NFL Week 13: Picks and preview

STREAMING: PRIME VIDEO            LINE: Buffalo -3.5

Let’s establish this much: The Lions are a tough team to beat. They are 4-7, but they’ve given good teams very good games this year. That said, Buffalo was sloppy and listless at times in Detroit, in part because Josh Allen was. Then, with the score tied late, Allen uncorked a fantastic throw to Stefon Diggs, setting up Buffalo’s game-winning field goal. Plays like that are why the Bills, as long as they don’t completely self-destruct, will continue to be a threat to win it all. Steelers fans might call Hunter Henry’s non-touchdown touchdown karmic payback for a similar, infamous play involving Jesse James in 2017. Patriots fans can fault that call all they want, but what defined their loss to the Vikings was an inability to get to Kirk Cousins when it mattered most and to cover Justin Jefferson at all. Well, that and a shocking special teams breakdown – two of them, actually – which means Bill Belichick will be on the warpath in the film room this week.

Look smart to your friends:

-Isaiah McKenzie, fresh off a season-high 96 receiving yards last week, had career highs in catches (11) and yards (125) the last time the Bills and Patriots met.

-Mac Jones is coming off a game where he set season highs in completions, passing yards (also a career-high, at 382), touchdown passes, and passer rating. He has a 100+ rating in 3 of 4 career home starts against the AFC East.

The pick: Bills 27 Patriots 21

TV: FOX            LINE: Green Bay -4.5

At this point, wouldn’t it be better for the Packers to just go with Jordan Love and see what he’s got? Even if Aaron Rodgers can tough out the rest of the season (and it seems he’ll try), there’s nothing in it for him or the team. The Packers just have too much ground to make up, even in a terrible conference, and the guy they just gave $150 million guaranteed to is physically battered. They’ve avoided doing it for a long time, but Green Bay needs to start thinking about the future. Justin Fields’ value to the Bears was never more evident than last week when Chicago was more or less powerless to keep up with the Jets without him. Things got even worse afterward with the news that Darnell Mooney’s season is likely over after he suffered an ankle injury. The Bears have their quarterback, but they’re going to be picking near the top of the draft, and losses like the one to the Jets make it abundantly clear how much work they have to do.

Look smart to your friends:

-Christian Watson set a career-high with 110 receiving yards last week and is going for his fourth-straight game with a touchdown reception.

-Assuming he can go in this one, Fields can become the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era with a rushing touchdown in six straight games.

The pick: Packers 26 Bears 17

TV: FOX            LINE: Detroit -1

I still can’t believe what I saw from Trevor Lawrence in the fourth quarter against Baltimore. Lawrence, for the first time in his career, looked like the generational talent he was purported to be. He made big throw after big throw to beat the Ravens, most of which were of a high degree of difficulty variety. That he did all of this without Travis Etienne was even more impressive. The Jags’ remaining schedule is hardly pleasant, but if Lawrence can use this game as a springboard, I wouldn’t feel comfortable if I was any of those opponents. Not really sure why this picks column adopted the Lions as sort of a lovable scamp of a team, but it did. And it seems a wise choice because Detroit continues to impress, even in defeat. (If you hate the concept of moral victories, I’m sorry.) The Lions weren’t perfect against the Bills, but they gave Buffalo everything they could handle and looked like the better team for good chunks of the game; their defense even held up, considering the opponent. Dan Campbell has something good percolating.

Look smart to your friends:

-Turnovers have been a big issue for Lawrence this year, but he’s got no interceptions in five of his last six starts and is coming off a career-best 129.8 passer rating last week.

-Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of just three NFC receivers (Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp) with 3+ games with 9+ catches and 100+ receiving yards this season.

The pick: Jaguars 33 Lions 30

TV: CBS            LINE: Minnesota -3

Zach Wilson can’t play quarterback for the Jets again this year, unless everyone ahead of him on the depth chart gets hurt. New York looked like a different team with Mike White at the helm; White threw for 315 yards and 3 touchdowns, Garrett Wilson looked like a star, and the offense looked not only competent but dangerous. We’ve seen White come in and light it up for brief stretches before; will this time be different? If it is, the Jets are going to be a very tough out. The curse of being Kirk Cousins is that once you get the reputation as a guy who doesn’t come through in crunch time, it tends to stick, at least until you make it to a Super Bowl. So it goes that Cousins’ work against the Patriots will be lauded but quickly forgotten if he regresses. Justin Jefferson played a big part, for sure, but Cousins outplaying Mac Jones down the stretch was the thing that separated Minnesota and New England. He, Kevin O’Connell and the team deserve credit for a nice bounce-back win.

Look smart to your friends:

-White’s big game made some history. He joined Kurt Warner as the only quarterbacks in NFL history with 300+ passing yards, 3+ touchdown passes and a 75+ completion percentage in two of his first four career starts.

