Mavericks vs. Celtics picks, prediction for Friday, March 1

Mavericks vs. Celtics Prediction, Picks 

Friday, March 1, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Jayson Tatum Over 8.5 Rebounds | Dallas Team Total Over 114.5 (DraftKings)

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Mavericks Betting Outlook

The Dallas Mavericks are playing some of their strongest basketball of the season right now. They're 1-2 over their last three, but one of those games was a Max Strus half-court buzzer beater, and this three-game stretch was preceded by a seven-game winning streak.

The recent additions to the Mavericks' front court — P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford — and Maxi Kleber returning from injury have made the defense more stout and the offense more efficient. But they'll face a tough test in TD Garden against the Boston Celtics.

Luka Dončić is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. If Dončić is out, I would look to play Dallas Team Total Overs or Jayson Tatum over his rebounds line. As counterintuitive as that may sound, when Kyrie Irving is the main facilitator for the Mavericks, the pace ticks up and the team plays more 5-out basketball, attempting a high volume of 3s. In that scenario, the Dallas Team Total Over or Tatum rebound props are great targets.

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Celtics Betting Outlook

One team that can rival the Mavericks for how well they have been playing of late is the Boston Celtics, winners of their last nine games.

The knock on the Celtics all season has been the chance they get dinged up before the playoffs. Well, in this one, the Celtics don't have a single player even listed on the injury report.

I think Boston will have to play through its perimeter players after Dallas deepened its front court, so I expect a big game from the usual suspects in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

Mavericks vs. Celtics Prediction

Pick: Jayson Tatum Over 8.5 Rebounds | Dallas Team Total Over 114.5 

The early market signals have been pointing toward the Under, primarily because Dončić was added to the the injury report. However, I think this is a false flag and a time to throw out the market read, because when Dončić sits out and Irving plays, the Mavericks play at a blistering pace.

Without Dončić, Dallas still has a lead ball handler who is capable of scoring at will, and it surrounds him with more of a 5-out system. When Dončić is active, the Mavericks run a heavy pick-and-roll offense, which works a bit slower despite how efficient and elite it is.

We can buy low on Dallas Team Total Overs when the line drops if Dončić is ruled out.

Pick: Jayson Tatum Over 8.5 Rebounds | Dallas Team Total Over 114.5