NFL.com projects Jahmyr Gibbs’ rookie season stats

The Detroit Lions shocked any number of draft observers when they took former Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs with the No. 12 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Given the draft slot and his multi-faceted ability to run and catch, the Lions will need him to be more than just a running back to fulfill his draft value.

But NFL.com isn’t certain that Gibbs will be that dual-threat option from the backfield right away. He could quickly turn into a preferred weapon for quarterback Jared Goff in the Lions offense, or be sequestered into a smaller role for a number of reasons.

As such, NFL.com offered up this final projected stat line for Gibbs: 650 yards on 150 carries for 5 touchdowns plus 55 receptions for 500 yards and another 3 touchdowns.

The best case for Gibbs, fleshed out by NFL.com draft analyst Chad Reuter, involves him ascending into an almost undefined “offensive weapon” role where he’s as dangerous running routes and catching passes as he is taking handoffs.

“Gibbs becomes the offensive weapon the team envisioned, using his speed to make big plays. He gets eight-to-10 carries a game, splitting time with David Montgomery, and four-to-five chances as a receiver each week,” Reuter wrote of the best-case scenario.

If things don’t go well for Gibbs, Reuter highlight two potential pitfalls: Montgomery is efficient and effective with his touches and dominates the rushing game while Gibbs struggles in pass protection. One or both of those things happening could hamstring Gibbs’ ascension in 2023.

“Gibbs’ totes are limited by the success of Montgomery and the rookie doesn’t see a lot of opportunities on third down due to his issues in pass protection. He makes fewer catches than expected as quarterback Jared Goff leans on Amon-Ra St. Brown, Marvin Jones Jr. and rookie tight end Sam LaPorta to matriculate the ball down the field,” Reuter wrote.

The running back taken ahead of Gibbs had a more favorable projection

The outlook on former Texas running back Bijan Robinson is exceedingly positive.

Robinson was a multi-year star at Texas and has already dazzled some in the preseason, picking up right where he left off in college.

So what’s the best case for Robinson in 2023?

“Robinson is the centerpiece of the offense and takes pressure off second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder,” Reuter wrote. “He earns the majority of carries behind a good offensive line and gets a few shots each game as a receiver out of the backfield, using his vision and agility in the open field.”

Reuter has Robinson accounting for 225 carries for 1,125 yards and 10 touchdowns, while also recording 50 catches for 400 yards and three touchdowns. That would be quite the rookie season and would presumably put Robinson in the running for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.