-What superlative from Jefferson would you like this week? He has 21 career games with at least 100 receiving yards, the most ever by a player in his first three seasons.

The pick: Vikings 28 Jets 20

TV: FOX            LINE: Washington -2.5

Well, well, well, what do you know? When the Commanders looked like they were in big trouble late in the game, their defensive line bailed them out. Daron Payne got his hand on a Marcus Mariota throw, and Kendall Fuller picked it off to seal a win that looked anything but likely prior to the play. Washington continues to win with that defensive line, as well as a strong, ball-control running game. The Commanders rolled up 176 yards against Atlanta, their fourth-straight game with at least 125, and sixth in their last seven. What stat tells the tale of the Giants’ loss to the Cowboys last week? Penalties. Dallas had 13 of them, while New York only had 7, but it sure seemed like the ones called on the Giants were far more impactful. Penalties were a factor, but so was New York’s inability to string together enough plays on offense. Daniel Jones was…okay, I guess? The bottom line is that he couldn’t outplay Dak Prescott, even though Prescott threw two interceptions. That’s sort of been the theme in every Giants loss.

Look smart to your friends:

-Brian Robinson, in addition to making enormous hats wildly popular, set career highs in scrimmage yards and rushing yards last week and also had his first career receiving touchdown.

-Jones has usually fared well against Washington. In five career starts against them, he has 10 touchdowns (9 pass, 1 rush) and a 100.4 passer rating.

The pick: Giants 21 Commanders 17

TV: FOX            LINE: Philadelphia -5.5

Tennessee just never got things going consistently on the ground with Derrick Henry, and as a result, they couldn’t find their way past the Bengals. Henry finished with just 38 yards on 17 carries, and the Titans averaged just three yards per carry as a team. The game wasn’t necessarily cause for alarm or major concern for the Titans, but the Bengals are a quality team, and Tennessee has developed a nasty habit of losing when they see someone good on the other side. The Eagles, in the true style of Rocky Balboa, landed a big early punch, took several from the Packers, then righted themselves and started throwing body blows that Green Bay had no answer for. The Titans pride themselves on physical toughness, but the Eagles are the gold standard in that department at the moment, particularly on offense. Jason Kelce anchors a line that takes over games and produced over 300 rushing yards against the Packers, and Jalen Hurts continues to look like an MVP. What this team is doing works and is the sort of style built to work in the playoffs.

Look smart to your friends:

-Derrick Henry was far from his usual self on the ground last week, but he did set a career-high with 79 receiving yards against the Bengals.

-Hurts was spectacular against the Packers, but Miles Sanders was hardly a slouch. Sanders rushed for a career-high 143 yards against Green Bay and already has a career-high 8 rushing touchdowns this season.

The pick: Eagles 24 Titans 20

TV: CBS            LINE: Baltimore -8

The Broncos are just so, so bad. Russell Wilson is so, so bad. Television cameras caught Wilson getting screamed at by teammate Mike Purcell during the team’s loss to Carolina, and Wilson had the look of a man who knows he still has a lot of guaranteed money coming his way and is just vibing. It’s one thing to lose; it’s another thing to get totally outplayed by Sam Darnold. Is there a bigger disaster situation in the league than Denver? I can’t think of one. The Ravens blew yet another fourth-quarter lead, the third time in four losses they’ve done so, and at the end of the day, they have no one to blame but their defense. Trevor Lawrence absolutely shredded Baltimore on the game-deciding drive; the Ravens couldn’t get pressure, and while Lawrence made some huge throws, comebacks like that just aren’t supposed to happen. Much has been made of Baltimore’s creampuff schedule, but you still have to, you know, beat those teams.

Look smart to your friends:

-Might Latavius Murray have a big game? The last time he went up against the Ravens, he had 113 yards and a touchdown, and has 85+ scrimmage yards and a rushing touchdown in 2 of 3 career games against Baltimore.

-Marcus Peters might be busy in this game. In six career games against the Broncos, Peters has 8 passes defensed.

The pick: Ravens 23 Broncos 16

TV: CBS            LINE: Cleveland -7

The Texans stink, and the Browns haven’t been much better, but the only story anyone will be watching in this game is Deshaun Watson. Watson will return to his first NFL home and go against the team that drafted him exactly 700 days after playing his final game for that franchise, before missing 30 games – 11 due to an NFL suspension – amid numerous allegations of sexual misconduct during massage therapy sessions. He’s likely to give Cleveland’s offense a major jolt, but that won’t be on most people’s minds when he takes the field. Houston is very much the team that was getting pasted by 30 in Miami and not the one that showed signs of life when Mike McDaniel took Tua Tagovailoa out of the game for the entire fourth quarter. The Texans need lots more talent on both sides of the ball, which you already knew, but I guess I’ll give them credit for continuing to battle until the final whistle. Not every team would.

