Can the 49ers Avoid a Disastrous Upset Against Upstart Packers?

This isn’t a knock on Love. This is a compliment. A quarterback who is lighting it up within a system is much harder to defend than a quarterback who says “Davante down there somewhere” and only throws to one person. Love spreads the ball around. It’s impossible to pinpoint a number one target because he’s genuinely interested in only getting the ball to the open man and the hot hand. San Francisco can’t just triple-team or put a box around one guy all day.

Meanwhile, the 49ers’ offense has become a juggernaut under Brock Purdy. In a franchise that has employed Steve Young and Joe Montana, Purdy became the 49ers’ single-season franchise record holder for passing yards in a single season. Receiver Brandon Aiyuk blossomed into a true number-one receiver with Purdy pushing the ball downfield more than Garoppolo ever did. Tight-end George Kittle enjoyed his first 1,000-yard season since 2019 as well.

49ers Offense vs Packers Defense

This is not going to be a fun week for defensive coordinator Joe Barry. Stopping the 49ers offense is pretty much impossible. Barry is not on the level of the Ravens’ DC Mac MacDonald, Browns’ DC Jim Schwartz, Bengals’ DC Lou Anarumo, or Vikings’ DC Brian Flores as a play-caller or defensive mind. Green Bay also doesn’t have the defensive units on par with those squads. Those 4 are the only ones who had success against Purdy in his 21 NFL starts.

In fact, Barry’s defense was one of the only ones to make Carolina’s league-worst offense and struggling rookie quarterback Bryce Young look competent. Young passed his only 300+ yard game of the season and the Panthers’ offense scored 30 points, their highest point total of the season and the only time they scored more than 24 points. Green Bay also sports the league’s 5th worst rush defense and allowed 4 separate 200-rushing-yard performances throughout the season.

The 49ers came in second in total yards per game (398.4) and touchdowns (61). They were the fourth-best passing offense in the league with 257.9 passing yards per game and were the third-best rushing offense with 140.5 rushing yards per game. They are also the third-best scoring offense in the league (28.9). This is not looking to be a favorable match-up for the Packers’ defense at all. Unlike the Dallas Cowboys, the 49ers offense can kill you in multiple ways. Christian McCaffrey and Purdy are both capable of carrying the offense on any given day, but the offense as a whole does work better when McCaffrey is at his best.

McCaffrey led the league in rushing yards (1,459) and tied for most touchdowns (21) in 2023. He also led all running backs in receiving yards (564) and led the league in total yards from scrimmage (2,023). He is the engine that makes the 49ers offense run. Purdy passed for 4,280 yards, a total of 33 touchdowns, and a historic 9.6 yards per attempt. Not bad for a guy who’s been branded by many as the worst remaining signal-caller in the playoffs.

The Key for Both Units

49ers: Don’t get cute. Run. The. Ball. Chances are that the Packers won’t be able to stop a refreshed McCaffrey on the ground and it’s up to Shanahan to take them to task. Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason should see carries as well. A game plan based around the run and play-action shots will result in a resounding 49ers win. Not to say Purdy isn’t capable of winning this game for the 49ers but he shouldn’t have to.

Packers: Stop McCaffrey at all costs. Load the box. 5 down lineman. Whatever it is that will slow down the NFL’s best offensive player and the 49ers’ MVP. Stopping McCaffrey doesn’t necessarily mean the Packers WILL win because Purdy can take advantage of loaded boxes. But Green Bay should shut down McCaffrey and take their chances with Purdy. If you lose to Purdy’s arm, you just have to tip your cap. But allow McCaffrey to run all over you and you’ll be thinking about this game all off-season.

Packers Offense vs 49ers Defense

Green Bay’s offense has a chance of lighting up a 49ers defense with a new defensive coordinator in Steve Wilks and isn’t as strong as prior units under Robert Saleh and DeMeco Ryans had been. But this isn’t to say that they’ve been anything less than elite. The 49ers gave up the 4th lowest passer rating to opposing quarterbacks (79.6) and were tied for the most interceptio0ns of any team (22). Cornerback Charvarius Ward is the team’s best cornerback and he was a 2nd team All-Pro in 2023.

The fall-off has been more apparent in the running game. The 49ers were the league’s best rush defense last season under Ryans, but have fallen to the 16th-ranked rush defense this season, giving up 4.1 yards per attempt. This bodes well for Packers running back Aaron Jones, who has closed out the year playing as well as any running back in the league. Jones has rushed for 100+ yards in 4 straight games and ran for 3 touchdowns in last week’s blowout of Dallas.

Love was great against the zone vs the Cowboys, but the data suggests that is an outlier. Love shredded Dallas’ zone because they just couldn’t stop the RUN game while in zone. This is because they didn’t want the linebackers to do so. San Francisco’s linebacker duo is one of the if not the best in the league. I think Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw’s abilities will make it very much harder for Love to replicate his Dallas success against San Francisco. It will also allow Wilks to deploy a zone-heavy defense on Saturday.

Jordan Love’s second half of the season has put him as one of the top quarterbacks in the league. He’s thrown for 21 touchdowns with just 1 interception and a 116.6 passer rating in his last 9 games. Aaron Jones has had 4 straight games with 110+ rushing yards. If Green Bay can keep this up, they have a chance to beat anybody in the league, including the 49ers and the Ravens.

Keys for Both Units

Packers: Don’t move away from the run. There is a chance the 49ers bottle up Jones and the Packers rush attack early because of their extended rest. If this is the case, Green Bay should still run the ball as much as possible because defenses generally get weaker against the run as the game goes on. Hammer San Francisco in the trenches as much as possible.

49ers: Make Jordan Love uncomfortable. The 49ers can’t just sit back and let Love pick them apart, like Dallas did. Because if Love is given time he WILL pick them apart. So the 49ers need to get home early and often. Make Love uncomfortable and he will make mistakes that young quarterbacks usually do. The 49ers invest a lot into their defensive line. It’s time for those guys to earn their paycheck.

Prediction

This is going to be a good game, but I don’t feel as if it’ll be close or come down the wire. The 49ers should be able to win this one going away. The Packers aren’t in the same vicinity as far as talent goes and the 49ers are good playoff performers under Kyle Shanahan, unlike Dallas. The McCaffrey and Purdy-led offense should have their way with the Green Bay defense. The 49ers defense should do enough to confuse and bottle up Jordan Love.

San Francisco 49ers – 38. Green Bay Packers – 24