Which team has best odds of landing Bill Belichick if he leaves New England?

Bookies.com released the odds for Belichick’s next team on Thursday, with a surprising NFC organization leading the way. The five destinations with the best odds are listed below:

1. Washington Commanders +300 (implied probability 25%)

The Commanders are 4-9 this year and Ron Rivera hasn't had one winning season since joining the team in 2020. What better way for new majority owner Josh Harris to put his stamp on the Commanders than by bringing in a six-time Super Bowl-winning coach? 

Washington has a solid nucleus of young players in place: QB Sam Howell, WRs Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, DT Daron Payne, LB Jamin Davis and DBs Benjamin St-Juste and Kamren Curl. With a likely top-five pick, Belichick could start his tenure by drafting a franchise offensive tackle (Penn State’s Ola Fashanu or Notre Dame’s Joe Alt) or tight end (Georgia’s Brock Bowers) — arguably Washington’s two biggest areas of need.

2. Los Angeles Chargers +375 (implied probability 21.1%)

The writing is clearly on the wall for Brandon Staley, who has a 24-23 record with one playoff loss to show for his two-plus-season tenure in L.A. Belichick landing with the Chargers makes a ton of sense considering he would already have a franchise QB in place in Justin Herbert, and L.A.’s offense is already one of the best in the NFL. 

The Chargers job would free Belichick up to do what he does best: build a defense from the ground up. L.A., which ranks 29th in passing defense and total defense, and 18th in scoring, needs major help at linebacker and defensive back. (The Chargers are tied for the fifth-fewest interceptions, and they allow the third-most yards per catch and fifth-highest passer rating against.) The downside is the Chargers are approximately $45 million over the 2024 salary cap, per Spotrac, which would tie Belichick’s hands a bit.

3. Carolina Panthers +500 (implied probability 16.7%)

Things must be bad in Carolina if employees of the team are sending texts to potential head coach candidates warning them not to take the job. But if ever there were a head coach who would not put up with owner David Tepper’s shenanigans, it’s Belichick.

There are aspects of the Panthers job that are appealing — mentoring 2023 No. 1 pick Bryce Young, having three young defensive building blocks in Derrick Brown, Brian Burns and Jaycee Horn, nearly $40M in cap space next year and playing in a highly winnable NFC South. But Carolina comes with far more pitfalls — an impatient owner, an offensive line that can’t protect its QB, the lack of any offensive skill players, a defense that has the fewest sacks in the NFL — than anything else.

4. Retire +575 (implied probability 14.8%)

It’s tough to see Belichick retiring being just 15 wins behind Don Shula’s all-time record for most head-coaching wins, but stranger things have happened. The 71-year-old Belichick has taken a lot of heat for his 27-34 record after Tom Brady left the Patriots, so maybe not having to deal with the hassle of always being asked whether his success was tied to Brady might not seem so bad? 

5. Tennessee Titans +750 (implied probability 11.8%)

This situation is perhaps the most intriguing of all. The Titans already have a head coach they’re happy with in Mike Vrabel. With Will Levis looking to be Tennessee’s franchise QB, keeping Vrabel around to develop him seems to be in everyone’s best interest.

But it’s been reported that if the Patriots move on from Belichick, they actually have their sights set on Vrabel as his replacement. Obviously, New England would have to compensate the Titans with multiple draft picks should they even entertain the idea of letting Vrabel go, but perhaps a Belichick-for-Vrabel swap makes sense if the latter wants to leave to coach his former team?