Look smart to your friends:

-Nick Chubb continues to produce in a big way. He’s second in the NFL with 12 rushing touchdowns and third in the league with 1,039 rushing yards, his fourth-straight 1,000-yard season.

-Brandin Cooks is one of just four pass-catchers in the NFL (Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins, Travis Kelce) with 500+ receiving yards in each of the last nine seasons.

The pick: Browns 31 Texans 20

TV: CBS            LINE: Atlanta -1

Kenny Pickett played his best game in the NFL thus far, and though his stats were modest, he put together a gut-check game-winning drive in the fourth quarter after the team’s 16-3 halftime lead had completely evaporated. Only two of Pickett’s 28 attempts were uncatchable passes, and with a little luck and fewer drops, he could have had much better numbers. Also encouraging for Pittsburgh is the fact that Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland were very good in relief of an injured Najee Harris. Atlanta looked like they were going to escape Washington with a win over the Commanders in sloppy conditions until Daron Payne made a big play and dashed their hopes. That said, the Falcons are still right in the thick of things, just a half-game out of first place in the NFC South, on account of the fact that the Buccaneers lost to Cleveland. Normally, a visit from the Steelers would be bad news for Atlanta, but the Falcons can absolutely get this game.

Look smart to your friends:

-After filling the box scores with interceptions in his first several starts, Pickett has now gone three consecutive games without throwing an interception and needs 400 passing yards to join Ben Roethlisberger as the only Pittsburgh rookies with 2,000 plus in a season.

-Tyler Allgeier is quietly putting together a good year; he ranks third among rookies with 552 rushing yards, and third in scrimmage yards, with 639.

The pick: Falcons 26 Steelers 23

TV: FOX            LINE: Seattle -7.5

Don’t look now, but the Seahawks have come back to earth a bit, though it’s through no real fault of Geno Smith, who continued to put up big numbers and mostly diced up the Raiders’ defense. Seattle’s defense was the problem, primarily their complete and total inability to stop Josh Jacobs, who rolled up 229 yards and 2 touchdowns, including the 86-yard game-winner in overtime. The punchless Rams should – key word, should – provide a tonic for that defense. Speaking of Los Angeles, they are rancid. Yes, guys are hurt, and yes, the defense still has talent and pride and made the Chiefs earn everything they got last week, but they failed to crack 200 yards of offense against Kansas City and Bryce Perkins, through no real fault of his own, is just in over his head. Here’s a real question to start considering when it comes to the Rams: If Aaron Donald seriously considered retirement after last year, and Sean McVay seriously considered a jump to broadcasting…why would they want to stick around for what sure looks to be coming next?

Look smart to your friends:

-Smith really hasn’t been the issue at all for Seattle in this mini-swoon. He’s gunning for his fifth game in a row with 2+ touchdown passes and a 100+ passer rating. He’s second in the league with a 107.9 rating this year.

-Taylor Rapp led the Rams and tied his career-high with 12 tackles last week. Good for him!

The pick: Seahawks 27 Rams 16

TV: FOX            LINE: San Francisco -4

The Dolphins looked about as unstoppable as everyone assumed they would against Houston, then took Tua Tagovailoa out and…made bettors and prognosticators (like me) nervous. That’s really all that happened. Miami was never in danger of actually losing, and when they were actually trying, they looked as fearsome as they have all season. This is a scary team, and this week, we find out if the student can outdo the master. The Mike McDaniel-Kyle Shanahan storyline will dominate the run-up to this game, as will the “was it shade or not” discussion that Raheem Mostert’s comments created, but the real matchup is likely to be DeMeco Ryans’ defense versus McDaniel’s offense. That defense shut out the Saints, who in fairness, aren’t very good, but San Francisco’s best on that side of the ball is very impressive. What’s more, they have the kind of quality players at linebacker who might make it difficult for Tagovailoa to exploit the middle of the field, as he seems to do every week. Want a bold take? This game will be a Super Bowl preview.

Look smart to your friends:

-If Tyreek Hill isn’t getting serious MVP consideration, he should be. Hill leads the league with 87 catches and 1,233 yards this year.

-Nick Bosa became just the fifth player since 2000 with a sack in 9 of his first 10 games of a season and ranks third in the NFL with 11.5 sacks this year.

