Suns-Grizzlies trade could end up haunting Phoenix

The trade, three second-round picks in 2025, 2028 and 2029 for two first-round pick swaps in 2024 and 2030, will have no bearing on who wins the Western Conference this season. But it could end up being one Phoenix regrets.

ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski rationalized the trade as Phoenix trying to recoup some of the six second-round picks it parted with in landing former Washington guard Bradley Beal. But for that to come at the expense of two first-round pick swaps could end up as a misfire if the core of Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Beal fails to deliver the Suns their first championship.

That those swaps are in the hands of the Grizzlies -- a team that should be a Western Conference contender for the rest of the decade thanks to its young core -- makes the situation worth keeping an eye on.

The Suns are likely anticipating Memphis won't want to swap picks in next year's draft. ESPN's Bobby Marks laid out an example of how the swap works. 

Memphis can elect to swap its pick for either Washington's or Phoenix's first-round pick, whichever one is later in the draft. The Grizzlies would only swap their pick (likely Phoenix's) if it moves them up, which isn't a sure thing.

Phoenix was the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference in 2021-22 before dropping to fourth last season. The Suns should be in the running for the top seed in 2023-24 with Beal, Booker and Durant in their primes. 

Memphis finished second the past two seasons but will be without point guard Ja Morant for 25 games as he serves a suspension for conduct detrimental to the league. The biggest insult would be for the Grizzlies to go on a deeper playoff run than the Suns and then take their pick. 

The 2030 swap is too far into the future to seriously worry about at this point, but it is another sign that Phoenix is going all-in on a title this upcoming season. Even if Washington and Phoenix land the top two picks that year and the Grizzlies take second overall from Phoenix, no one will care too much if the Suns win a title before then.

But if the same scenario plays out and Phoenix has failed to win the ultimate prize, people won't be as forgiving and this butterfly wing of a trade will turn into a hurricane.