Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders preview, prediction, pick: KC seeks top AFC seed

Chiefs-Raiders preview and pick

Unless the Chiefs are done in by some Jarrett Stidham magic, it sure looks like the first season of the post-Tyreek Hill era will end with 14 wins. It seems like the Chiefs have weathered his departure just fine. Las Vegas gave a great accounting of themselves last week against the 49ers, and Stidham played a fantastic game, but this is unquestionably an organization that needs to rediscover its footing. — Chris Mueller, Yardbarker

The pick: Chiefs 30, Raiders 24

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"We're gonna be the first game back," Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes said of Saturday's Week 18 matchup coming off the Hamlin incident. "There's a job you have to do. You put all this work in for months to try to go out there and play your best football. But when you get on the field, I'm sure it'll be a little bit of a weird feeling because it was such a scary incident that was terrifying that I think everybody saw."

The Chiefs have already locked up the AFC West for the seventh consecutive year, extending a franchise record. They're one of just two teams, alongside San Francisco, currently 5-0 against division opponents, including a 30-29 home win over Las Vegas on "Monday Night Football" in Week 5.

That gave Kansas City its ninth win in the past 10 meetings with Las Vegas, most of which have been notably high-scoring affairs. In that span, the Chiefs have averaged a whopping 35.5 points per game and the Raiders have cleared 28 points four times.

The Raiders took a 17-0 lead early in the second quarter on Oct. 10, but Mahomes went 29-for-43 for 292 yards and tossed four touchdown passes to star tight end Travis Kelce to lead the winning comeback. Mahomes has a 26-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and an 8-1 record against the Raiders for his career.

Coach Josh McDaniels said he feels both teams have changed some personnel and schemes since that last meeting.

Yardbarker Quick Pick

Spread: Kansas City -9

Total: 52.5 points

Patrick Mahomes can set the new NFL record for passing yards in a season with a big effort on Saturday. The Raiders secondary has not shown much resistance of late, with six of the last seven QBs to face Las Vegas going over their passing yards prop total. — Griffin Carroll, Yardbarker

Betting: Patrick Mahomes over 323.5 passing yards (-115 DK)

"The second game of these division rivalries is always a little bit different because you're gonna change some things, there's no question about it," McDaniels said. "Our focus is going to be on getting to know the team they have now, the way they're playing now."

One development since that game is the emergence of rookie Isiah Pacheco as Kansas City's top rusher. The seventh-round pick was promoted over Clyde Edwards-Helaire between the first Raiders game and the Chiefs' bye week. Since Week 10 he's averaged 4.8 yards per carry and 71.1 yards per game with three touchdowns, though he was held to 31 yards in last week's 27-24 escape over the Denver Broncos.

But the biggest personnel difference on either sideline is McDaniels' quarterback.

The Raiders benched Derek Carr before last week's 37-34 overtime loss to the 49ers, all but ensuring the longtime quarterback has played his last game in silver and black. Jarrett Stidham made his first career start and completed 23 of 34 passes for 365 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions.

It was Stidham's first start since throwing for 371 yards in his college finale at Auburn in the 2018 Music City Bowl against Purdue.

Stidham was limited in practice Tuesday with an injury to his throwing elbow but participated fully Wednesday. McDaniels said he wasn't "overly concerned" about Stidham's availability. Carr is away from the team to mitigate distractions, so undrafted rookie Chase Garbers would be the next man up if Stidham can't go.

NFL rushing leader Josh Jacobs (1,608 yards, 12 touchdowns) and star receiver Davante Adams (1,443 yards, 14 touchdowns) also appeared on the injury report for the Raiders. Jacobs was limited Tuesday with hip and oblique injuries and took a personal day Wednesday, while Adams (illness) was limited Tuesday before returning in full Wednesday.

The Chiefs activated wide receiver Mecole Hardman (pelvis) from injured reserve. He hasn't played since Nov. 6 and was limited Wednesday. Kicker Harrison Butker sat out with back spasms, and guard Joe Thuney (ankle), cornerback L'Jarius Sneed (hip) and receiver Skyy Moore (hand) were limited.