Why Warriors' dynasty may be in grave danger

When Kevin Durant limped off the court in the third quarter of Game 5 of the Warriors-Rockets series, broadcaster Reggie Miller immediately speculated that he’d torn his Achilles, a career-threatening injury. An MRI showed the injury was a calf strain, putting Durant out until at least next week. His leg should be fine long term, but since he’ll miss Games 6 and 7 of the Western Conference semis, it’s the Warriors' dynasty that’s suddenly in jeopardy. 

Here are five reasons why Golden State is more vulnerable than it has ever been in the playoffs. Yes, the three-peat is in grave danger.

Last year’s series is a discouraging precedent

A similar injury to a star player disrupted the 2018 Western Conference Finals, but the teams are in opposite positions this season. Last year, the Rockets held on to win Game 5 at home after Chris Paul got hurt late, giving them a 3-2 series lead. This year, the Warriors held on to win Game Five at home after Durant was injured late, giving them a 3-2 lead. Durant is an impending free agent. Paul was last year.  Both are great at shooting from mid-range, and both have been known to exaggerate contact from time to time.

The Paul-free Rockets came out strong in Games 6 and 7 in 2018, leading by double digits at the half in both games. But the undermanned team got tired and in the second half of those games, the Warriors outscored them by 59 points. Home-court advantage in Game 7 couldn’t trump the Rockets' fatigue. They missed their final 27 three-pointers of the game, a sure sign of tired legs. 

Curry may already be feeling tired, as he was on a serious cold streak before his big fourth quarter in Game 5. If history repeats, the second halves could be ugly for the Warriors, and they could be reduced to leaking a study one year later, arguing that with different officiating, they would have won. They must hope that things are more like 2016 than 2018 -– the Splash Brothers have been known to hit a lot of threes in a crucial Game 6 on the road before.

They must re-tool their offense on the fly

The Warriors leaned on Durant’s efficient isolation ball all post-season, but they must return to the Steph-centric, three-point-bombing offense of the 2014-16 team. The team may have grown used to Durant bailing out a stagnant offensive possession with his world-class shot-making, rather than running a system. Steve Kerr is famously reluctant to rely on Curry in the pick-and-roll, but that’s probably their best option without Durant. It also means they’ll need to be careful with the ball and avoid turnovers, which has never been a strength of this Warriors dynasty.

The upside is that Golden State should shrink the three-pointer gap (currently 78-53 in favor of Houston, which is five more made threes per game). No matter how well Durant was shooting on two-pointers, when Houston is taking half its shots behind the arc, outscoring the Rockets becomes a math problem. You must shoot 1.5 times better to match them, and that’s not even taking into account Harden’s specialty, the three-shot foul. 

Is there hope? It’s a small sample size for sure, but the Warriors posted a stellar offensive rating of 145 in the fourth quarter of Game 5 without Durant. Can they replicate that for a whole game? It’s unlikely, as they need below-average distance shooters Iguodala and Green to knock down shots to have a chance.

They’re running out of players

The Warriors leaned on their starters for heavy minutes this series, with Durant leading the way with 42 minutes per game. Kerr has stuck with veteran Shaun Livingston, the resurgent Kevon Looney, and Alonzo McKinnie, who last year was playing in the G League playoffs. The Warriors must make up a lot of Durant minutes, and the starters are already playing 40+ minutes. Golden State must hope the Swedish Larry Bird, Jonas Jerebko, can shake off the rust, backup Quinn Cook can hit a few shots and avoid James Harden on defense, and Andrew Bogut can provide a few minutes of rebounding and illegal screens. If anyone gets into a foul trouble, a distinct possibility when playing foul magnets Harden and Paul, Jordan Bell may finally escape Kerr’s doghouse, if he doesn’t charge anything else to Mike Brown’s hotel room. None of these options are great. Otherwise they’d have been playing already.

They’re beat up

Curry dislocated a finger earlier in the series, and now he’s playing with two fingers taped together. It might be the source of his struggles making layups (and especially dunks), but it’s certainly preventing him from driving to his left. Klay Thompson sprained his ankle in the last game of the Clippers series. Andre Iguodala hyperextended his knee in Game 4 after Paul ran into him, and Shaun Livingston has a sore hip, though Iguodala claims they’re both “just old.” The Warriors already lost Boogie Cousins to a torn quad tendon, original starting center Damion Jones was lost for the season months ago, and even Kerr has an injury (back). There’s no time to rest and let themselves heal even if they are forced to win a Game 7 -– the conference finals start Tuesday, and the young, healthy Nuggets or Blazers will be waiting for them without mercy.

Houston is hungrier

The Warriors are going for a third straight title, the first three-peat in 17 years. Golden State's place among the greatest teams in history is at stake, but it’s fair to ask if it is as hungry as Houston. Durant may have played his last game as a Warrior, before heading east to save the Knicks, or even south to the Clippers (though it would be out of character for KD to sign with a team he actually beat in the playoffs).

No matter what happens in the series, the Warriors are still moving into a fancy new bayside arena complete with in-seat butler service. Golden State might say goodbye to its old arena without Durant instead of moving to its new arena with him. But after three titles since 2015, this series doesn’t define the Warriors' legacy.

For Harden and Paul, a loss here almost certainly would. CP3 has never made the Finals, nor has Coach Mike D’Antoni, and Harden hasn’t been there since 2012. If the Rockets can’t beat a hobbled Golden State team this year, it’ll be Harden’s fourth loss in five years to the Warriors. Paul has been able to excuse playoff failures due to injury before, but he’s on the healthy team for once. There’s no lack of motivation for this team: revenge for last year’s loss, validation of Harden and D’Antoni’s system in the playoffs, even sibling-in-law rivalry as Austin Rivers battles new family member Steph Curry. The Rockets are healthier, more rested, and on paper, they’re the clear favorite. If Houston can’t break through the Warriors now, when will they ever? 

We'll learn the answer Friday in Game 6.