NFL Divisional Round preview and picks

CINCINNATI (11-7) AT TENNESSEE (12-5), Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET

TV: CBS        Line: Tennessee -3.5

Beware the Bengals, a very live underdog in this game. In many ways, Cincinnati got the hard part out of the way in beating the Raiders. That win, one forged on the back of a crisp performance by Joe Burrow, and a last-second stand by the Bengals’ defense, got the team a victory that allowed for a collective exhalation by a franchise and a city that had known only postseason failure for over three decades. Cincinnati scored on six separate drives, and on all four of their drives in the first half, save a kneel down with mere seconds remaining. Demons summarily exorcised, the Bengals might now have to deal with a more tangible hell-raiser; Titans running back Derrick Henry. Henry handled some contact in practice Wednesday, but a final decision on his status won’t be made until Friday. Even if Henry plays, the Bengals have enough firepower to beat the Titans. Whether they do it depends on if they can be more efficient at turning long drives into touchdowns than they were against the Raiders.

Henry’s status is crucial for Tennessee. If he plays, and he’s unhampered and fresh, the Bengals will be in some trouble and will be under even more pressure to max out their drives, as they might not get many of them. Cincinnati has been average when it comes to defending the run, but if they get gashed, the Titans, whose average drive length of 3:04 was fourth-best in the league, will simply play defense using their offense, and keep Burrow and his talented cast of weapons off the field. Ryan Tannehill, despite being without various weapons for large chunks of the year, has still battled his way to respectable numbers and authored three fourth-quarter comebacks, or one more than Burrow. These are two evenly-matched teams, so third-down performance, red-zone performance, coaching, and turnovers will likely make the difference.

Look smart to your friends:

-Trey Hendrickson doesn’t get the kind of press that many other elite pass rushers do, but he is one of just two players in the NFL (T.J. Watt) with 13+ sacks in each of the last two seasons.

-Ryan Tannehill enters this game on a roll. In his last three starts of the season, he posted 7 touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 125.3 passer rating. He’s also the only QB in the NFL with 7+ rushing touchdowns in each of the last two seasons.

The pick: Bengals 28 Titans 23

SAN FRANCISCO (11-7) AT GREEN BAY (13-4), Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET

TV: FOX        Line: Green Bay -5.5

It looks like ace linebacker Fred Warner will play after a major ankle injury scare turned out to be just that – a scare. Nick Bosa was limited in Wednesday practice but still has a chance to play in this game. You know what that means, right? The 49ers’ status as The Team No One Wants To Play could get even stronger. San Francisco’s offense is dangerous and hard to stop, as the Cowboys found out, and if Jimmy Garoppolo plays a clean game, they could very well upset even the juggernaut Packers. San Francisco is 6-0 when Garoppolo doesn’t turn the ball over, 4-6 when he has at least one. He made things more interesting than they needed to be against Dallas thanks to a brutal interception; if he does the same thing against Aaron Rodgers, chances are he won’t be as fortunate. If the 49ers get an early lead, they have a real chance to advance; Garoppolo wouldn’t have as much burden on him, and ghosts of home playoff losses past might start to haunt the Packers. A slow start, though? That might spell doom.

The Packers and Rodgers got to rest up and enjoy the spoils of a bye week, though Matt LaFleur took the calculated risk of playing Rodgers for half of Green Bay’s meaningless regular-season finale. If Rodgers comes out looking sharp against the 49ers, LaFleur will look like a genius. The Packers’ defense is going to be vulnerable against San Francisco’s running attack, but if Rodgers can get them an early lead, particularly of more than one score, it might compel Kyle Shanahan to put the ball in Garoppolo’s hands more often. That is no doubt what the Packers want, as there’s no way the Niners will win an aerial shootout. Green Bay wasn’t as dominant as their 13-4 record indicated; the Packers boast just the 10^th-best scoring offense and 13^th-best scoring defense. That said, they have balance and they have a quarterback who has 20 touchdowns and no interceptions in his last seven games. I like their chances.

Look smart to your friends:

-George Kittle’s is known as a great all-around tight end, but his receiving prowess is truly elite. Kittle’s 4,489 receiving yards are the third-most by a tight end in his first five seasons in NFL history.

-Aaron Jones is in elite company; he and Derrick Henry are the only two players with 1,000+ scrimmage yards and 10+ touchdowns in each of the past three seasons.

