Colts' Josh Downs is Tailor-Made for Shane Steichen's Offense

In Philadelphia, Steichen was able to maximize DeVonta Smith as the weak wide receiver number two, but in Indy, Steichen relied on Downs to be that weapon. This isolation of Downs on the backside in empty gave the rookie much easier match-ups to exploit and, as a result, he faced a linebacker in coverage on an astounding 26.3% of his targets.

Here are a handful of clips showcasing Downs in that weakside wide receiver two positioning in empty. His natural quickness and explosiveness led to some wide open quick-hitters against hapless defenders:

Another way the Colts liked to isolate Downs is on the backside of 3x1 formations. The NFL is match coverage league, for the most part, so teams typically like to attack 3x1 sets by having the backside cornerback in man against that single receiver. That look is exactly what the Colts wanted in these situations.

Downs is the Colts quick-winner in the passing game, so they are comfortable enough to leave him on that backside island to feast on whoever he is matched up against. Downs ran a variety of routes from this positioning, with his most deadly ones being whip or quick out.

This play is just oozing potential as Downs refines his game as a receiver, as it is hard to see many cornerbacks being able to match the speed and explosion that Downs has in these isolated situations:

The Master of Hidden Yardage

Josh Downs' success as a rookie shouldn't just be attributed to dominating easier match-ups, though. Sure, Steichen made his life much easier by allowing him to work against linebackers in man situations, but one of the more valuable aspects of Downs' game was his innate ability to create after the catch.

Downs is not built similarly to the Deebo Samuels or the A.J. Browns of the world. He isn't going to run through arm tackles and create plus yardage with physicality after the catch, but he is going to find yardage with how methodical he is with the ball in his hands.

Much like franchise great T.Y Hilton, Downs has a sixth sense for where to go after the ball is in his hands. He understands when and where to turn back up field to gain extra yards and he plays well off of his defender's leverage in the open field. Downs is also outstanding in his transitions from pass catcher to ball carrier, as nearly every short pass to him serves as an extended hand-off out of the backfield.

This ability to create after the catch served the Colts well on multiple occasions in 2023. Indy had the option of throwing short of the sticks on third down to this playmaker, as they developed trust in his ability to quickly turn up field to create the first down yardage needed. These hidden yards contributed massively to the Colts this past season and they should not be overlooked when evaluating Downs' game:

Potential For More

Downs set the bar for his floor in the NFL during his rookie season. He is a quick-win pass catcher that hauls in everything in the short game and can create hidden yardage through his ability to transition up field. That floor can be enough to churn out a long career in the league, but there may be even more left to unlock in his game.

Downs showcased some impressive vertical ability early in the season with Anthony Richardson at quarterback. He caught a 30 yard seam shot against the Los Angeles Rams in week four and then followed it up with another bomb on a sail concept against the Tennessee Titans in week five.

There could be some untapped potential in Downs as more of a vertical threat in 2024, the Colts just need Anthony Richardson to stay healthy in order to see it this next year:

Downs also showed flashes of being able to be more than the play design in 2023. One of the better parts of playing alongside Gardner Minshew is that a play is never truly dead in the backfield. Minshew has the tendency to create when he is fading away from a clean pocket, so his receivers got some real work in the scramble drill this past season.

Downs began to slowly grow as an outlet on these plays throughout the year, and it eventually became natural for him to break off his route and find an opening down field the second Minshew lost his mind in the pocket. Minshew and Downs were able to connect on several big plays on the scramble drill, which is a major asset for a receiver to bring to the table:

The Bottom Line

Wide receiver Josh Downs already has a high floor in the Colts' offense with his ability to serve as the quick-winner underneath that brings a little run after catch juice. The question going forward is how much better this young player can get. Right now he is a high-level role player for the Colts, but does he have the potential to cross that threshold into difference-maker?

For now, I'd tentatively say yes. Steichen is off to a great start in how he utilized his young playmaker but there is still another level this duo can get to. The Colts could begin to lean on him more in the early down pass game to stay ahead of the sticks and make those isolation situations more frequent. They could also siphon off some of the workload from Michael Pittman Jr. and lean on Downs to create a more balanced passing attack.

I also see another level in Downs game coming down the line. He hit the rookie wall about halfway through the season and his overall impact lessened late in the year. With another year of development and conditioning, he should be prepared to take on a heftier role in 2024.

Finally, the X-factor in this entire breakdown is the quarterback throwing Downs the ball. Downs reaching his full potential falls directly in line with Richardson hitting his potential. In an ideal world these two budding stars can grow together, so we have to keep our fingers crossed for a healthy campaign next year.

Overall, Josh Downs did some fantastic things as a rookie and he is already established as the team's quick-win isolation specialist. Time will only tell if can grow past that specialist role but for now, this is a great start for a young player.

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