Three NBA rookies who could shape stretch run of season

A few years ago, rookies in the NBA were expected to do one thing: be bad. OK, that's not entirely true. Top picks are always tasked with a set of expectations from day one, but even generational talents have historically been given a long leash to stumble out the gate and find their footing in the NBA.

In 2024, that's not the case anymore. First-year players are still expected to make a few "rookie mistakes," but the days of rookies being consistent negatives for their teams appear to be over. That's mostly because rookies are playing well enough that we forget they're rookies.

As the NBA season approaches its home stretch, multiple rookies will play major roles in determining how the season shakes out. Here are three of the most important. (Statistics and records are through Sunday's games.)

Chet Holmgren | Oklahoma City Thunder

Though he may finish second in Rookie of the Year voting to San Antonio's Victor Wembanyama, no other rookie will have as big an impact on the outcome of this NBA season than Holmgren (16.7 PPG, 7.6 RPG). That's because Holmgren isn't just a good player on a good team. He's the third-best player on an elite team, and his play could be what swings a playoff series or two for the Thunder (37-17).

The West is littered with elite big men — Anthony Davis of the Lakers, Nikola Jokic of the Nuggets and Domantas Sabonis of the Kings are nightmare matchups for opponents. Holmgren will be forced into action as the last line of defense for OKC. He's fully capable of holding his own — he's been doing it all season — but opponents might be quick to test the rookie when the playoffs start.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. | Miami Heat

Despite his production slowing a bit as the season progresses (9.6 PPG in February), Jaquez Jr is going to play a huge role in Miami's postseason plans. 

The rookie from UCLA brings a steady scoring spark (12.9 PPG) to a Miami team (30-25) that needs it badly. And his ability to create shots for himself in the midrange will become even more integral in a playoff setting. 

Jaquez has the makings of a Heat postseason star, potentially joining the likes of Max Strus, Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent and more.

Dereck Lively II | Dallas Mavericks

Are the Mavericks (32-23) contenders? That's tough to tell, but a deadline deal for P.J. Washington and six straight wins have Jason Kidd's team feeling like they belong with the West's elite.

Whether the Mavs have the horses to keep up with Denver, Minnesota and Oklahoma City is still to be determined. But if they do, it seems certain that rookie center Lively II (9.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG) will play a huge part.

Lively was the 12th pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, so he had a set of expectations on him immediately. But everyone in the organization would say that he has exceeded even the loftiest ones through his first NBA campaign. 

Dallas relies heavily on Lively II to "save" defensive possessions, and he's one of the only true elite defenders on the roster. That's a lot of pressure for a kid who just turned 20 earlier this month.