'MNF' best bets: Focus on the running backs

Hopefully you're sitting pretty after an exciting weekend in sports and ready to roll over some winnings into a fresh week. We're right in the thick of it now with "Monday Night Football" and two divisional-round series. Oh, it feels good to be in October.

How to play Packers-Raiders right

On paper, the clear vulnerabilities for both defenses is on the ground. Neither has shown any ability to slow down opposing RBs up to this point. Green Bay has allowed 4.5 yards per carry and 115.3 rushing yards per game to running backs, while the Raiders have seen 4.3 yards/carry against them and 110.5 yards/game to RBs.

It's for that reason we focus on the running backs on each side, though we'd prefer to take a conservative approach and water down their totals.

Aaron Jones should see a larger role this week after he saw just a few carries in a return from injury Week 4. Jones has been far more efficient with the ball in his hands compared to fellow Packer AJ Dillon, averaging 4.2 yards/carry. We like Jones down at 40+ rushing yards, a number he's hit in 12 of his last 19 games.

As for Josh Jacobs, few running backs have been worse running the football. The 2022 rushing leader is averaging a horrible 2.7 yards/carry. That's tough to back, but the volume is there, as Jacobs has seen 62 carries in four games and no other running back comes close on this team. This would be the opponent to get something going against, so we'll bank on Jacobs hitting 60+ yards. He's gone for 62 and 58 his last two weeks, and dating back to last year, he's averaged 86.6 rushing yards per game.

Betting: Aaron Jones 40+ rushing yards & Josh Jacobs 60+ rushing yards (+100 DraftKings)

Wheels up in Atlanta

Philadelphia took Game 1 of this series 3-0, and now the Phillies hand the ball back to their ace in Zack Wheeler for a chance to take a 2-0 lead and win this series in Philly on Wednesday night.

Wheeler has been simply superb in these past two postseasons, and he's been rolling of late, allowing just one earned run in three of his last four starts.

These Phillies can hit Max Fried. They've done it before. Five of the projected nine starters have at least a .275 average against Fried, and this team in general is just rolling.

We're riding the momentum of our October darlings.

Betting: Philadelphia moneyline (+130 DraftKings)

In the news ...

NFL Week 5 winners, losers and rookies to watch — It was another jam-packed football Sunday. Is there any other kind? Philadelphia and San Francisco both moved to 5-0 and remain the league's only unbeatens. The Eagles handled the Rams while the Niners blew the doors off the Cowboys. So much for a good prime-time game finally. San Fran is currently +350 to win the Super Bowl, while Philly is +800.

The Steelers had a crazy comeback to beat Baltimore and knot up the top of the AFC North, while the Lions look dominant. Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and the Bengals finally had an explosive offensive day, and the Colts and Jaguars both had huge wins to advance to 3-2. Mac Jones and the Patriots look like one of the worst teams in football, and Sean Payton fell to the guy he replaced in Denver.

Looking for Rookie of the Year bets? De'Von Achane did it again, going for 100+ yards and a touchdown for the third straight week. He's now +400 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, tied with Puka Nacua and just behind C.J. Stroud. Meanwhile, Jalen Carter notched two more sacks and is now -175 to win DROY.

Rangers take 2-0 series lead over Orioles while Twins-Astros is all knotted up — MLB expertly maneuvered the NFL schedule to avoid double scheduling any city's baseball team with its football squad, meaning we saw only two divisional-round series yesterday. Texas beat Baltimore 11-8 on Sunday to take a commanding 2-0 series lead back home, needing just one more win to advance to the ALCS. Meanwhile, Minnesota was able to grab a game in Houston and take home-field advantage in this series. The Rangers are the current World Series favorites at +340, followed by the Phillies at +400.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll, the guy who won $8K on a $20 NFL parlay. Follow him on Substack: griffybets.substack.com.