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NFL divisional round mismatches: Where Ravens, 49ers, Packers have edge

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson led the NFL with 26 TD passes in the red zone. Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

NFL divisional-round mismatches: How Ravens, 49ers, Packers may dominate

By Michael Nania | Last updated 1/7/20

Yardbarker's Michael Nania analyzes the biggest positional mismatches during the NFL playoffs.

GLOSSARY:

DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average): A method of evaluating teams, units or players in a comparative fashion. It takes every play during the NFL season and compares each to a league-average baseline based on situation.

EPA (Estimated Points Added): The measure of a play’s impact on the score of the game. It represents the difference between a team's "expected points value" (the net point value a team can expect given a particular combination of down, distance and field position) before and after a play.

Ravens red zone offense vs. Titans red zone defense

Why Baltimore has the edge: The Ravens led the NFL in points per drive (2.95), thanks in part to their No. 2-ranked red zone offense that scored a touchdown 67.2 percent of trips inside the 20. Impending MVP Lamar Jackson was unstoppable, leading the NFL with 26 passing touchdowns (zero interceptions) and a 116.4 passer rating in the red zone. The Ravens achieved a first down or touchdown on a league-leading 45.2 percent of their red zone passing plays.

Why Tennessee will struggle: The Titans' offense was the only one better than Baltimore's in the red zone (75.6 percent). Perhaps the experience of beating up on a bad red zone defense in practice helped it. The Titans' defense ranked 31st in the red zone, giving up a touchdown on 68.1 percent of trips. On the plus side, Tennessee held the Patriots to one touchdown on three red zone trips in the wild-card round.

Run defense powered the Titans' clutch goal-line stands in New England, but stopping the pass is their primary weakness in the red zone, making them a major mismatch for the Ravens' elite red zone aerial attack. The Titans allowed a first down or touchdown on 43.1 percent of red zone passing plays, second worst in the NFL. Things were especially bad on the road, where the Titans allowed a whopping 59 percent conversion rate through the air, 10.6 percent worse than any other team.

How Baltimore does it: Baltimore's offense consistently proved it is capable of punching the ball in from anywhere in the red zone, as Jackson threw 11 of his 26 red zone touchdowns from 10 to 20 yards out. The Ravens' greatest strengths coalesced to create that threat, as demonstrated on this 18-yard touchdown pass from Jackson to tight end Mark Andrews. It all starts with Baltimore's dominant offensive line, which obliterates this Houston four-man rush to give Jackson a pristine pocket and a crystal-clear throwing lane down the middle. From the right slot, Andrews beats his man to the inside, showcasing the route-running ability that makes him one of the league's most dangerous pass-catching tight ends. Jackson fires a perfect bullet, and the Ravens find pay dirt on a second-and 17 play from the 18-yard line.

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— Yardbarker All-22 (@22Yardbarker) January 7, 2020

49ers DT DeForest Buckner vs. Vikings LG Pat Elflein

Why Buckner has the edge: San Francisco's fourth-year defensive tackle out of Oregon has emerged as one of the NFL's best interior linemen. For the third straight year, Buckner set a career high in pressures, with 55, tied for seventh among interior defensive linemen. Bucker is one of four interior defenders, along with the Rams' Aaron Donald, Philadelphia's Fletcher Cox and Pittsburgh's Cameron Heyward, to rank in the top seven at the position in pressures in each of the past three seasons.

Buckner finished the 2019 regular season on a tear, tying for second among all players with 20 pressures over the final three weeks. He was tied with teammate Arik Armstead, and the man atop the list was another Niner, rookie Nick Bosa (21). San Francisco's elite line play allows each opportunities for one-on-one battles, furthering the front's overall dominance.

Why Elflein will struggle: He had a rough 2019 in pass protection, ranking 62nd of 64 qualified guards in pass blocking efficiency. He allowed the third-most sacks (six) and 10th-most total pressures (32) at the position despite playing the 47th-most snaps in pass protection (451).

While Elflein has never lined up across from Buckner in the NFL (the two did play in the 2014 college football championship game), he has struggled against similarly talented players. Elflein, an Ohio State product, played against four of the top-10 interior defenders in pressures this season — Green Bay's Kenny Clark, Kansas City's Chris Jones, Philadelphia's Fletcher Cox and Washington's Matt Ioannidis. In those games, Elflein allowed 14 pressures and was called for four penalties. (He averaged of 3.5 pressures and one penalty per game.) Comparatively, Elflein averaged 1.7 allowed pressures and 0.4 penalties in his other 11 regular season games.

How Buckner does it: Buckner racked up 35 pressures from the right side of the defense, fourth most among interior defenders. 65.3 percent of Buckner's rushes came from the right side, setting him up for a good number of matchups against Elflein.

An elite combination of size, length and balance make Buckner tough for interior linemen to handle on stunts. On this play, Buckner (#99, lined up over left guard's outside shoulder) does an excellent job maintaining his balance after being passed off inside by veteran left guard Ramon Foster (#73) of the Steelers. Buckner crashes hard into the A-gap, opening space for Fred Warner to get home through the B-gap. Foster tries to use Buckner's momentum against him, but Buckner bounces off the center to stay upright and continue his path to the quarterback, all in one fluid motion. Buckner, Bosa and Warner meet up for a triple takedown of Mason Rudolph, forcing the third-down incompletion.

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— Yardbarker All-22 (@22Yardbarker) January 7, 2020

Packers pass rush vs. Seahawks offensive line

Why Green Bay has the edge: Za'Darius Smith, who led the NFL with 93 pressures, spearheads Green Bay's versatile pass rush. He also tied for the league lead with 37 quarterback hits and ranked sixth with 13.5 sacks. Fellow free-agent signee Preston Smith ranked eighth in sacks (12), 13th in quarterback hits (23) and 29th in pressures (55).

Kenny Clark completes the star trio, joining Za'Darius Smith as yet another Packer who was among the most dominant pass rushers in the league. Clark was a hidden gem, ranking just 58th in sacks (six) and 128th in hits (seven) but collecting 62 pressures, second most among interior defenders behind only the transcendent Aaron Donald. Clark's total of 52 hurries, one shy of Donald's position-leading 53, provided a ton of hidden value that went unnoticed by casual fans.

Why Seattle will struggle: Seattle is banged-up along the offensive front. Elite left tackle Duane Brown has missed the past three games following knee surgery, and is unlikely to play in Green Bay. Left guard Mike Iupati (knee) missed Seattle's wild-card victory, after appearing in all 16 regular-season games. Center Justin Britt's season ended after eight weeks (ACL injury).

The injuries leave Seattle facing a bevy of mismatches. If Iupati cannot go, second-year man Jamarco Jones will get another start at left guard. It would be just the second start of Jones' career at that position -- he made his first against Philadelphia in the wild-card round. That is an enticing matchup for Clark. If Brown cannot go, George Fant will fill in once again at left tackle. Fant, who ranked 75th of 84 qualified tackles in pass blocking efficiency, would see a lot of time against Za'Darius Smith, who led the league with 25 quarterback hits from the right side. That spells major trouble for QB Russell Wilson and the Seahawks.

How Green Bay does it: Za'Darius Smith took full advantage of mismatches all season. Here, Smith (#55, left defensive end) draws a matchup against Chargers right tackle Sam Tevi (#69). He ranked 53rd of 57 qualified tackles in pass blocking efficiency, and the difference in talent between the players is apparent on this play. Smith attacks Tevi with an aggressive bull rush, then disengages and rips underneath to win inside. Philip Rivers evades the initial pressure, but Smith shows off his nonstop motor and combines with Tyler Lancaster for the sack.