – including five of the eight still in play from our top-50 list – are restricted. That group includes players like Hornets forward P.J. Washington, Celtics forward Grant Williams, and Trail Blazers forward Matisse Thybulle.

An offer sheet can be signed during the July moratorium, but it’s rare for it to actually happen during that time, since the clock on the matching period doesn’t start until July 6. Teams typically aren’t eager to compromise their cap flexibility for several days waiting to see if their offer sheets will be matched, so if one is going to be signed this year, it’s likely to happen on or after Thursday.

While Washington, Williams, and Thybulle are the best candidates for an offer sheet, don’t overlook the other two available standard RFAs, Bulls guard Ayo Dosunmu or Sixers big man Paul Reed. There’s also a large group of two-way players who are technically restricted free agents, though we haven’t really seen teams pursue offer sheets with those players in the past.

Of course, if a team with strong interest in a restricted free agent wants to land him and doesn’t want to have to worry about whether his old team will match an offer, a sign-and-trade deal could get both sides what they want. Williams looks like the top candidate for such a move.

What will the Spurs do with their remaining cap room?

Keith Smith of Spotrac (Twitter link) estimated on Sunday that the Spurs still have north of $25M in cap room. They’re the only team whose salary currently projects to be well below the minimum floor (90% of the cap), and the rule tweaks in the CBA mean they have every reason to spend at least to the minimum before the regular season begins. If they don’t, they’ll lose their cap room up to the floor and forfeit a portion of their share of the end-of-season luxury tax distribution.

There has been no indication so far that the Spurs are considering making a play for one of the top available restricted free agents. That certainly doesn’t mean it won’t happen, but it appears San Antonio’s preferred route would be to accommodate a salary-dump trade or two and continue stockpiling assets. That was the path the team took when it got involved in the Max Strus sign-and-trade deal between Cleveland and Houston, picking up a second-round pick along with Cedi Osman and Lamar Stevens.

That makes the Spurs a team to watch as a potential factor in the Lillard and Harden sweepstakes.

San Antonio isn’t the only club with some cap room remaining. Houston and Orlando can generate between $10-15M, per Smith.

That’s probably more interesting for the Rockets than the Magic, given how the two teams have approached the offseason so far — after agreeing to lucrative multiyear deals with Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks, Houston could be looking to strike once more in free agency, whereas Orlando has been pretty quiet outside of making a deal to add Joe Ingles. I don’t get the feeling the Magic are looking to take advantage of their cap flexibility by making a significant addition.

Will the end of the July moratorium spur more action?

Most of the major free agent deals and trade agreements that have been reported since June 30 are tentative, since they can’t be officially completed until after 11:00 am Central time on Thursday, when the July moratorium ends.

Often, there’s a second wave or mini-rush of moves around that time, as teams begin officially using up their cap room and filling out their rosters. Notable unrestricted free agents who have yet to find a deal – such as perhaps Christian Wood or Kelly Oubre – may soon line up an opportunity, while separate trades that have been reported in pieces in recent days will come together as expanded multi-team deals.

While the end of the moratorium period doesn’t typically provide the sort of fireworks it did in 2019, when the Clippers landed Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in the early hours of the morning on July 6, it should be a busy Thursday in the NBA.

Which young players will make an impact in Summer League?

The Salt Lake City and Sacramento Summer Leagues got underway in Monday, but the main event – the Las Vegas Summer League – won’t tip off until Friday.

All eyes on the first day in Vegas will be on Spurs big man Victor Wembanyama, the No. 1 pick in last month’s draft. Wembanyama hasn’t suited up for his new NBA team at the Sacramento Summer League, but is expected to make his Spurs debut on Friday against No. 2 pick Brandon Miller and the Hornets, Marc Stein writes at Substack.

I wouldn’t expect Wembanyama to suit up for more than a game or two, but there will be plenty of other intriguing young players to watch in Las Vegas, including last year’s No. 2 pick Chet Holmgren, who had a promising 2023 debut on Monday in Salt Lake City.

Summer League success certainly doesn’t always carry over to the regular season, but it was a springboard to strong seasons last year for players like Keegan Murray (the 2022 Summer League MVP), Quentin Grimes, Santi Aldama, and Bennedict Mathurin.