Sunday Six-Pack: Week 9 NFL betting guide

Hit the road: Derek Carr over 250.5 passing yards (-114 FanDuel)

As I was navigating through the week's prop research, this entire New Orleans Saints roster kept popping up. Chicago's secondary is one of the worst in the NFL, so that made all of the Saints WRs look enticing. Then you see the Bears allow a lot of receptions to RBs and TEs, and it's like, how do we choose?

Then it hit me, we don't have to! Instead we pivot to the guy distributing the ball, Derek Carr. Carr has gone over 300 passing yards in three straight games, and here we are needing just 251 to cash us on an over. Justin Herbert tossed 298 last week and the Bears are allowing the third-most passing yards per game this season. Grab Carr's over.

Open the gates: Indianapolis-Carolina over 44 points

Indianapolis has the best over record in the NFL at 6-2, and both defenses have really had their struggles of late. The Colts can't slow down the pass and the Panthers are hopeless against the run. That plays into each team's offensive identities, so points and pace feel imminent here.

Carolina has allowed 37+ points in three of their last five games, while the Colts have allowed 37+ points in three straight games. Bring it on baby.

Death, taxes, Panthers allowing RB touchdowns: Jonathan Taylor TD (-118 Caesars)

No team has allowed more touchdowns to running backs this season than Carolina, currently averaging 2.0 touchdowns allowed per game.

That means good things coming for the Colts backs in a game we like to go over. Jonathan Taylor has a solid price here, and this could very well be the breakout game we've been waiting for. Taylor has just one touchdown this year.

They're just better: Eagles -3

This Philadelphia Eagles-Dallas Cowboys game is maybe the game of the weekend, a huge NFC East test for both sides.

At home, the Eagles feel like the play here. They have the better quarterback, the better offensive line, the better skill-position players and the better defensive line as a whole. That's a lot of plusses here. A win here is huge for Philly heading into the bye, because a gauntlet of Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, Cowboys, Seahawks awaits them afterwards. They need this win, and we think they get it.

Ride the wave: Dalton Kincaid over 38.5 receiving yards (-115 BetMGM)

Since Dawson Knox went down it's been the Dalton Kincaid show in Buffalo. The rookie tight end has finished with 75 and 65 yards his past two games off 15 total targets.

Now he faces a Bengals team allowing the fifth-most receptions per game to tight ends. Just last week, George Kittle turned nine catches into 149 yards. Kincaid's turn in a massive Sunday night game.