Buccaneers HC Todd Bowles could still be on thin ice

Bucs ownership has been looking into options at head coach for weeks, according to the Washington Post’s Jason La Canfora, who points Bowles not being a lock to return even if the team does hold off its rivals and advances to the postseason. A one-sided wild-card loss would put Bowles in jeopardy of being fired a week after Black Monday.

No coach has been let go following back-to-back playoff berths since the Broncos replaced John Fox with Gary Kubiak following the 2014 season, which ended with a divisional-round upset against the Colts. The Bucs made a similar change weeks after a divisional-round exit 2022, but while some classified Bruce Arians‘ mid-offseason retirement as a Tom Brady power play, the veteran HC repeatedly insisted that was not the case. But firing a coach after a playoff berth is not common ground in recent NFL history. No coach has been canned firing a playoff appearance since the Titans axed Mike Mularkey following the 2017 team’s divisional-round voyage.

Of course, should Bowles hold serve and guide his team to win over Carolina, this would not be akin to the Fox ouster. The Broncos had won at least 12 games from 2012-14; the Bucs will close out back-to-back seasons with fewer than 10 victories. They are the odds-on favorite to win a bad division for the second straight year. Bowles received four years with the Jets, going 34-34 from 2015-18. A win Sunday would put him at .500 through two years in Tampa (17-17) as well.

Bowles, 60, oversaw one of the most dominant defensive efforts in Super Bowl history, as the Bucs held the high-octane Chiefs offense without a touchdown and was a sought-after DC candidate back in 2019. He oversaw a disappointing 2022 season in Brady’s finale, firing several assistants – including OC Byron Leftwich – at season’s end.

This year’s team started 3-1 but slunk to 4-7. After four straight wins, the Bucs fell behind 17-0 in a loss to the Saints that left their playoff hopes in doubt. The Panthers matchup doubles as a must-win for the Bucs, and it may well become a must for Bowles as well. This is certainly an unstable time for the NFC South; rumblings about the job security of Arthur Smith and Dennis Allen have come up weeks after the Panthers canned Frank Reich.

Should Tampa Bay move on, it could also complicate Baker Mayfield‘s status with the team. A shift to a new HC could mean a new offensive play-caller, with Dave Canales in limbo without Bowles; that might mean a pivot at quarterback as well. The Bucs firing GM Jason Licht, rumored last month, would further complicate a Mayfield return, La Canfora posits. As of now, Mayfield and the Bucs have mutual interest in a second contract. The former No. 1 overall pick would be an interesting free agent, being set to carry more value than he did last year, if the Bucs let him reach the market.