Keys to a Browns Victory in Week 1

It will be important for the Browns offensive line to set the tone early. I would expect the Browns to start off mixing the running game with quick screens to the running backs and tight ends. Screen passes are a staple of the Kevin Stefanski offense. If the offensive line can create holes in the running game and the screen passes are effective, the Browns will be able to control the time of possession, reducing the number of drives a potentially explosive offense for the Panthers would have.

Jacoby Brissett does not need to be great for the Browns to win. He needs to be efficient. The Browns are unlikely to win a game in which they pass 30 or more times. The Panthers’ secondary has very talented players like Jeremy Chinn and Jaycee Horn, among others. Brissett’s limitations and this talented secondary would make for a really long day. This is why dominating the line of scrimmage and running the ball early and often is so important. If the Browns keep having long 3rd downs or if they get down by multiple scores, the pressure on Brissett and an unproven wide receiving corps would likely prove too much to overcome.

Defensive Key to the Game:

Make the Panthers one-dimensional. Christian McCaffery, when healthy, is the most dynamic and versatile offensive weapon in football. Entering his 6th season, McCaffery has 6,602 total yards (rushing and receiving), an average of 113.8 yards per game. That is in 58 games after playing 10 games combined in 2020 and 2021 due to injuries. The Panthers also have running backs, Chuba Hubbard and D’Onta Foreman. Hubbard, a rookie last year, ran for 612 yards on just 3.6 yards per carry. It is hard to tell if that is what his production will be like for the remainder of his career as the Panthers had a terrible offensive line last year. Foreman enters the 2022 season coming off his best season, where he had 566 yards in just 9 games last year for the Titans. He also had a respectable 4.3 yards per carry average.

The Panthers have several new starters on the offensive line, including Ikem Ekwonu, the 6th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Going into the draft, many thought he was the best offensive lineman in the draft. While his talent is unquestioned, what can be questioned is if he is up to the task of blocking Myles Garrett. Browns castoff Austin Corbett had a good season for the Rams last year and will be starting at right guard. Overall, the Panthers offensive line has a lot to prove after a rough year last year.

Stopping the running game for the Panthers is not easy, but it must be done. If McCaffery gets into open space consistently, he will make the linebackers and secondary miss tackles and take bad angles. The key will be to stop the running game at the point of attack. The Browns have the greatest defensive end in the game in Myles Garrett. (For anyone saying TJ Watt, he is a linebacker). If he and Jadeveon Clowney, a great run defender, can set the edge it should be enough for the defensive tackles and all other box defenders to get to their gaps, it should make for a long day for the offensive line.

By containing the running game, the Browns will force the Panthers to throw. Baker Mayfield is best when throwing on the run, typically scrambling or in bootleg scenarios. If the Browns are able to then keep Baker in the pocket, he can get erratic. Mayfield is consistently inconsistent. Nothing sums Baker Mayfield up more than this quote from Nick Chubb.

Who knows, maybe will finally get that first opening day win for the Browns…

Prediction: Browns 24 – Panthers 13