ESPN projects former No. 1 pick to make superstar leap in 2023

After struggling as a rookie, Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence enjoyed a resurgent sophomore season in 2022, thanks in large part to a revamped offense guided by HC Doug Pederson.

With heightened expectations heading into year three, ESPN's Bill Barnwell expects the former No. 1 overall pick to seize the opportunity and emerge as a full-fledged superstar. 

On Tuesday, Barnwell unveiled his annual list of potential breakout stars for the 2023 season, categorizing players into separate tiers based on what he believes their ceilings can be. Lawrence led the pack in Barnwell's "Pro Bowlers to superstars" category, which also featured Lions offensive tackle Penei Sewell and Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell. 

Last season, Lawrence threw for 4,113 yards, 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions, but it took him some time to settle into Pederson's offense after spending most of his first year under Urban Meyer. Despite Lawrence's early difficulties adjusting to his new scheme, Barnwell points to Jacksonville's Week 8 loss to Denver in London as the turning point of the season. 

"After the trip over the pond, Lawrence morphed into a superstar," Barnwell wrote. "He completed 69.7% of his passes over the remainder of the season while averaging 7.4 yards per attempt. He threw 15 touchdown passes against two picks while leading the Jaguars to a division title, including comeback victories over the Cowboys and Ravens. From Week 9 on, his adjusted completion percentage (75.5%) ranked first in the league.” 

Jacksonville fell to 2-6 following the loss to Denver but won seven of its final nine contests, including a five-game win streak to close out the regular season and clinch the AFC South. 

During his postseason debut, Lawrence threw four interceptions in the first half against the Chargers, though that didn't diminish his confidence. The Jaguars outscored the Chargers 24-3 in the second half, erasing a 27-point deficit to secure the wild-card win in what became the third-largest comeback in NFL postseason history.

Although Jacksonville was knocked out of the playoffs by the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs the next week, the team showed its capability of competing with the NFL's best. Since wideout Calvin Ridley, a 2022 trade deadline acquisition, has completed his gambling suspension, Barnwell believes his addition will only make the Jaguars' offense more explosive this season.  

"Now, with wide receiver Calvin Ridley added to the mix and another full offseason away from the Meyer era, he has the ability to improve on the player we saw in the second half of 2022," Barnwell added regarding his outlook on Lawrence.

Like Barnwell, sportsbooks anticipate Lawrence and the Jaguars to continue building on last season's success. According to OddsChecker, Jacksonville is the favorite to repeat as the AFC South champions, with Lawrence sitting eighth in MVP odds (+1800).

While his talent and situation are in his favor, this season's MVP Award might be an overly ambitious goal for Lawrence, who turns 24 in October. However, if he were to win, he'd become the fourth quarterback in NFL history to earn the honor before the age of 25, joining Baltimore's Lamar Jackson, Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes and Hall of Famer Dan Marino. 

Lawrence will get his first chance to live up to Barnwell's lofty expectations when Jacksonville faces division rival Indianapolis on Sept. 10.