NBA best bets, odds: Expert picks, player props and predictions for 5/2

Knicks vs. 76ers

Thursday, May 2, 9 p.m. ET, TNT
Under 200.5 (BetRivers)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

I talked about this play on the 'Buckets' podcast, and the cap is fairly simple. This is the second-slowest series of the playoffs and neither offense is running on all cylinders.

Of all 16 teams, the Sixers and Knicks rank 10th and 14th, respectively, in effective field goal percentage and neither defense causes many turnovers for fast breaks.

Mix in the fact that it's Game 6 (unders are 92-66 (58.2%) since 2005) and the short rest for both teams (especially Philadelphia and an injured Joel Embiid), and I think we're in store for a low-scoring game.

We've already seen a lot of movement towards the under in this game despite the low total. This initially popped at 202.5, but it's been bet down to 198.5 at the time of writing. It's at 200.5 at some books as of writing.

I don't see this getting much lower, so it might be worth waiting until tip-off to see if you can get some more runway on the under at a higher number.

Pick: Under 200.5

Joel Embiid Over 3.5 Turnovers (DraftKings)

By Joe Dellera

The Knicks now look to close out the series in Philadelphia while the Sixers try to force a Game 7.

Speaking of forcing things, Embiid has played a ton of minutes during this series, especially considering that he just returned from knee surgery.

His usage has remained lofty overall, however, he's been looking to be more of a facilitator as the Knicks’ defensive schemes have become more and more nuanced.

One of the primary differences in the Knicks' game plan since the beginning of the series is putting Josh Hart on Tyrese Maxey. While that’s had questionable results, it's limited Embiid on the offensive side of the ball a bit.

The Knicks are able to use OG Anunoby as either Embiid’s primary defender or as a floater for help defense. The biggest thing is the Knicks aren't committing to the double team early; rather, they're waiting for the first bounce because Embiid was crushing them with great passes when he saw the double teams come.

Since the Knicks made this change, Embiid has had four and nine turnovers in Games 4 and 5, respectively.

Game 6s and 7s generally slow down, and become more of a half-court slugfest. As the defensive intensity locks down, I expect Embiid — who's instrumental to his team’s success — to make at least one mistake with the ball per quarter.

I’ll grab Embiid to exceed 3.5 turnovers, a number he’s cleared in 58% of games this season when playing 35+ minutes.

Pick: Joel Embiid Over 3.5 Turnovers

Joel Embiid Over 3.5 Turnovers (DraftKings)

By Joe Dellera

The Knicks now look to close out the series in Philadelphia while the Sixers try to force a Game 7.

Speaking of forcing things, Embiid has played a ton of minutes during this series, especially considering that he just returned from knee surgery.

His usage has remained lofty overall, however, he's been looking to be more of a facilitator as the Knicks’ defensive schemes have become more and more nuanced.

One of the primary differences in the Knicks' game plan since the beginning of the series is putting Josh Hart on Tyrese Maxey. While that’s had questionable results, it's limited Embiid on the offensive side of the ball a bit.

The Knicks are able to use OG Anunoby as either Embiid’s primary defender or as a floater for help defense. The biggest thing is the Knicks aren't committing to the double team early; rather, they're waiting for the first bounce because Embiid was crushing them with great passes when he saw the double teams come.

Since the Knicks made this change, Embiid has had four and nine turnovers in Games 4 and 5, respectively.

Game 6s and 7s generally slow down, and become more of a half-court slugfest. As the defensive intensity locks down, I expect Embiid — who's instrumental to his team’s success — to make at least one mistake with the ball per quarter.

I’ll grab Embiid to exceed 3.5 turnovers, a number he’s cleared in 58% of games this season when playing 35+ minutes.

Pick: Joel Embiid Over 3.5 Turnovers

Miles McBride Over 9.5 Points (DraftKings)

By Maltman

During the regular season, Donte DiVincenzo was a Knicks staple and Miles McBride was his backup, especially after Immanuel Quickley was traded away.

DiVincenzo averaged 15.5 points per game during the regular season while McBride averaged 8.3.

But the playoffs are a different animal, and McBride is the better fit for this matchup. The Knicks are +24.3 points per possession when he's on the floor during the playoffs. He's a better fit defensively on Maxey because he has better speed, and offensively, he can create a little more.

His play has been rewarded with an increase in minutes.

During the regular season, when McBride played 22+ minutes, he had double-digit points in 20-of-22 games. He's played 26+ minutes three times in this series, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he started. I think he'll play 28 minutes tonight.

With the increased playing time and great shooting, I think this is an easy over.

I'm betting .5u on McBride over 9.5 points at -102 on DraftKings, and I would bet it to -120.

Pick: Miles McBride Over 9.5 Points