The pick: Packers 34 49ers 24

LOS ANGELES (13-5) AT TAMPA BAY (14-4), Sunday, 3 p.m. ET

TV: NBC        Line: Tampa Bay -3

Everyone’s afraid of the Rams now, right? Cam Akers’ return gives Los Angeles another difficult-to-defend dimension to their offense, and Matthew Stafford should have gotten any major playoff jitters out against the Cardinals. Add in the fact that Aaron Donald and Von Miller might be going up against a depleted Buccaneers offensive line, and that Jalen Ramsey should be able to lock down on Mike Evans, and it sure seems like the Rams are in a great position to head to the NFC Championship Game. There is, of course, one big hang-up for Los Angeles. That would be Stafford, who has to go on the road and beat a team for the second time this season. That’s no easy task in any circumstance; it’s particularly difficult when the team you’re trying to beat is quarterbacked by a man who has served as a sort of total antithesis to you; less pure talent, but a freakish ability to win. And win. And win. And then win some more. Stafford and the Rams can absolutely do this. But make no mistake, they’ll have to put the stake through the defending champs.

Speaking of Tom Brady and his merry band, they cruised past Philadelphia but paid a hefty toll in the health department. Center Ryan Jensen, tackle Tristan Wirfs, receiver Breshad Perriman and running back Ronald Jones all did not participate in Thursday’s practice. Jensen and Wirfs’ respective absences are particularly troubling because, for all of Brady’s unfathomable, age-defying brilliance, the one thing he can’t do is avoid pressure. He’s managed the neat trick of both getting rid of the ball in lightning-fast fashion, but also challenging defenses down the field. This is mostly the byproduct of things being on schedule. If the protection is breaking down, Brady isn’t likely to have a moment of improvisational brilliance, particularly if the pressure is coming from up the middle, from Donald. Having said all of that, the game is in Tampa, the Bucs are the defending champions, and despite all they’ve had to deal with this year, be it injuries or Antonio Brown’s antics, they’re still standing and can still carve up anyone. Plus, are you really prepared to count out Touchdown Tom?

Look smart to your friends:

-Akers has been a major impact player in the postseason. In three career playoff games, he has 367 scrimmage yards and two rushing touchdowns and is looking for his fourth-straight playoff game with 95+ yards from scrimmage. Only Travis Kelce (four games) has a longer active streak.

-Here is a list of categories in which Brady is the all-time postseason leader: games (46), wins (35), passing yards (12,720), passing touchdowns (85), Super Bowl titles (7), Super Bowl MVPs (5). Pretty good, right?

The pick: Buccaneers 31 Rams 26

BUFFALO (12-6) AT KANSAS CITY (13-5), Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET

TV: CBS        Line: Kansas City -2

Ah, the Super Bowl before the Super Bowl. At least, that’s what this game feels like. Buffalo’s humiliation of the Patriots, one that saw the Bills cash in with touchdowns on all seven of their non-victory formation possessions, was one of the most incredible displays of offensive football in any game, ever. The Chiefs tried their best to match it by exploding for six consecutive touchdowns, five of them in a 10-minute, 30-second span against the Steelers, one that turned a 7-0 deficit into a 42-21 win. Buffalo boasts the third-best scoring offense and top scoring defense in the league, and all 12 of their wins this year have been by at least 12 points, making them just the eighth team since the 1970 merger to accomplish that feat. Each of the previous seven to do so won the Super Bowl. Buffalo is 0-6 in games decided by fewer than 12 points this season, so it’s fair to wonder how they’ll perform in a situation where blowing out the opposition will be difficult (yes, I know they already did it to the Chiefs, in Kansas City no less, earlier this year). That said, if Josh Allen plays as he did against New England – perfectly – none of these stats will matter, because the Bills will win.

Kansas City got to sharpen themselves up against the Steelers, and in that way, the game served as a way for the Chiefs to knock off some rust, get out whatever playoff jitters may have been present, and then get themselves into a rhythm. Everyone knows what Kansas City is capable of; Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill have always been lethal when paired with Patrick Mahomes, and now Byron Pringle looks like a real threat, and Jerick McKinnon provided a major backfield spark. The Chiefs are looking like they’ll be close to fully healthy for this game, which means it really might just be a fireworks-filled shootout, where two of the league’s most gifted quarterbacks trade scores and see who’s left standing at the end. If that is in fact the way things go, how can you not bet on Mahomes and Kansas City? They’ve been there, done that. The Bills still have to prove they can. It’s not that I doubt them; anyone who watched what they did to Bill Belichick’s defense should know better, it’s just that it’s hard to go against the bully until you see them get knocked out when it counts.

Look smart to your friends:

-The Bills’ offense got all the attention last week, but the defense will need some stops or turnovers to slow Kansas City. To that end, safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde each tied career highs with five interceptions in 2021. Hyde and Poyer are the only pair of teammates each with 5+ interceptions this season.

-Kelce has been an incredible force in the playoffs. He’s looking for his fifth postseason game in a row with 100+ receiving yards and has five receiving touchdowns in his last three games against the Bills.

The pick: Chiefs 41 Bills 34