AFC team-by-team projection of surprise cuts: Is declining Raiders receiver a goner?

With free agency and the start of a new league year approaching March 13, teams are already deep into planning for the 2024 season. While NFL front offices re-shape rosters, Yardbarker league writers project the most surprising cut for each AFC team.

AFC East 

BUFFALO BILLS | CB Tre’Davious White | Buffalo must cut costs this offseason —it has the second-worst cap situation among teams — so releasing White is an unfortunate yet necessary move. The Bills will incur a $10.4M dead cap hit to cut White, who has been limited to just 21 games over the past three seasons, but their midseason acquisition of Rasul Douglas should soften the blow.

MIAMI DOLPHINS | CB Xavien Howard | The four-time Pro Bowler isn't the shutdown corner he once was, and although he can still contribute to Miami's defense, it appears he's unwilling to take a pay cut for next season. Howard is set to earn $25.9M in 2024, and designating him as a post-June 1 cut will save $18.5M while leaving a $7.4M dead cap hit.  

NEW YORK JETS | LB C.J. Mosley | While Mosley is a valuable veteran presence for the defense, he's on the decline entering his age-32 season. Parting ways with Mosley would be the most effective way for New York to free cap space for a pivotal offseason; cutting him after June 1 would save the team $17M. 

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS | DT Davon Godchaux | With a wide range of needs at key positions, the Patriots shouldn't waste $11.8M in cap space on a defensive tackle, especially one who was the 102nd-ranked interior defender by Pro Football Focus in 2023. New England would save $8.3M in cap space for next season by designating Godchaux as a pre-June 1 cut. — Colum Dell

AFC West

DENVER BRONCOS | DT D.J. Jones | In 17 games, Jones posted a career-low 56.2 Pro Football Focus grade and only had two sacks. His 2024 cap number is $12.95M; the Broncos would save $9.97M in cap space if they cut him with a post-June 1 designation. 

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS | WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling | Valdes-Scantling has won two Super Bowls in two seasons with K.C., but he had one receiving TD in 16 games in 2023, and his cap number is $14M. The Chiefs will save $12M if they release him — that's money the team could use to re-sign DT Chris Jones or add impending free-agent WR Mike Evans (Tampa Bay Buccaneers). 

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS | WR Hunter Renfrow | The former Pro Bowler’s regression continued this season, as he set career lows in receptions (25), receiving yards (255) and receiving TDs (zero) in 17 games. Jakobi Meyers has replaced him as the team’s No. 2 WR, so the Raiders should move on. Cutting him with a post-June 1 designation would save $11.88M in cap room.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS | WR Mike Williams | The Chargers are $45.8M over the cap and must move on from several players to create room. Williams has missed 19 games over the past two seasons due to a torn ACL and back injury. Releasing him would save $20M in cap room. — Clark Dalton

AFC North 

BALTIMORE RAVENS | LT Ronnie Stanley | Stanley, who has struggled to stay healthy since his All-Pro season in 2019, allowed four sacks and was penalized 10 times in 2023. Replacing a left tackle is never easy to do, but the Ravens would save $8.33M in cap space if they were to move on from their 2016 first-round pick.

CINCINNATI BENGALS | RB Joe Mixon | Mixon put together another solid season, rushing for 1,034 yards and nine touchdowns after taking a pay cut at the start of the season. But running backs have never been valued less, and the Bengals would save $6.1M if they were to cut Mixon, who turns 28 in July.

CLEVELAND BROWNS | WR Elijah Moore | The Browns traded their 2023 second-round pick to the Jets for Moore last offseason, but he rewarded them with just 640 yards receiving and two touchdown catches. Cleveland would save nearly $2M if it were to part ways with Moore, the No. 34 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and a player who has yet to live up to expectations.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS | DT Larry Ogunjobi | Ogunjobi has just 4.5 sacks over the past two years and will be 30 at the start of next season. The Steelers would save $6.21M in cap space if they were to move on from him. The emergence of DT Keeanu Benton, a rookie in 2023, will help lighten the blow. — Aaron Becker

AFC South 

HOUSTON TEXANS | Safety Jimmie Ward | Ward had a solid season in 2023, surrendering zero touchdowns and just 297 yards in coverage. However, Houston can create $4M in cap space by cutting Ward and drafting a younger replacement.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS | TE Mo Alie-Cox | Indianapolis has the fifth-most cap space in the NFL in 2024 ($66.3M), so the team isn’t exactly hurting for money, but if a cut must be made for cap reasons, Alie-Cox makes all the sense in the world. In 2023, he contributed just 13 receptions for 161 yards and three touchdown catches. The Colts would save $5.9M by cutting him.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS | OT Cam Robinson | With Anton Harrison locking down right tackle and Walker Little playing just four fewer snaps at left tackle than Robinson in 2023, the 28-year-old could be looking for a new team in March. Jacksonville ranks 18th in 2024 cap space; cutting Robinson would save the team $17.2M and double its current cap space to $34.4M.

TENNESSEE TITANS | Safety Amani Hooker | The Titans are flush with cash, with their projected $73.9M in cap space the second most in the NFL. However, Tennessee could bank another $6.81M if it designates Hooker as a post-June 1 cut and either drafts a younger safety or adds one in free agency. — Michael Gallagher