'MNF' Week 14: Two touchdown props for Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants

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If he does go, we still prefer Dillon here, as he leads the team in red zone work and total volume out of the backfield, and with a banged up Aaron Jones, Dillon would likely continue seeing the bulk of the work.

If Jones is out, however, we'd like to flag that there's some awesome value on backup running back Patrick Taylor. Taylor has come on strong of late, quite involved in this offense. He's taken 16 carries and 12 targets, with four of those looks coming in the red zone.

The Giants run defense is a major issue, and they're allowing the sixth-most touchdowns per game to running backs.

So again, Dillon is here to represent this read as a whole. He's a fine bet to score, but if Jones can't go the price on Taylor cannot be ignored. We'd personally stay off Jones even if he does play, just because he's been in and out of the lineup all year, making it hard to trust him here.

Jayden Reed (+200 PointsBet)

In case you missed it, Christian Watson is out this week, which should make Jayden Reed all the more trustworthy as one of Jordan Love's top targets. Reed has averaged 3.4 receptions per game on 4.9 targets per game with Watson this season, and 3.0 receptions on 6.7 targets per game in the three games without him.

The reception totals might be lower, but it's that target number we really like to see. It's worth flagging because the Giants have allowed the fifth-most receptions per game to WRs this season, suggesting Reed and company should be able to find space tonight.

New York has also allowed the 10th-most touchdowns per game to wide outs, and in the past two games sans Watson, Reed has seven red zone targets and two touchdowns. That's an ideal workload and worth backing at +200.