ESPN projections give Bengals less than 50% chance of making playoffs

The Cincinnati Bengals came within a late Matthew Stafford-to-Cooper Kupp touchdown from winning Super Bowl LVI in February. They return a group of lethal offensive weapons headed by AP Comeback Player of the Year Joe Burrow at quarterback, Pro Bowlers Joe Mixon and Ja'Marr Chase and star wide receiver Tee Higgins, and also have standout safety Jessie Bates back in the fold to lead the secondary, after a lengthy offseason holdout.

Still, with the 2022 NFL regular season about to begin, ESPN projections do not like the Bengals chances at making it back to the Super Bowl, or even make the playoffs.

In a piece published Wednesday morning, ESPN's Bill Barnwell broke down "How all 32 NFL teams can win Super Bowl LVII," listing the teams in order by offseason projections from ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), which estimates each team's chances of winning the Super Bowl. Starting with the 32nd ranked team (Chicago Bears) down to the No. 1 projected team (Buffalo Bills), reigning AFC-champion Cincinnati places only 18th on the list with a 2.8% chance of winning the Super Bowl and a 45.6% chance of making the playoffs.

"The Bengals entered last season with a 0.1% chance of winning Super Bowl LVI. Their chances eventually improved all the way to 78.5% by the fourth quarter of the game itself before falling back to zero after being stopped on fourth down. Joe Burrow and Co. greatly exceeded expectations, but FPI still pegs their Super Bowl chances in 2022 as slightly below league average," Barnwell wrote. "I'm more optimistic about the Bengals' chances, in part because their shift to one of the league's most pass-happy attacks toward the end of the season was spurred by Burrow further recovering from his serious left knee injury. They went 6-1 with Burrow at quarterback from Week 15 on while posting the league's third-highest pass rate in neutral situations. Zac Taylor's team won't turn the ball over twice in seven games like it did over that stretch, but I would expect Cincinnati to be one of the league's best offenses."

The only teams with worse chances to make the playoffs, according to numbers, are the Bears, Houston Texans, New York Jets, Atlanta Falcons, Jacksonville Jaguars, Pittsburgh Steelers, Detroit Lions, Carolina Panthers, Seattle Seahawks, New York Giants, Tennessee Titans, Miami Dolphins, San Franciso 49ers and Washington Commanders. The Steelers, Titans and 49ers all made the playoffs last season as well.

"Even if the Bengals get there, though, there are reasonable concerns about the schedule after they faced what was the league's third-easiest slate according to Football Outsiders a year ago. They get a first-place schedule this season, and after seeing all three of their divisional rivals have their quarterbacks compromised by injuries, the AFC North should be healthier this time around," Barnwell wrote. "The Bengals aren't going anywhere in terms of competitiveness -- we just saw what their upside case looks like -- but their path is tougher this time around."