The pick: 49ers 30 Dolphins 28

TV: CBS            LINE: Kansas City -1.5

I would say that the Chiefs were playing with their food against Los Angeles just like Miami was against Houston, but that would be disrespectful to the Rams’ defense, not to mention too charitable to Kansas City’s offense, which was sloppy at times, particularly in the second half, despite not needing to do much of anything against an impotent opponent. They’ll need to be much better if they want to avenge last year’s AFC Championship Game loss. No Joe Mixon, no Ja’Marr Chase, no problem. The Bengals picked up a big-time character win in Nashville, out-toughing the Titans and grinding out an impressive win in the process. It was a workmanlike victory in every way, and that it came without the team’s top two offensive options available should be very encouraging to Cincinnati fans. Holding serve at home against the Chiefs would be a major message not only to Kansas City, but the rest of the AFC.

Look smart to your friends:

-Mahomes’ 320-yard performance last week gave him 38 career games with 300+ passing yards, surpassing Dan Marino for the most by a player in his first seven seasons.

-Tee Higgins has stepped up in Chase’s absence; he’s looking for his fourth game in a row with 7+ catches, and third in a row with 100+ receiving yards.

The pick: Chiefs 31 Bengals 27

TV: CBS            LINE: Los Angeles -1.5

In a pleasant change of pace for the Chargers, they made all the big plays down the stretch to actually win a close game, instead of losing it in horrifying, soul-crushing fashion. Brandon Staley’s decision to go for the win at the end of regulation paid off, and Justin Herbert delivered the goods in a big way. As a result, the Chargers – currently the conference’s ninth seed – are still hanging in the AFC playoff race. Unlike Los Angeles, the Raiders are very much done, unless they go on a crazy run the rest of the way. Even a best-case scenario for Las Vegas still comes out to around 8-9, because a San Francisco-Kansas City gauntlet to end the season seems formidable. What makes the Raiders interesting is their offensive explosiveness. I wouldn’t trust them to be competent for four straight quarters, let alone six more weeks, but if they can keep things going on that side of the ball, they will be entertaining, if nothing else.

Look smart to your friends:

-Mike Williams has a chance to make some interesting NFL history. He can become the first player since Calvin Johnson in 2012 with 100+ receiving yards in six straight road games.

-Josh Jacobs’ 229 yards against the Seahawks was the highest single-game total in Raiders history, in the regular season or playoffs.

The pick: Raiders 30 Chargers 27

TV: NBC          LINE: Dallas -11

The Colts were awful in the first half against Pittsburgh, but thanks to some nice special teams work, they had a chance to steal a victory from the Steelers. However, Jeff Saturday’s inexperience cost them dearly, as he failed to use a timeout before a critical third-down play that was stopped short. The Colts would fail to convert on fourth down, and Saturday later admitted that he had made a mistake by not taking one. Dallas has a nice thing going; their defense is still very stout, and suddenly, Ezekiel Elliott looks like he has some burst in his legs. Tony Pollard scuffled against New York, getting just 3.3 yards per carry, but Elliott ran for 92 on just 16 carries, and CeeDee Lamb got going in the second half. I’m not sure I’d pick the Cowboys to beat Philadelphia or San Francisco in a playoff game, but they certainly have the talent to do it.

Look smart to your friends:

-Yannick Ngakoue might not be the first name that springs to mind when you think of great pass rushers, but he has 8.5 sacks this year and is just the fifth player since 1982 with 8+ sacks in each of his first seven seasons.

-Trevon Diggs is going to do something spectacular in this game. In 11 career prime-time games, he has 18 passes defensed and 7 interceptions.

The pick: Cowboys 26 Colts 19

TV: ESPN            LINE: Tampa Bay -4

Not much to say about the Saints. They got dominated by the Niners, and when they did manage to get a solid drive going, they turned the ball over and shot themselves in the foot. The Saints’ defense put forth a valiant effort, to be fair, but this team is just going nowhere on offense, even with a talent like Chris Olave at wide receiver, and it doesn’t necessarily seem like there’s a plan in place for the future. Tampa Bay came out running the ball and looking impressive against the Browns, and I know what you were thinking; the Bucs had emerged from the bye week ready to seize control of the NFC South and morph into the team no one wants to see in late December. That never happened. The running game was solid, Tom Brady’s numbers looked good, but at the end of the day, Tampa couldn’t stop Jacoby Brissett from leading a game-tying drive in the dying seconds of regulation and couldn’t stop Nick Chubb at all. Lucky for Tampa, they’re still atop the division, but at this point, that isn’t saying much.

Look smart to your friends:

-Cameron Jordan has always been one of the league’s most underrated players; he needs just 1.5 sacks to become the sixth player since 1982 with 7+ sacks in 11 straight seasons.

-The Bucs may have lost, but Rachaad White gave them a jolt of energy, setting career highs in receptions (9) and scrimmage yards (109) last week. White is also going for his third-straight game with 100+ scrimmage yards.

The pick: Buccaneers 19 Saints 16