Atlanta Falcons ceiling and floor for 2023

With the regular season kicking off Thursday, we're dusting off our earlier guides on the ceilings and floors of each team in the NFL.

Here's what we said about Atlanta back in June. Let's examine what's changed.

Ceiling: 9-8 (original: 11-6)

With all the money owner Arthur Blank pumped into Atlanta's defense in free agency, the unit didn't appear much improved during the preseason. The Falcons allowed 142 rush yards per game (five yards per attempt) after allowing 130.2 yards per game (4.4 yards per attempt) last season.

Quarterback Desmond Ridder didn't get many preseason reps and may be slow to start in the regular season because of it. The Falcons begin with two winnable home games against the Panthers and Packers, although both could just as easily turn into losses. Divisional games can be a coin-flip while Green Bay matches up well with Atlanta. Corner Jaire Alexander should neutralize wide receiver Drake London. Can Atlanta win with the Ridder-Mack Hollins connection needing to come up big?

Floor: 7-10 (original: 7-10)

Even as the rush defense looks like a potential liability, Atlanta's schedule is so soft that it's hard to see this team finishing any worse than it did a season ago. The Falcons have the easiest schedule based on last year's win percentages and the second-easiest based on projected 2023 records. The defense might not make as big of a difference as Blank hopes, but the rush offense should be strong enough to keep Atlanta from regressing this season.

Yet as promising as the offense is, our initial assessment remains true. Defenses will focus on making rookie running back Bijan Robinson a non-factor, forcing Ridder to beat them. Robinson is still going to make game-changing plays, but Ridder will have to carry a lot of the weight. Thanks to its schedule, however, Atlanta shouldn't be among the league's worst teams even if Ridder fails to take command of the offense.