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Boston Celtics center Kristaps Porzingis (8) and forward Jayson Tatum (0). David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

NBA Props for Thursday March 7: All eyes on Celtics-Nuggets

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 3/7/24

I thought yesterday was going to be a losing day but it ended up being a wash with a 2-2 record. Jarrett Allen almost cashed his combined rebound prop with Clint Capela all on his own, while Draymond Green came through late and nailed a couple of three-pointers in the fourth quarter of the Warriors' win over the Bucks.

Tonight there are seven games on the NBA schedule but only one that everyone will be watching. Boston, with the best record in the league, is visiting the defending champs, Denver. The Nuggets took the first meeting in case you didn't remember.

NBA Props for Thursday, March 7

Duncan Robinson Over 3.5 Three Pointers (+110)

No Tyler Herro tonight for Miami so the Heat needs offense to come from somewhere. Facing Dallas and its light defense will help and my gut is telling me that Robinson will be able to get free from either Luka or Kyrie enough to make the Mavs pay from deep. He has bested this total in five of his last eight games. In two of the games he missed, he hit a couple of treys so he is always in the range.

Andrew Nembhard Over 2.5 Rebounds (+100)

I like Nembhard in the starting lineup next to Ty Haliburton so that they can both play on and off the ball. When he starts all of his numbers get a bump and tonight I look for a minutes spike against Minnesota as they try and contain Anthony Edwards. He has bested this total in six of his last eight games and it has been a little more consistent than his scoring.

Aaron Nesmith Over 12.5 Points (+100)

Last night we were behind Draymond Green even though he had not nailed a shot from deep in a few games. That is a similar situation for this game. Nesmith has not even scored in double digits in the last four games. All were on the road though and he is more efficient at home. For good measure, he scored 17 points and shot 50% in a loss at Minnesota back in December.

Michael Porter Jr. More Points than Kristaps Porzingis (+145)

I know this is MPJ vs Porzingis, but I think the presence of Nikola Jokic is a factor here too. Boston is going to have Porzingis guard him and that is not going to help with his production. At the same time, MPJ shoots the ball better at home and with more volume too. He was 5-for-9 against Boston when the Nuggets beat the Celtics on the road earlier in the season. He did not outscore Porzingis that night but I like him to bridge the gap tonight.

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