Houston Texans ceiling and floor for 2023

With a first-year head coach, a rookie quarterback and arguably the best rookie pass-rusher in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Houston Texans clearly are rebuilding from the ground up.

How much better they will be from a season ago, when they finished 3--13-1, is still up for debate. Here's our best guess at the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Texans in 2023:

Ceiling: 7-10

Houston lost six one-score games in 2022, but after adding QB C.J. Stroud, receivers Robert Woods and Tank Dell, tight end Dalton Schultz and guard Shaq Mason, the offense has the firepower to flip one or two of those losses into wins.

Conversely, the Texans lost seven games by 10 or more points last season. The San Francisco 49ers had the No. 1-ranked defense in 2022 under former coordinator and new Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans. After adding edge-rusher Will Anderson, defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins, linebackers Denzel Perryman and Henry To’oTo’o and cornerback Jimmie Ward, the revamped defense should keep Houston in more games in 2023.

Houston's three wins last season came against division rivals, so it’s plausible it can split with the Colts, Jaguars and Titans again. Games against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 5, Carolina Panthers in Week 8, Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 9 and Arizona Cardinals in Week 11 are also winnable. (Complete schedule analysis here.) Victories in those games would give Houston seven wins for the first time since 2019 and for only the third time in the past seven seasons.

Floor: 4-13

It could be argued two of Houston's three division rivals (Indianapolis and Jacksonville) are improved, and while the Texans offense and defense appear to be improved, too, that doesn’t necessarily mean that will translate to more wins.

The Texans have five games against 2022 playoff teams, and they also face a Steelers team that just narrowly missed out on the playoffs, the Sean Payton-led Denver Broncos, and the Jets and Saints, who both significantly upgraded at quarterback with Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr, respectively. Houston also gets a Cleveland Browns team that will have a full season of Deshaun Watson at QB.

There are a lot of losses on this schedule, but Houston's chances of splitting with all three teams in the division seem good. Outside the division, though, one can argue that wins will be difficult to come by.